broken submodule fix

.gitmodules

@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+[submodule "result_table"]
+	path = result_table
+	url = gitea@gitea-s2i2s.isti.cnr.it:moreo/result_table.git

BayesianKDEy/TODO.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+- Things to try:
+    - Why not optmize the calibration of the classifier, instead of the classifier as a component of the quantifier?
+    - init chain helps? [seems irrelevant in MAPLS...]
+    - Aitchison kernel is better?
+    - other classifiers?
+    - optimize classifier?
+    - use all datasets?
+    - improve KDE on wine-quality?
+- Add other methods that natively provide uncertainty quantification methods?
+    Ratio estimator
+    Card & Smith
+- MPIW (Mean Prediction Interval Width): is the average of the amplitudes (w/o aggregating coverage whatsoever)
+- Implement Interval Score or Winkler Score
+- analyze across shift
+- add Bayesian EM:
+    - https://github.com/ChangkunYe/MAPLS/blob/main/label_shift/mapls.py
+    - take this opportunity to add RLLS:
+        https://github.com/Angie-Liu/labelshift
+        https://github.com/ChangkunYe/MAPLS/blob/main/label_shift/rlls.py
+- add CIFAR10 and MNIST? Maybe consider also previously tested types of shift (tweak-one-out, etc.)? from RLLS paper
+    - https://github.com/Angie-Liu/labelshift/tree/master
+    - https://github.com/Angie-Liu/labelshift/blob/master/cifar10_for_labelshift.py
+    - Note: MNIST is downloadable from https://archive.ics.uci.edu/dataset/683/mnist+database+of+handwritten+digits
+    - Seem to be some pretrained models in:
+        https://github.com/geifmany/cifar-vgg
+        https://github.com/EN10/KerasMNIST
+        https://github.com/tohinz/SVHN-Classifier
+- consider prior knowledge in experiments:
+    - One scenario in which our prior is uninformative (i.e., uniform)
+    - One scenario in which our prior is wrong (e.g., alpha-prior = (3,2,1), protocol-prior=(1,1,5))
+    - One scenario in which our prior is very good (e.g., alpha-prior = (3,2,1), protocol-prior=(3,2,1))
+    - Do all my baseline methods come with the option to inform a prior?
+- consider different bandwidths within the bayesian approach?
+- how to improve the coverage (or how to increase the amplitude)?
+    - Added temperature-calibration, improve things.
+    - Is temperature-calibration actually not equivalent to using a larger bandwidth in the kernels?
+- consider W as a measure of quantification error (the current e.g., w-CI is the winkler...)
+- optimize also C and class_weight? [I don't think so, but could be done easily now]
+
+- remove wikis from repo

BayesianKDEy/_bayeisan_kdey.py

@@ -0,0 +1,351 @@
+from sklearn.base import BaseEstimator
+import numpy as np
+from sklearn.decomposition import PCA
+
+from BayesianKDEy.commons import ILRtransformation, in_simplex
+from quapy.method._kdey import KDEBase
+from quapy.method.confidence import WithConfidenceABC, ConfidenceRegionABC
+from quapy.functional import CLRtransformation
+from quapy.method.aggregative import AggregativeSoftQuantifier
+from tqdm import tqdm
+import quapy.functional as F
+import emcee
+from collections.abc import Iterable
+from numbers import Number
+
+import jax
+import jax.numpy as jnp
+from jax.scipy.special import logsumexp
+import numpyro
+import numpyro.distributions as dist
+from numpyro.infer import MCMC, NUTS
+
+
+class BayesianKDEy(AggregativeSoftQuantifier, KDEBase, WithConfidenceABC):
+    """
+    `Bayesian version of KDEy.
+
+    :param classifier: a scikit-learn's BaseEstimator, or None, in which case the classifier is taken to be
+        the one indicated in `qp.environ['DEFAULT_CLS']`
+    :param val_split:  specifies the data used for generating classifier predictions. This specification
+        can be made as float in (0, 1) indicating the proportion of stratified held-out validation set to
+        be extracted from the training set; or as an integer (default 5), indicating that the predictions
+        are to be generated in a `k`-fold cross-validation manner (with this integer indicating the value
+        for `k`); or as a tuple `(X,y)` defining the specific set of data to use for validation. Set to
+        None when the method does not require any validation data, in order to avoid that some portion of
+        the training data be wasted.
+    :param num_warmup: number of warmup iterations for the MCMC sampler (default 500)
+    :param num_samples: number of samples to draw from the posterior (default 1000)
+    :param mcmc_seed: random seed for the MCMC sampler (default 0)
+    :param confidence_level: float in [0,1] to construct a confidence region around the point estimate (default 0.95)
+    :param region: string, set to `intervals` for constructing confidence intervals (default), or to
+        `ellipse` for constructing an ellipse in the probability simplex, or to `ellipse-clr` for
+        constructing an ellipse in the Centered-Log Ratio (CLR) unconstrained space.
+    :param prior: an array-list with the alpha parameters of a Dirichlet prior, or the string 'uniform'
+        for a uniform, uninformative prior (default)
+    :param verbose: bool, whether to display progress bar
+    """
+    def __init__(self,
+                 classifier: BaseEstimator=None,
+                 fit_classifier=True,
+                 val_split: int = 5,
+                 kernel='gaussian',
+                 bandwidth=0.1,
+                 num_warmup: int = 500,
+                 num_samples: int = 1_000,
+                 mcmc_seed: int = 0,
+                 confidence_level: float = 0.95,
+                 region: str = 'intervals',
+                 explore='simplex',
+                 step_size=0.05,
+                 temperature=1.,
+                 engine='numpyro',
+                 prior='uniform',
+                 reduce=None,
+                 verbose: bool = False, 
+                 **kwargs):
+
+        if num_warmup <= 0:
+            raise ValueError(f'parameter {num_warmup=} must be a positive integer')
+        if num_samples <= 0:
+            raise ValueError(f'parameter {num_samples=} must be a positive integer')
+        assert explore in ['simplex', 'clr', 'ilr'], \
+            f'unexpected value for param {explore=}; valid ones are "simplex", "clr", and "ilr"'
+        assert ((isinstance(prior, str) and prior == 'uniform') or
+                (isinstance(prior, Iterable) and all(isinstance(v, Number) for v in prior))), \
+            f'wrong type for {prior=}; expected "uniform" or an array-like of real values'
+        # assert temperature>0., f'temperature must be >0'
+        assert engine in ['rw-mh', 'emcee', 'numpyro']
+
+        super().__init__(classifier, fit_classifier, val_split)
+        assert all(k.startswith('classifier__') for k in kwargs.keys()), 'unexpected kwargs; must start with "classifier__"'
+        self.classifier.set_params(**{k.replace('classifier__', ''):v for k,v in kwargs.items()})  # <- improve
+
+        self.bandwidth = KDEBase._check_bandwidth(bandwidth, kernel)
+        self.kernel = self._check_kernel(kernel)
+        self.num_warmup = num_warmup
+        self.num_samples = num_samples
+        self.mcmc_seed = mcmc_seed
+        self.confidence_level = confidence_level
+        self.region = region
+        self.explore = explore
+        self.step_size = step_size
+        self.temperature = temperature
+        self.engine = engine
+        self.prior = prior
+        self.reduce = reduce
+        self.verbose = verbose
+
+    def aggregation_fit(self, classif_predictions, labels):
+        if self.reduce is not None:
+            self.pca = PCA(n_components=self.reduce)
+            classif_predictions = self.pca.fit_transform(classif_predictions)
+            #print(f'reduce to ', classif_predictions.shape)
+        self.mix_densities = self.get_mixture_components(classif_predictions, labels, self.classes_, self.bandwidth, self.kernel)
+        #print('num mix ', len(self.mix_densities))
+        return self
+
+    def aggregate(self, classif_predictions: np.ndarray):
+        if hasattr(self, 'pca'):
+            classif_predictions = self.pca.transform(classif_predictions)
+
+        if self.engine == 'rw-mh':
+            if self.prior != 'uniform':
+                raise RuntimeError('prior is not yet implemented in rw-mh')
+            self.prevalence_samples = self._bayesian_kde(classif_predictions, init=None, verbose=self.verbose)
+        elif self.engine == 'emcee':
+            if self.prior != 'uniform':
+                raise RuntimeError('prior is not yet implemented in emcee')
+            self.prevalence_samples = self._bayesian_emcee(classif_predictions)
+        elif self.engine == 'numpyro':
+            self.ilr = ILRtransformation(jax_mode=True)
+            self.prevalence_samples = self._bayesian_numpyro(classif_predictions)
+        return self.prevalence_samples.mean(axis=0)
+
+    def predict_conf(self, instances, confidence_level=None) -> (np.ndarray, ConfidenceRegionABC):
+        if confidence_level is None:
+            confidence_level = self.confidence_level
+        classif_predictions = self.classify(instances)
+        point_estimate = self.aggregate(classif_predictions)
+        samples = self.prevalence_samples  # available after calling "aggregate" function
+        region = WithConfidenceABC.construct_region(samples, confidence_level=confidence_level, method=self.region)
+        return point_estimate, region
+
+    def _bayesian_kde(self, X_probs, init=None, verbose=False):
+        """
+        Bayes:
+            P(prev|data) = P(data|prev) P(prev) / P(data)
+        i.e.,
+            posterior = likelihood * prior / evidence
+        we assume the likelihood be:
+            prev @ [kde_i_likelihood(data) 1..i..n]
+            prior be uniform in simplex
+        """
+
+        rng = np.random.default_rng(self.mcmc_seed)
+        kdes = self.mix_densities
+        test_densities = np.asarray([self.pdf(kde_i, X_probs, self.kernel) for kde_i in kdes])
+
+        def log_likelihood(prev, epsilon=1e-10):
+            test_likelihoods = prev @ test_densities
+            test_loglikelihood = np.log(test_likelihoods + epsilon)
+            return (1./self.temperature) * np.sum(test_loglikelihood)
+
+        # def log_prior(prev):
+            # todo: adapt to arbitrary prior knowledge (e.g., something around training prevalence)
+            # return 1/np.sum((prev-init)**2) # it is not 1 but we assume uniform, son anyway is an useless constant
+
+        # def log_prior(prev, alpha_scale=1000):
+        #     alpha = np.array(init) * alpha_scale
+        #     return dirichlet.logpdf(prev, alpha)
+
+        def log_prior(prev):
+            return 0
+
+        def sample_neighbour(prev, step_size):
+            # random-walk Metropolis-Hastings
+            d = len(prev)
+            neighbour = None
+            if self.explore=='simplex':
+                dir_noise = rng.normal(scale=step_size/np.sqrt(d), size=d)
+                neighbour = F.normalize_prevalence(prev + dir_noise, method='mapsimplex')
+            elif self.explore=='clr':
+                clr = CLRtransformation()
+                clr_point = clr(prev)
+                dir_noise = rng.normal(scale=step_size, size=d)
+                clr_neighbour = clr_point+dir_noise
+                neighbour = clr.inverse(clr_neighbour)
+                assert in_simplex(neighbour), 'wrong CLR transformation'
+            elif self.explore=='ilr':
+                ilr = ILRtransformation()
+                ilr_point = ilr(prev)
+                dir_noise = rng.normal(scale=step_size, size=d-1)
+                ilr_neighbour = ilr_point + dir_noise
+                neighbour = ilr.inverse(ilr_neighbour)
+                assert in_simplex(neighbour), 'wrong ILR transformation'
+            return neighbour
+
+        n_classes = X_probs.shape[1]
+        current_prev = F.uniform_prevalence(n_classes) if init is None else init
+        current_likelihood = log_likelihood(current_prev) + log_prior(current_prev)
+
+        # Metropolis-Hastings with adaptive rate
+        step_size = self.step_size
+        target_acceptance = 0.3
+        adapt_rate = 0.05
+        acceptance_history = []
+
+        samples = []
+        total_steps = self.num_samples + self.num_warmup
+        for i in tqdm(range(total_steps), total=total_steps, disable=not verbose):
+            proposed_prev = sample_neighbour(current_prev, step_size)
+
+            # probability of acceptance
+            proposed_likelihood = log_likelihood(proposed_prev) + log_prior(proposed_prev)
+            acceptance = proposed_likelihood - current_likelihood
+
+            # decide acceptance
+            accepted = np.log(rng.random()) < acceptance
+            if accepted:
+                current_prev = proposed_prev
+                current_likelihood = proposed_likelihood
+
+            samples.append(current_prev)
+            acceptance_history.append(1. if accepted else 0.)
+
+            # if i < self.num_warmup and i%10==0 and len(acceptance_history)>=100:
+            if i % 10 == 0 and len(acceptance_history) >= 100:
+                recent_accept_rate = np.mean(acceptance_history[-100:])
+                step_size *= np.exp(adapt_rate * (recent_accept_rate - target_acceptance))
+                # step_size = float(np.clip(step_size, min_step, max_step))
+                if i %100==0:
+                    print(f'acceptance-rate={recent_accept_rate*100:.3f}%, step-size={step_size:.5f}')
+
+        # remove "warmup" initial iterations
+        samples = np.asarray(samples[self.num_warmup:])
+        return samples
+
+    def _bayesian_emcee(self, X_probs):
+        ndim = X_probs.shape[1]
+        nwalkers = 32
+        if nwalkers < (ndim*2):
+            nwalkers = ndim * 2 + 1
+
+        f = CLRtransformation()
+
+        def log_likelihood(unconstrained, test_densities, epsilon=1e-10):
+            prev = f.inverse(unconstrained)
+            test_likelihoods = prev @ test_densities
+            test_loglikelihood = np.log(test_likelihoods + epsilon)
+            return np.sum(test_loglikelihood)
+
+        kdes = self.mix_densities
+        test_densities = np.asarray([self.pdf(kde_i, X_probs, self.kernel) for kde_i in kdes])
+        # test_densities_unconstrained = [f(t) for t in test_densities]
+
+        # p0 = np.random.normal(nwalkers, ndim)
+        p0 = F.uniform_prevalence_sampling(ndim, nwalkers)
+        p0 = f(p0)
+        sampler = emcee.EnsembleSampler(nwalkers, ndim, log_likelihood, args=[test_densities])
+
+        state = sampler.run_mcmc(p0, self.num_warmup, skip_initial_state_check=True)
+        sampler.reset()
+        sampler.run_mcmc(state, self.num_samples, skip_initial_state_check=True)
+        samples = sampler.get_chain(flat=True)
+        samples = f.inverse(samples)
+        return samples
+
+    def _bayesian_numpyro(self, X_probs):
+        #print("bayesian_numpyro", X_probs.shape)
+        kdes = self.mix_densities
+        # test_densities = np.asarray(
+        #     [self.pdf(kde_i, X_probs, self.kernel) for kde_i in kdes]
+        # )
+        test_log_densities = np.asarray(
+            [self.pdf(kde_i, X_probs, self.kernel, log_densities=True) for kde_i in kdes]
+        )
+        #print(f'min={np.min(test_log_densities)}')
+        #print(f'max={np.max(test_log_densities)}')
+        #print("bayesian_numpyro", test_log_densities.shape)
+        #print("len kdes ", len(kdes))
+        # import sys
+        # sys.exit(0)
+
+        n_classes = len(kdes)
+        if isinstance(self.prior, str) and self.prior == 'uniform':
+            alpha = [1.] * n_classes
+        else:
+            alpha = self.prior
+
+        kernel = NUTS(self._numpyro_model)
+        mcmc = MCMC(
+            kernel,
+            num_warmup=self.num_warmup,
+            num_samples=self.num_samples,
+            num_chains=1,
+            progress_bar=self.verbose,
+        )
+
+        rng_key = jax.random.PRNGKey(self.mcmc_seed)
+        mcmc.run(rng_key, test_log_densities=test_log_densities, alpha=alpha)
+
+        samples_z = mcmc.get_samples()["z"]
+
+        # back to simplex
+        samples_prev = np.asarray(self.ilr.inverse(np.asarray(samples_z)))
+
+        return samples_prev
+
+    def _numpyro_model(self, test_log_densities, alpha):
+        """
+        test_densities: shape (n_classes, n_instances,)
+        """
+        n_classes = test_log_densities.shape[0]
+
+        # sample in unconstrained R^(n_classes-1)
+        z = numpyro.sample(
+            "z",
+            dist.Normal(0.0, 1.0).expand([n_classes - 1])
+        )
+
+        prev = self.ilr.inverse(z)  # simplex, shape (n_classes,)
+
+        # for numerical stability:
+        # eps = 1e-10
+        # prev_safe = jnp.clip(prev, eps, 1.0)
+        # prev_safe = prev_safe / jnp.sum(prev_safe)
+        # prev = prev_safe
+
+        # from jax import debug
+        # debug.print("prev = {}", prev)
+        # numpyro.factor(
+        #     "check_prev",
+        #     jnp.where(jnp.all(prev > 0), 0.0, -jnp.inf)
+        # )
+
+        # prior
+        if alpha is not None:
+            alpha = jnp.asarray(alpha)
+            numpyro.factor(
+                'log_prior', dist.Dirichlet(alpha).log_prob(prev)
+            )
+        # if alpha is None, then this corresponds to a weak logistic-normal prior
+
+        # likelihood
+        # test_densities = jnp.array(test_densities)
+        # likelihoods = jnp.dot(prev, test_densities)
+        # likelihoods = jnp.clip(likelihoods, 1e-12, jnp.inf) # numerical stability
+        # numpyro.factor(
+        #     "loglik", (1.0 / self.temperature) * jnp.sum(jnp.log(likelihoods))
+        # )
+
+        log_likelihood = jnp.sum(
+            logsumexp(jnp.log(prev)[:, None] + test_log_densities, axis=0)
+        )
+        numpyro.factor(
+            "loglik", (1.0 / self.temperature) * log_likelihood
+        )
+
+
+
+

BayesianKDEy/_bayesian_mapls.py

@@ -0,0 +1,322 @@
+import jax.numpy as jnp
+import numpy as np
+import numpyro
+import numpyro.distributions as dist
+from numpyro.infer import MCMC, NUTS, HMC
+import jax.random as random
+from sklearn.base import BaseEstimator
+from jax.scipy.special import logsumexp
+from BayesianKDEy.commons import ILRtransformation
+from quapy.method.aggregative import AggregativeSoftQuantifier
+from quapy.method.confidence import WithConfidenceABC, ConfidenceRegionABC
+import quapy.functional as F
+
+
+class BayesianMAPLS(AggregativeSoftQuantifier, WithConfidenceABC):
+    """
+
+    :param classifier:
+    :param fit_classifier:
+    :param val_split:
+    :param exact_train_prev: set to True (default) for using the true training prevalence as the initial
+        observation; set to False for computing the training prevalence as an estimate of it, i.e., as the
+        expected value of the posterior probabilities of the training instances.
+    :param num_samples:
+    :param mcmc_seed:
+    :param confidence_level:
+    :param region:
+    """
+
+    def __init__(self,
+                 classifier: BaseEstimator = None,
+                 fit_classifier=True,
+                 val_split: int = 5,
+                 exact_train_prev=True,
+                 num_warmup: int = 500,
+                 num_samples: int = 1_000,
+                 mcmc_seed: int = 0,
+                 confidence_level: float = 0.95,
+                 region: str = 'intervals',
+                 temperature=1.,
+                 prior='uniform',
+                 mapls_chain_init=True,
+                 verbose=False
+                 ):
+
+        if num_samples <= 0:
+            raise ValueError(f'parameter {num_samples=} must be a positive integer')
+        super().__init__(classifier, fit_classifier, val_split)
+        self.exact_train_prev = exact_train_prev
+        self.num_warmup = num_warmup
+        self.num_samples = num_samples
+        self.mcmc_seed = mcmc_seed
+        self.confidence_level = confidence_level
+        self.region = region
+        self.temperature = temperature
+        self.prior = prior
+        self.mapls_chain_init = mapls_chain_init
+        self.verbose = verbose
+
+    def aggregation_fit(self, classif_predictions, labels):
+        self.train_post = classif_predictions
+        if self.exact_train_prev:
+            self.train_prevalence = F.prevalence_from_labels(labels, classes=self.classes_)
+        else:
+            self.train_prevalence = F.prevalence_from_probabilities(classif_predictions)
+        self.ilr = ILRtransformation(jax_mode=True)
+        return self
+
+    def aggregate(self, classif_predictions: np.ndarray):
+        n_test, n_classes = classif_predictions.shape
+
+        pi_star, lam = mapls(
+            self.train_post,
+            test_probs=classif_predictions,
+            pz=self.train_prevalence,
+            return_lambda=True
+        )
+
+        # pi_star: MAP in simplex shape (n_classes,) and convert to ILR space
+        z0 = self.ilr(pi_star)
+
+        if self.prior == 'uniform':
+            alpha = [1.] * n_classes
+        elif self.prior == 'map':
+            alpha_0 = alpha0_from_lamda(lam, n_test=n_test, n_classes=n_classes)
+            alpha = [alpha_0] * n_classes
+        elif self.prior == 'map2':
+            lam2 = get_lamda(
+                test_probs=classif_predictions,
+                pz=self.train_prevalence,
+                q_prior=pi_star,
+                dvg=kl_div
+            )
+            alpha_0 = alpha0_from_lamda(lam2, n_test=n_test, n_classes=n_classes)
+            alpha = [alpha_0] * n_classes
+        else:
+            alpha = self.prior
+
+        kernel = NUTS(self.model)
+        mcmc = MCMC(
+            kernel,
+            num_warmup=self.num_warmup,
+            num_samples=self.num_samples,
+            num_chains=1,
+            progress_bar=self.verbose
+        )
+
+        mcmc.run(
+            random.PRNGKey(self.mcmc_seed),
+            test_posteriors=classif_predictions,
+            alpha=alpha,
+            init_params={"z": z0} if self.mapls_chain_init else None
+        )
+
+        samples = mcmc.get_samples()["z"]
+        self.prevalence_samples = self.ilr.inverse(samples)
+        return self.prevalence_samples.mean(axis=0)
+
+    def predict_conf(self, instances, confidence_level=None) -> (np.ndarray, ConfidenceRegionABC):
+        if confidence_level is None:
+            confidence_level = self.confidence_level
+        classif_predictions = self.classify(instances)
+        point_estimate = self.aggregate(classif_predictions)
+        samples = self.prevalence_samples  # available after calling "aggregate" function
+        region = WithConfidenceABC.construct_region(samples, confidence_level=confidence_level, method=self.region)
+        return point_estimate, region
+
+    def log_likelihood(self, test_classif, test_prev, train_prev):
+        # n_test = test_classif.shape[0]
+        log_w = jnp.log(test_prev) - jnp.log(train_prev)
+        # return (1/n_test) * jnp.sum(
+        #     logsumexp(jnp.log(test_classif) + log_w, axis=-1)
+        # )
+        return jnp.sum(
+            logsumexp(jnp.log(test_classif) + log_w, axis=-1)
+        )
+
+    def model(self, test_posteriors, alpha):
+        test_posteriors = jnp.array(test_posteriors)
+        n_classes = test_posteriors.shape[1]
+
+        # prior in ILR
+        z = numpyro.sample(
+            "z",
+            dist.Normal(jnp.zeros(n_classes-1), 1.0)
+        )
+
+        # back to simplex
+        prev = self.ilr.inverse(z)
+        train_prev = jnp.array(self.train_prevalence)
+
+        # prior
+        alpha = jnp.array(alpha)
+        numpyro.factor(
+            "dirichlet_prior",
+            dist.Dirichlet(alpha).log_prob(prev)
+        )
+
+        # Likelihood
+        numpyro.factor(
+            "likelihood",
+            (1.0 / self.temperature) * self.log_likelihood(test_posteriors, test_prev=prev, train_prev=train_prev)
+        )
+
+
+# adapted from https://github.com/ChangkunYe/MAPLS/blob/main/label_shift/mapls.py
+
+def mapls(train_probs: np.ndarray,
+          test_probs: np.ndarray,
+          pz: np.ndarray,
+          qy_mode: str = 'soft',
+          max_iter: int = 100,
+          init_mode: str = 'identical',
+          lam: float = None,
+          dvg_name='kl',
+          return_lambda=False
+          ):
+    r"""
+    Implementation of Maximum A Posteriori Label Shift,
+    for Unknown target label distribution estimation
+
+    Given source domain P(Y_s=i|X_s=x) = f(x) and P(Y_s=i),
+    estimate targe domain P(Y_t=i) on test set
+
+    """
+    # Sanity Check
+    cls_num = len(pz)
+    assert test_probs.shape[-1] == cls_num
+    if type(max_iter) != int or max_iter < 0:
+        raise Exception('max_iter should be a positive integer, not ' + str(max_iter))
+
+    # Setup d(p,q) measure
+    if dvg_name == 'kl':
+        dvg = kl_div
+    elif dvg_name == 'js':
+        dvg = js_div
+    else:
+        raise Exception('Unsupported distribution distance measure, expect kl or js.')
+
+    # Set Prior of Target Label Distribution
+    q_prior = np.ones(cls_num) / cls_num
+    # q_prior = pz.copy()
+
+    # Lambda estimation-------------------------------------------------------#
+    if lam is None:
+        # logging.info('Data shape: %s, %s' % (str(train_probs.shape), str(test_probs.shape)))
+        # logging.info('Divergence type is %s' % (dvg))
+        lam = get_lamda(test_probs, pz, q_prior, dvg=dvg, max_iter=max_iter)
+        # logging.info('Estimated lambda value is %.4f' % lam)
+    # else:
+    #     logging.info('Assigned lambda is %.4f' % lam)
+
+    # EM Algorithm Computation
+    qz = mapls_EM(test_probs, pz, lam, q_prior, cls_num,
+                  init_mode=init_mode, max_iter=max_iter, qy_mode=qy_mode)
+
+    if return_lambda:
+        return qz, lam
+    else:
+        return qz
+
+
+def mapls_EM(probs, pz, lam, q_prior, cls_num, init_mode='identical', max_iter=100, qy_mode='soft'):
+    # Normalize Source Label Distribution pz
+    pz = np.array(pz) / np.sum(pz)
+    # Initialize Target Label Distribution qz
+    if init_mode == 'uniform':
+        qz = np.ones(cls_num) / cls_num
+    elif init_mode == 'identical':
+        qz = pz.copy()
+    else:
+        raise ValueError('init_mode should be either "uniform" or "identical"')
+
+    # Initialize w
+    w = (np.array(qz) / np.array(pz))
+    # EM algorithm with MAP estimation----------------------------------------#
+    for i in range(max_iter):
+        # print('w shape ', w.shape)
+
+        # E-Step--------------------------------------------------------------#
+        mapls_probs = normalized(probs * w, axis=-1, order=1)
+
+        # M-Step--------------------------------------------------------------#
+        if qy_mode == 'hard':
+            pred = np.argmax(mapls_probs, axis=-1)
+            qz_new = np.bincount(pred.reshape(-1), minlength=cls_num)
+        elif qy_mode == 'soft':
+            qz_new = np.mean(mapls_probs, axis=0)
+        # elif qy_mode == 'topk':
+        #     qz_new = Topk_qy(mapls_probs, cls_num, topk_ratio=0.9, head=0)
+        else:
+            raise Exception('mapls mode should be either "soft" or "hard". ')
+        # print(np.shape(pc_probs), np.shape(pred), np.shape(cls_num_list_t))
+
+        # Update w with MAP estimation of Target Label Distribution qz
+        # qz = (qz_new + alpha) / (N + np.sum(alpha))
+        qz = lam * qz_new + (1 - lam) * q_prior
+        qz /= qz.sum()
+        w = qz / pz
+
+    return qz
+
+
+def get_lamda(test_probs, pz, q_prior, dvg, max_iter=50):
+    K = len(pz)
+
+    # MLLS estimation of source and target domain label distribution
+    qz_pred = mapls_EM(test_probs, pz, 1, 0, K, max_iter=max_iter)
+
+    TU_div = dvg(qz_pred, q_prior)
+    TS_div = dvg(qz_pred, pz)
+    SU_div = dvg(pz, q_prior)
+    # logging.info('weights are, TU_div %.4f, TS_div %.4f, SU_div %.4f' % (TU_div, TS_div, SU_div))
+
+    SU_conf = 1 - lam_forward(SU_div, lam_inv(dpq=0.5, lam=0.2))
+    TU_conf = lam_forward(TU_div, lam_inv(dpq=0.5, lam=SU_conf))
+    TS_conf = lam_forward(TS_div, lam_inv(dpq=0.5, lam=SU_conf))
+    # logging.info('weights are, unviform_weight %.4f, differ_weight %.4f, regularize weight %.4f'
+    #              % (TU_conf, TS_conf, SU_conf))
+
+    confs = np.array([TU_conf, 1 - TS_conf])
+    w = np.array([0.9, 0.1])
+    lam = np.sum(w * confs)
+
+    # logging.info('Estimated lambda is: %.4f', lam)
+
+    return lam
+
+
+def lam_inv(dpq, lam):
+    return (1 / (1 - lam) - 1) / dpq
+
+
+def lam_forward(dpq, gamma):
+    return gamma * dpq / (1 + gamma * dpq)
+
+
+def kl_div(p, q, eps=1e-12):
+    p = np.asarray(p, dtype=float)
+    q = np.asarray(q, dtype=float)
+
+    mask = p > 0
+    return np.sum(p[mask] * np.log(p[mask] / (q[mask] + eps)))
+
+
+def js_div(p, q):
+    assert (np.abs(np.sum(p) - 1) < 1e-6) and (np.abs(np.sum(q) - 1) < 1e-6)
+    m = (p + q) / 2
+    return kl_div(p, m) / 2 + kl_div(q, m) / 2
+
+
+def normalized(a, axis=-1, order=2):
+    r"""
+    Prediction Normalization
+    """
+    l2 = np.atleast_1d(np.linalg.norm(a, order, axis))
+    l2[l2 == 0] = 1
+    return a / np.expand_dims(l2, axis)
+
+
+def alpha0_from_lamda(lam, n_test, n_classes):
+    return 1+n_test*(1-lam)/(lam*n_classes)

BayesianKDEy/bandwidth_and_dimensionality.py

@@ -0,0 +1,78 @@
+from sklearn.neighbors import KernelDensity
+import quapy.functional as F
+import numpy as np
+
+import numpy as np
+import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
+from sklearn.neighbors import KernelDensity
+import quapy.functional as F
+
+# aitchison=True
+aitchison=False
+clr = F.CLRtransformation()
+
+# h = 0.1
+# dims = list(range(5, 100, 5))
+dims = [10, 28, 100]
+
+center_densities = []
+vertex_densities = []
+
+center_densities_scaled = []
+vertex_densities_scaled = []
+
+
+for n in dims:
+    h0 = 0.4
+    simplex_center = F.uniform_prevalence(n)
+    simplex_vertex = np.asarray([.9] + [.1/ (n - 1)] * (n - 1), dtype=float)
+
+    # KDE trained on a single point (the center)
+    kde = KernelDensity(bandwidth=h0)
+    X = simplex_center[None, :]
+    if aitchison:
+        X = clr(X)
+    kde.fit(X)
+
+    X = np.vstack([simplex_center, simplex_vertex])
+    if aitchison:
+        X = clr(X)
+    density = np.exp(kde.score_samples(X))
+
+    center_densities.append(density[0])
+    vertex_densities.append(density[1])
+
+    h1= h0 * np.sqrt(n / 2)
+    # KDE trained on a single point (the center)
+    kde = KernelDensity(bandwidth=h1)
+    X = simplex_center[None, :]
+    if aitchison:
+        X = clr(X)
+    kde.fit(X)
+
+    X = np.vstack([simplex_center, simplex_vertex])
+    if aitchison:
+        X = clr(X)
+    density = np.exp(kde.score_samples(X))
+
+    center_densities_scaled.append(density[0])
+    vertex_densities_scaled.append(density[1])
+
+# Plot
+plt.figure(figsize=(6*4, 4*4))
+plt.plot(dims, center_densities, marker='o', label='Center of simplex')
+plt.plot(dims, vertex_densities, marker='s', label='Vertex of simplex')
+plt.plot(dims, center_densities_scaled, marker='o', label='Center of simplex (scaled)')
+plt.plot(dims, vertex_densities_scaled, marker='s', label='Vertex of simplex (scaled)')
+
+plt.xlabel('Number of classes (simplex dimension)')
+# plt.ylim(min(center_densities+vertex_densities), max(center_densities+vertex_densities))
+plt.ylabel('Kernel density')
+plt.yscale('log')  # crucial to see anything meaningful
+plt.title(f'KDE density vs dimension (bandwidth = {h0}) in {"Simplex" if not aitchison else "ILR-space"}')
+plt.legend()
+plt.grid(alpha=0.3)
+
+plt.tight_layout()
+plt.show()
+

BayesianKDEy/commons.py

@@ -0,0 +1,195 @@
+import os
+from functools import lru_cache
+from pathlib import Path
+
+from jax import numpy as jnp
+from sklearn.base import BaseEstimator
+from sklearn.decomposition import PCA
+
+import quapy.functional as F
+
+import quapy as qp
+import numpy as np
+
+from quapy.method.aggregative import KDEyML
+from quapy.functional import ILRtransformation
+from scipy.stats import entropy
+
+RESULT_DIR = Path('results')
+
+
+# utils
+def experiment_path(dir:Path, dataset_name:str, method_name:str):
+    os.makedirs(dir, exist_ok=True)
+    return dir/f'{dataset_name}__{method_name}.pkl'
+
+
+def normalized_entropy(p):
+    """
+    Normalized Shannon entropy in [0, 1]
+    p: array-like, prevalence vector (sums to 1)
+    """
+    p = np.asarray(p)
+    H = entropy(p) # Shannon entropy
+    H_max = np.log(len(p))
+    return np.clip(H / H_max, 0, 1)
+
+
+def antagonistic_prevalence(p, strength=1):
+    ilr = ILRtransformation()
+    z = ilr(p)
+    z_ant = - strength * z
+    p_ant = ilr.inverse(z_ant)
+    return p_ant
+
+
+"""
+class KDEyScaledB(KDEyML):
+    def __init__(self, classifier: BaseEstimator=None, fit_classifier=True, val_split=5, bandwidth=1., random_state=None):
+        super().__init__(
+            classifier=classifier, fit_classifier=fit_classifier, val_split=val_split, bandwidth=bandwidth,
+            random_state=random_state, kernel='gaussian'
+        )
+    
+    def aggregation_fit(self, classif_predictions, labels):
+        if not hasattr(self, '_changed'):
+            def scale_bandwidth(n_classes, beta=0.5):            
+                return self.bandwidth * np.power(n_classes, beta)
+            n_classes = len(set(y))
+            scaled = scale_bandwidth(n_classes)
+            print(f'bandwidth scaling: {self.bandwidth:.4f} => {scaled:.4f}')
+            self.bandwidth = scaled     
+            self._changed = True   
+        return super().aggregation_fit(classif_predictions, labels)
+"""
+class KDEyScaledB(KDEyML):
+    def __init__(self, classifier: BaseEstimator=None, fit_classifier=True, val_split=5, bandwidth=1., random_state=None):
+        super().__init__(
+            classifier=classifier, fit_classifier=fit_classifier, val_split=val_split, bandwidth=bandwidth,
+            random_state=random_state, kernel='gaussian'
+        )
+
+class KDEyFresh(KDEyML):
+    def __init__(self, classifier: BaseEstimator=None, fit_classifier=True, val_split=5, bandwidth=1., random_state=None):
+        super().__init__(
+            classifier=classifier, fit_classifier=fit_classifier, val_split=val_split, bandwidth=bandwidth,
+            random_state=random_state, kernel='gaussian'
+        )
+
+class KDEyReduce(KDEyML):
+    def __init__(self, classifier: BaseEstimator=None, fit_classifier=True, val_split=5, bandwidth=1., n_components=10, random_state=None):
+        super().__init__(
+            classifier=classifier, fit_classifier=fit_classifier, val_split=val_split, bandwidth=bandwidth,
+            random_state=random_state, kernel='gaussian'
+        )
+        self.n_components=n_components
+
+    def aggregation_fit(self, classif_predictions, labels):
+        self.pca = PCA(n_components=self.n_components)
+        classif_predictions = self.pca.fit_transform(classif_predictions)
+        return super().aggregation_fit(classif_predictions, labels)
+
+    def aggregate(self, posteriors: np.ndarray):
+        posteriors = self.pca.transform(posteriors)
+        return super().aggregate(posteriors)
+    
+
+class KDEyCLR(KDEyML):
+    def __init__(self, classifier: BaseEstimator=None, fit_classifier=True, val_split=5, bandwidth=1., random_state=None):
+        super().__init__(
+            classifier=classifier, fit_classifier=fit_classifier, val_split=val_split, bandwidth=bandwidth,
+            random_state=random_state, kernel='aitchison'
+        )
+
+class KDEyCLR2(KDEyML):
+    def __init__(self, classifier: BaseEstimator=None, fit_classifier=True, val_split=5, bandwidth=1., random_state=None):
+        super().__init__(
+            classifier=classifier, fit_classifier=fit_classifier, val_split=val_split, bandwidth=bandwidth,
+            random_state=random_state, kernel='aitchison'
+        )
+
+
+class KDEyILR(KDEyML):
+    def __init__(self, classifier: BaseEstimator=None, fit_classifier=True, val_split=5, bandwidth=1., random_state=None):
+        super().__init__(
+            classifier=classifier, fit_classifier=fit_classifier, val_split=val_split, bandwidth=bandwidth,
+            random_state=random_state, kernel='ilr'
+        )
+
+
+class ILRtransformation(F.CompositionalTransformation):
+    def __init__(self, jax_mode=False):
+        self.jax_mode = jax_mode
+
+    def array(self, X):
+        if self.jax_mode:
+            return jnp.array(X)
+        else:
+            return np.asarray(X)
+
+    def __call__(self, X):
+        X = self.array(X)
+        X = qp.error.smooth(X, self.EPSILON)
+        k = X.shape[-1]
+        V = self.array(self.get_V(k))
+        logp = jnp.log(X) if self.jax_mode else np.log(X)
+        return logp @ V.T
+
+    def inverse(self, Z):
+        Z = self.array(Z)
+        k_minus_1 = Z.shape[-1]
+        k = k_minus_1 + 1
+        V = self.array(self.get_V(k))
+        logp = Z @ V
+        p = jnp.exp(logp) if self.jax_mode else np.exp(logp)
+        p = p / jnp.sum(p, axis=-1, keepdims=True) if self.jax_mode else p / np.sum(p, axis=-1, keepdims=True)
+        return p
+
+    @lru_cache(maxsize=None)
+    def get_V(self, k):
+        def helmert_matrix(k):
+            """
+            Returns the (k x k) Helmert matrix.
+            """
+            H = np.zeros((k, k))
+            for i in range(1, k):
+                H[i, :i] = 1
+                H[i, i] = -(i)
+                H[i] = H[i] / np.sqrt(i * (i + 1))
+            # row 0 stays zeros; will be discarded
+            return H
+
+        def ilr_basis(k):
+            """
+            Constructs an orthonormal ILR basis using the Helmert submatrix.
+            Output shape: (k-1, k)
+            """
+            H = helmert_matrix(k)
+            V = H[1:, :]  # remove first row of zeros
+            return V
+
+        return ilr_basis(k)
+
+
+def in_simplex(x, atol=1e-8):
+    x = np.asarray(x)
+
+    non_negative = np.all(x >= 0, axis=-1)
+    sum_to_one = np.isclose(x.sum(axis=-1), 1.0, atol=atol)
+
+    return non_negative & sum_to_one
+
+
+class MockClassifierFromPosteriors(BaseEstimator):
+    def __init__(self):
+        pass
+
+    def fit(self, X, y):
+        self.classes_ = sorted(np.unique(y))
+        return self
+
+    def predict(self, X):
+        return np.argmax(X, axis=1)
+
+    def predict_proba(self, X):
+        return X

BayesianKDEy/data/mnist_basiccnn/info_mnist_basiccnn.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+Dataset: mnist
+Model: basiccnn
+Number of classes: 10
+Train samples: 42000
+Validation samples: 18000
+Test samples: 10000
+Validation accuracy: 0.9895
+Test accuracy: 0.9901
+Github repository: ....
+
+Data Loading Instructions:
+The extracted features, predictions, targets, and logits are saved in .npz files.
+To load the data in Python:
+
+import numpy as np
+
+# Load training data
+train_data = np.load('mnist_basiccnn_train_out.npz')
+train_features = train_data['features']
+train_predictions = train_data['predictions']
+train_targets = train_data['targets']
+train_logits = train_data['logits']
+
+# Load validation data
+val_data = np.load('mnist_basiccnn_val_out.npz')
+val_features = val_data['features']
+val_predictions = val_data['predictions']
+val_targets = val_data['targets']
+val_logits = val_data['logits']
+
+# Load test data
+test_data = np.load('mnist_basiccnn_test_out.npz')
+test_features = test_data['features']
+test_predictions = test_data['predictions']
+test_targets = test_data['targets']
+test_logits = test_data['logits']
+
+Note: features are the output of the feature extractor (before the final classification layer),
+predictions are softmax probabilities, targets are the true labels, and logits are the raw model outputs.

BayesianKDEy/datasets.py

@@ -0,0 +1,345 @@
+import inspect
+from abc import ABC, abstractmethod
+from functools import lru_cache
+
+import numpy as np
+from pathlib import Path
+import quapy as qp
+
+from commons import MockClassifierFromPosteriors
+from quapy.protocol import UPP
+from quapy.data import LabelledCollection
+from quapy.method.aggregative import EMQ
+
+
+
+def fetchVisual(modality, dataset, net, data_home='./data'):    
+    MODALITY = ('features', 'predictions', 'logits')
+    assert modality in MODALITY, f'unknown modality, valid ones are {MODALITY}'
+
+    file_prefix = f'{dataset}_{net}'
+    data_home = Path(data_home) / file_prefix    
+
+    # Load training data
+    train_data = np.load(data_home/f'{file_prefix}_train_out.npz')
+    train_X = train_data[modality]
+    train_y = train_data['targets']
+
+    # Load validation data
+    val_data = np.load(data_home/f'{file_prefix}_val_out.npz')
+    val_X = val_data[modality]
+    val_y = val_data['targets']
+
+    # Load test data
+    test_data = np.load(data_home/f'{file_prefix}_test_out.npz')
+    test_X = test_data[modality]
+    test_y = test_data['targets']
+
+    train = LabelledCollection(train_X, train_y)
+    val = LabelledCollection(val_X, val_y, classes=train.classes_)
+    test = LabelledCollection(test_X, test_y, classes=train.classes_)
+
+    def show_prev_stats(data:LabelledCollection):
+        p = data.prevalence()
+        return f'prevs in [{min(p)*100:.3f}%, {max(p)*100:.3f}%]'
+    print(f'loaded {dataset} ({modality=}): '
+          f'#train={len(train)}({show_prev_stats(train)}), '
+          f'#val={len(val)}({show_prev_stats(val)}), '
+          f'#test={len(test)}({show_prev_stats(test)}), '
+          f'#features={train_X.shape[1]}, '
+          f'#classes={len(set(train_y))}')
+
+    return train, val, test
+
+
+def fetchMNIST(modality, data_home='./data'):
+    return fetchVisual(modality, dataset='mnist', net='basiccnn', data_home=data_home)
+
+def fetchCIFAR100coarse(modality, data_home='./data'):
+    return fetchVisual(modality, dataset='cifar100coarse', net='resnet18', data_home=data_home)
+
+def fetchCIFAR100(modality, data_home='./data'):
+    return fetchVisual(modality, dataset='cifar100', net='resnet18', data_home=data_home)
+
+def fetchCIFAR10(modality, data_home='./data'):
+    return fetchVisual(modality, dataset='cifar10', net='resnet18', data_home=data_home)
+
+def fetchFashionMNIST(modality, data_home='./data'):
+    return fetchVisual(modality, dataset='fashionmnist', net='basiccnn', data_home=data_home)
+                       
+def fetchSVHN(modality, data_home='./data'):
+    return fetchVisual(modality, dataset='svhn', net='resnet18', data_home=data_home)
+
+
+
+class DatasetHandler(ABC):
+
+    def __init__(self, name):
+        self.name = name
+
+    @classmethod
+    def get_defaults(cls):
+        sig = inspect.signature(cls.__init__)
+
+        defaults = {
+            name: param.default
+            for name, param in sig.parameters.items()
+            if param.default is not inspect.Parameter.empty
+        }
+
+        return defaults
+
+    @abstractmethod
+    def get_training(self): ...
+
+    @abstractmethod
+    def get_train_testprot_for_eval(self): ...
+
+    @abstractmethod
+    def get_train_valprot_for_modsel(self): ...
+
+    @classmethod
+    @abstractmethod
+    def get_datasets(cls): ...
+
+    @classmethod
+    def iter(cls, **kwargs):
+        for name in cls.get_datasets():
+            yield cls(name, **kwargs)
+
+    def __repr__(self):
+        return f'{self.__class__.__name__}({self.name})'
+
+    @classmethod
+    @abstractmethod
+    def is_binary(self):  ...
+
+
+class VisualDataHandler(DatasetHandler):
+
+    def __init__(self, name, n_val_samples=100, n_test_samples=100, sample_size=500, random_state=0):
+        # mode features : feature-based, the idea is to learn a LogisticRegression on top
+        # mode predictions : posterior probabilities
+        # assert modality in ['features', 'predictions'], f'unknown {modality=}'
+        super().__init__(name=name)
+        modality = 'predictions'
+        if name.endswith('-f'):
+            modality = 'features'
+        elif name.endswith('-l'):
+            modality = 'logits'
+        self.modality = modality
+        self.n_val_samples = n_val_samples
+        self.n_test_samples = n_test_samples
+        self.sample_size = sample_size
+        self.random_state = random_state
+
+    @lru_cache(maxsize=None)
+    def dataset(self):
+        name = self.name.lower()
+        name = name.replace('-f', '')
+        name = name.replace('-l', '')
+
+        if name=='mnist':
+            data = fetchMNIST(modality=self.modality)
+        elif name=='cifar100coarse':
+            data = fetchCIFAR100coarse(modality=self.modality)
+        elif name=='cifar100':
+            data = fetchCIFAR100(modality=self.modality)
+        elif name=='cifar10':
+            data = fetchCIFAR10(modality=self.modality)
+        elif name=='fashionmnist':
+            data = fetchFashionMNIST(modality=self.modality)
+        elif name=='svhn':
+            data = fetchSVHN(modality=self.modality)
+        else:
+            raise ValueError(f'unknown dataset {name}')
+
+        # the training set was used to extract features;
+        # we use the validation portion as a training set for quantifiers
+        net_train, val, test = data
+        train, val = val.split_stratified(train_prop=0.6, random_state=self.random_state)
+        return train, val, test
+
+    def get_training(self):
+        train, val, test = self.dataset()
+        return train
+
+    def get_validation(self):
+        train, val, test = self.dataset()
+        return val
+
+    def get_train_testprot_for_eval(self):
+        train, val, test = self.dataset()
+        test_prot = UPP(test, sample_size=self.sample_size, repeats=self.n_test_samples, random_state=self.random_state)
+        return train+val, test_prot
+
+    def get_train_valprot_for_modsel(self):
+        train, val, test = self.dataset()
+        val_prot = UPP(val, sample_size=self.sample_size, repeats=self.n_val_samples, random_state=self.random_state)
+        return train, val_prot
+
+    @classmethod
+    def get_datasets(cls):
+        datasets = ['cifar100coarse', 'cifar10', 'mnist', 'fashionmnist', 'svhn'] #+ ['cifar100']
+        # datasets_feat = [f'{d}-f' for d in datasets]
+        datasets_feat = [f'{d}-l' for d in datasets]
+        return datasets_feat # + datasets
+        
+
+    @classmethod
+    def iter(cls, **kwargs):
+        for name in cls.get_datasets():
+            yield cls(name, **kwargs)
+
+    def __repr__(self):
+        return f'{self.name}'
+
+    @classmethod
+    def is_binary(self):
+        return False
+
+
+class CIFAR100Handler(VisualDataHandler):
+    def __init__(self, name, n_val_samples=100, n_test_samples=100, sample_size=2000, random_state=0):
+        super().__init__(name=name, n_val_samples=n_val_samples, n_test_samples=n_test_samples, sample_size=sample_size, random_state=random_state)
+
+    @classmethod
+    def get_datasets(cls):
+        datasets = ['cifar100']
+        # datasets_feat = [f'{d}-f' for d in datasets]
+        datasets_feat = [f'{d}-l' for d in datasets]
+        return datasets_feat # + datasets
+
+
+# LeQua multiclass tasks
+class LeQuaHandler(DatasetHandler):
+
+    DATASETS = ['LeQua2022', 'LeQua2024']
+
+    def __init__(self, name):
+        super().__init__(name)
+        self.sample_size = 1000
+
+    def get_training(self):
+        return self.dataset()[0]
+
+    def get_train_testprot_for_eval(self):
+        training, _, test_generator = self.dataset()
+        return training, test_generator
+
+    def get_train_valprot_for_modsel(self):
+        training, val_generator, _ = self.dataset()
+        return training, val_generator
+
+    @lru_cache(maxsize=None)
+    def dataset(self):
+        if self.name=='LeQua2022':
+            return qp.datasets.fetch_lequa2022(task='T1B')
+        elif self.name=='LeQua2024':
+            return qp.datasets.fetch_lequa2024(task='T2')
+        else:
+            raise ValueError(f'unexpected dataset name {self.name}; valid ones are {self.DATASETS}')
+
+    def __repr__(self):
+        return self.name
+
+    @classmethod
+    def iter(cls):
+        for name in cls.DATASETS:
+            yield cls(name)
+
+    @classmethod
+    def is_binary(self):
+        return False
+
+    @classmethod
+    def get_datasets(cls):
+        return cls.DATASETS
+
+
+class UCIDatasetHandler(DatasetHandler, ABC):
+    DATASETS = []
+
+    def __init__(self, name, n_val_samples, n_test_samples, sample_size, random_state):
+        super().__init__(name=name)
+        self.sample_size = sample_size
+        self.n_val_samples = n_val_samples
+        self.n_test_samples = n_test_samples
+        self.random_state = random_state
+
+    def get_training(self):
+        return self.dataset().training
+
+    def get_train_testprot_for_eval(self):
+        training, test = self.dataset().train_test
+        test_generator = qp.protocol.UPP(test, sample_size=self.sample_size, repeats=self.n_test_samples,
+                                         random_state=self.random_state)
+        return training, test_generator
+
+    def get_train_valprot_for_modsel(self):
+        training = self.dataset().training
+        training, val = training.split_stratified(train_prop=0.6, random_state=self.random_state)
+        val_generator = qp.protocol.UPP(val, sample_size=self.sample_size, repeats=self.n_val_samples,
+                                        random_state=self.random_state)
+        return training, val_generator
+
+    @classmethod
+    def get_datasets(cls):
+        return cls.DATASETS
+
+    @classmethod
+    def iter(cls):
+        for name in cls.DATASETS:
+            yield cls(name)
+
+
+class UCIMulticlassHandler(UCIDatasetHandler):
+
+    DATASETS = sorted([d for d in qp.datasets.UCI_MULTICLASS_DATASETS if d not in frozenset(['hcv', 'poker_hand'])])
+
+    def __init__(self, name, n_val_samples=100, n_test_samples=100, sample_size=1000, random_state=0):
+        super().__init__(name, n_val_samples, n_test_samples, sample_size, random_state)
+
+    @lru_cache(maxsize=None)
+    def dataset(self):
+        return qp.datasets.fetch_UCIMulticlassDataset(self.name, min_class_support=0.01)
+
+    def __repr__(self):
+        return f'{self.name}(UCI-multiclass)'
+
+    @classmethod
+    def is_binary(self):
+        return False
+
+
+class UCIBinaryHandler(DatasetHandler):
+
+    DATASETS = qp.datasets.UCI_BINARY_DATASETS.copy()
+
+    def __init__(self, name, n_val_samples=100, n_test_samples=100, sample_size=500, random_state=0):
+        super().__init__(name, n_val_samples, n_test_samples, sample_size, random_state)
+
+    @lru_cache(maxsize=None)
+    def dataset(self):
+        return qp.datasets.fetch_UCIBinaryDataset(self.name)
+
+    def __repr__(self):
+        return f'{self.name}(UCI-binary)'
+
+
+    @classmethod
+    def is_binary(self):
+        return True
+
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+    train, val, test = fetchMNIST(modality='predictions')
+    cls = MockClassifierFromPosteriors()
+    cls.fit(*train.Xy)
+    # q = KDEyML(classifier=cls, fit_classifier=False)
+    # q = PACC(classifier=cls, fit_classifier=False)
+    q = EMQ(classifier=cls, fit_classifier=False)
+    q.fit(*val.Xy)
+    test_prot = UPP(test, repeats=100, sample_size=500)
+    report = qp.evaluation.evaluation_report(q, test_prot, verbose=True)
+    print(report.mean(numeric_only=True))

BayesianKDEy/error_expected.py

@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+import quapy as qp
+
+from quapy.error import mae
+import quapy.functional as F
+
+for n in range(2,100,5):
+    a = F.uniform_prevalence_sampling(n_classes=n, size=10_000)
+    b = F.uniform_prevalence_sampling(n_classes=n, size=10_000)
+    print(f'{n=} ae={mae(a, b):.5f}')

BayesianKDEy/full_experiments.py

@@ -0,0 +1,230 @@
+from pathlib import Path
+
+from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression
+from copy import deepcopy as cp
+import quapy as qp
+from BayesianKDEy.commons import KDEyReduce
+from BayesianKDEy.methods import get_experimental_methods, MethodDescriptor
+from _bayeisan_kdey import BayesianKDEy
+from _bayesian_mapls import BayesianMAPLS
+from commons import experiment_path, KDEyCLR, RESULT_DIR, MockClassifierFromPosteriors, KDEyScaledB, KDEyFresh
+# import datasets
+from datasets import LeQuaHandler, UCIMulticlassHandler, DatasetHandler, VisualDataHandler, CIFAR100Handler
+from temperature_calibration import temp_calibration
+from build.lib.quapy.data import LabelledCollection
+from quapy.method.aggregative import DistributionMatchingY as DMy, AggregativeQuantifier, EMQ, CC
+from quapy.model_selection import GridSearchQ
+from quapy.data import Dataset
+from quapy.method.confidence import BayesianCC, AggregativeBootstrap
+from quapy.method.aggregative import KDEyML, ACC
+from quapy.protocol import UPP
+import numpy as np
+from tqdm import tqdm
+from collections import defaultdict
+from time import time
+
+
+
+def methods___depr():
+    """
+    Returns a tuple (name, quantifier, hyperparams, bayesian/bootstrap_constructor), where:
+    - name: is a str representing the name of the method (e.g., 'BayesianKDEy')
+    - quantifier: is the base model (e.g., KDEyML())
+    - hyperparams: is a dictionary for the quantifier (e.g., {'bandwidth': [0.001, 0.005, 0.01, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2]})
+    - bayesian/bootstrap_constructor: is a function that instantiates the bayesian o bootstrap method with the
+        quantifier with optimized hyperparameters
+    """
+
+    Cls = LogisticRegression
+    cls_hyper = {'classifier__C': np.logspace(-4,4,9), 'classifier__class_weight': ['balanced', None]}
+    val_split = 5  # k-fold cross-validation
+    cc_hyper = cls_hyper
+    acc_hyper = cls_hyper
+    # emq_hyper = {'calib': ['nbvs', 'bcts', 'ts', 'vs'], **cls_hyper}
+    hdy_hyper = {'nbins': [3,4,5,8,16,32], **cls_hyper}
+    kdey_hyper = {'bandwidth': np.logspace(-3, -1, 10), **cls_hyper}
+    kdey_hyper_clr = {'bandwidth': np.logspace(-2, 2, 10), **cls_hyper}
+    band ={'bandwidth':np.logspace(-3,-1,10)}
+    multiclass_method = 'multiclass'
+    only_binary = 'only_binary'
+    only_multiclass = 'only_multiclass'
+
+    # surrogate quantifiers
+    cc = CC(Cls())
+    acc = ACC(Cls(), val_split=val_split)
+    hdy = DMy(Cls(), val_split=val_split)
+    kde_gau = KDEyML(Cls(), val_split=val_split)
+    kde_gau_scale = KDEyScaledB(Cls(), val_split=val_split)
+    kde_gau_pca = KDEyReduce(Cls(), val_split=val_split, n_components=5)
+    kde_gau_pca10 = KDEyReduce(Cls(), val_split=val_split, n_components=10)
+    kde_ait = KDEyCLR(Cls(), val_split=val_split)
+    emq = EMQ(Cls(), exact_train_prev=False, val_split=val_split)
+
+
+    # Bootstrap approaches:
+    # --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+    # yield 'BootstrapCC', cc, cc_hyper, lambda hyper: AggregativeBootstrap(CC(Cls()), n_test_samples=1000, random_state=0), multiclass_method
+    #yield 'BootstrapACC', acc, acc_hyper, lambda hyper: _AggregativeBootstrap(ACC(Cls()), n_test_samples=1000, random_state=0), multiclass_method
+    #yield 'BootstrapEMQ', emq, on_calib_error='backup', val_split=5), emq_hyper, lambda hyper: _AggregativeBootstrap(EMQ(Cls(), on_calib_error='backup', calib=hyper['calib'], val_split=5), n_test_samples=1000, random_state=0), multiclass_method
+    #yield 'BootstrapHDy', hdy, hdy_hyper, lambda hyper: _AggregativeBootstrap(DMy(Cls(), **hyper), n_test_samples=1000, random_state=0), multiclass_method
+    #yield 'BootstrapKDEy', kde_gau, kdey_hyper, lambda hyper: _AggregativeBootstrap(KDEyML(Cls(), **hyper), n_test_samples=1000, random_state=0, verbose=True), multiclass_method
+
+    # Bayesian approaches: (*=temp calibration auto threshold and coverage sim to nominal; +=temp calibration w/o amplitude coverage, for winkler criterion, !=same but alpha=0.005 for winkler)
+    # --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+    # yield 'BayesianACC', acc, acc_hyper, lambda hyper: BayesianCC(Cls(), val_split=val_split, mcmc_seed=0), multiclass_method
+    # yield 'BayesianACC*', acc, acc_hyper, lambda hyper: BayesianCC(Cls(), val_split=val_split, temperature=None, mcmc_seed=0), multiclass_method
+    # yield 'BayesianACC+', acc, acc_hyper, lambda hyper: BayesianCC(Cls(), val_split=val_split, temperature=None, mcmc_seed=0), multiclass_method
+    # yield 'BayesianACC!', acc, acc_hyper, lambda hyper: BayesianCC(Cls(), val_split=val_split, temperature=None, mcmc_seed=0), multiclass_method
+    #yield 'BayesianHDy', hdy, hdy_hyper, lambda hyper: PQ(Cls(), val_split=val_split, stan_seed=0, **hyper), only_binary
+    # yield f'BaKDE-Ait-numpyro', kde_ait, kdey_hyper_clr, lambda hyper: BayesianKDEy(Cls(), kernel='aitchison', mcmc_seed=0, engine='numpyro', val_split=val_split,  **hyper), multiclass_method
+    #yield f'BaKDE-Gau-numpyro', kde_gau, kdey_hyper, lambda hyper: BayesianKDEy(Cls(), kernel='gaussian', mcmc_seed=0, engine='numpyro', val_split=val_split,  **hyper), multiclass_method
+    #yield f'BaKDE-Gau-scale', kde_gau_scale, kdey_hyper, lambda hyper: BayesianKDEy(Cls(), kernel='gaussian', mcmc_seed=0, engine='numpyro', val_split=val_split,  **hyper), multiclass_method
+    #yield f'BaKDE-Gau-pca5', kde_gau_pca, band, lambda hyper: BayesianKDEy(Cls(), reduce=5, kernel='gaussian', mcmc_seed=0, engine='numpyro', val_split=val_split,  **hyper), multiclass_method
+    #yield f'BaKDE-Gau-pca5*', kde_gau_pca, band, lambda hyper: BayesianKDEy(Cls(), reduce=5, temperature=None, kernel='gaussian', mcmc_seed=0, engine='numpyro', val_split=val_split,  **hyper), multiclass_method
+    #yield f'BaKDE-Gau-pca10', kde_gau_pca10, band, lambda hyper: BayesianKDEy(Cls(), reduce=10, kernel='gaussian', mcmc_seed=0, engine='numpyro', val_split=val_split,  **hyper), multiclass_method
+    #yield f'BaKDE-Gau-pca10*', kde_gau_pca10, band, lambda hyper: BayesianKDEy(Cls(), reduce=10, temperature=None, kernel='gaussian', mcmc_seed=0, engine='numpyro', val_split=val_split,  **hyper), multiclass_method
+    # yield f'BaKDE-Gau-H0', KDEyFresh(Cls(), bandwidth=0.4), cls_hyper, lambda hyper: BayesianKDEy(Cls(), bandwidth=0.4, kernel='gaussian', mcmc_seed=0, engine='numpyro', **hyper), multiclass_method
+    # yield f'BaKDE-Gau-H1', KDEyFresh(Cls(), bandwidth=1.), cls_hyper, lambda hyper: BayesianKDEy(Cls(), bandwidth=1., kernel='gaussian', mcmc_seed=0, engine='numpyro', **hyper), multiclass_method
+    # yield f'BaKDE-Gau-H2', KDEyFresh(Cls(), bandwidth=1.5), cls_hyper, lambda hyper: BayesianKDEy(Cls(), bandwidth=1.5,
+    #                                                                                          kernel='gaussian',
+    #                                                                                          mcmc_seed=0,
+    #                                                                                          engine='numpyro',
+    #                                                                                          **hyper), multiclass_method
+    # yield f'BaKDE-Ait-T*', kde_ait, kdey_hyper_clr, lambda hyper: BayesianKDEy(Cls(),kernel='aitchison', mcmc_seed=0, engine='numpyro', temperature=None, val_split=val_split, **hyper), multiclass_method
+    # yield f'BaKDE-Ait-T!', kde_ait, kdey_hyper_clr, lambda hyper: BayesianKDEy(Cls(),kernel='aitchison', mcmc_seed=0, engine='numpyro', temperature=None, val_split=val_split, **hyper), multiclass_method
+    #yield f'BaKDE-Gau-T*', kde_gau, kdey_hyper, lambda hyper: BayesianKDEy(Cls(), kernel='gaussian', mcmc_seed=0, engine='numpyro', temperature=None, val_split=val_split, **hyper), multiclass_method
+    #yield f'BaKDE-Gau-T!', kde_gau, kdey_hyper, lambda hyper: BayesianKDEy(Cls(), kernel='gaussian', mcmc_seed=0, engine='numpyro', temperature=None, val_split=val_split, **hyper), multiclass_method
+    # yield 'BayEMQ', emq, acc_hyper, lambda hyper: BayesianMAPLS(Cls(), prior='uniform', temperature=1, exact_train_prev=False, val_split=val_split), multiclass_method
+    # yield 'BayEMQ*', emq, acc_hyper, lambda hyper: BayesianMAPLS(Cls(), prior='uniform', temperature=None, exact_train_prev=False, val_split=val_split), multiclass_method
+    # yield 'BayEMQ!', emq, acc_hyper, lambda hyper: BayesianMAPLS(Cls(), prior='uniform', temperature=None, exact_train_prev=False, val_split=val_split), multiclass_method
+    # yield 'BaEMQ', emq, acc_hyper, lambda hyper: BayesianMAPLS(Cls(**{k.replace('classifier__', ''): v for k, v in hyper.items()}), prior='uniform', temperature=1, exact_train_prev=False, val_split=val_split), multiclass_method
+
+    # yield 'BaACC!', acc, acc_hyper, lambda hyper: BayesianCC(Cls(**{k.replace('classifier__', ''): v for k, v in hyper.items()}), temperature=None, mcmc_seed=0), multiclass_method
+    # yield 'BaEMQ!', emq, acc_hyper, lambda hyper: BayesianMAPLS(Cls(**{k.replace('classifier__', ''): v for k, v in hyper.items()}), prior='uniform', temperature=None, exact_train_prev=False), multiclass_method
+
+
+def model_selection(dataset: DatasetHandler, point_quantifier: AggregativeQuantifier, grid: dict):
+    with qp.util.temp_seed(0):
+        point_quantifier = cp(point_quantifier)
+        print(f'performing model selection for {point_quantifier.__class__.__name__} with grid {grid}')
+        # model selection
+        if len(grid)>0:
+            train, val_prot = dataset.get_train_valprot_for_modsel()
+            mod_sel = GridSearchQ(
+                model=point_quantifier,
+                param_grid=grid,
+                protocol=val_prot,
+                refit=False,
+                n_jobs=-1,
+                verbose=True
+            ).fit(*train.Xy)
+            best_params = mod_sel.best_params_
+        else:
+            best_params = {}
+
+        return best_params
+
+
+def temperature_calibration(dataset: DatasetHandler, uncertainty_quantifier):
+    temperature = None
+    if hasattr(uncertainty_quantifier, 'temperature'): 
+        if uncertainty_quantifier.temperature is None:
+            print('calibrating temperature')
+            train, val_prot = dataset.get_train_valprot_for_modsel()
+            temp_grid=[1., .5, 1.5, 2., 5., 10., 100., 1000.]
+            temperature = temp_calibration(uncertainty_quantifier, train, val_prot, temp_grid=temp_grid, n_jobs=-1, amplitude_threshold=1., criterion='winkler')
+            uncertainty_quantifier.temperature = temperature
+        else:
+            temperature = uncertainty_quantifier.temperature
+    return temperature
+    
+
+def experiment(dataset: DatasetHandler, method: MethodDescriptor, hyper_choice_path: Path):
+
+    with qp.util.temp_seed(0):
+
+        # model selection
+        best_hyperparams = qp.util.pickled_resource(
+            hyper_choice_path, model_selection, dataset, method.surrogate_quantifier(), method.hyper_parameters
+        )
+        print(f'{best_hyperparams=}')
+
+        t_init = time()
+        uncertainty_quantifier = method.uncertainty_aware_quantifier(best_hyperparams)
+        temperature = temperature_calibration(dataset, uncertainty_quantifier)
+        training, test_generator = dataset.get_train_testprot_for_eval()
+        uncertainty_quantifier.fit(*training.Xy)
+        tr_time = time() - t_init
+
+        # test
+        train_prevalence = training.prevalence()
+        results = defaultdict(list)
+        pbar = tqdm(enumerate(test_generator()), total=test_generator.total())
+        for i, (sample_X, true_prevalence) in pbar:
+            t_init = time()
+            point_estimate, region = uncertainty_quantifier.predict_conf(sample_X)
+            ttime = time()-t_init
+
+            results['true-prevs'].append(true_prevalence)
+            results['point-estim'].append(point_estimate)
+            results['shift'].append(qp.error.ae(true_prevalence, train_prevalence))
+            results['ae'].append(qp.error.ae(prevs_true=true_prevalence, prevs_hat=point_estimate))
+            results['rae'].append(qp.error.rae(prevs_true=true_prevalence, prevs_hat=point_estimate))
+            results['sre'].append(qp.error.sre(prevs_true=true_prevalence, prevs_hat=point_estimate, prevs_train=train_prevalence))
+            results['coverage'].append(region.coverage(true_prevalence))
+            results['amplitude'].append(region.montecarlo_proportion(n_trials=50_000))
+            results['test-time'].append(ttime)
+            results['samples'].append(region.samples)
+
+            pbar.set_description(
+                f'{method.name} '
+                f'MAE={np.mean(results["ae"]):.5f} '
+                f'W={np.mean(results["sre"]):.5f} '
+                f'Cov={np.mean(results["coverage"]):.5f} '
+                f'AMP={np.mean(results["amplitude"]):.5f}'
+            )
+
+        report = {
+            'optim_hyper': best_hyperparams,
+            'train_time': tr_time,
+            'train-prev': train_prevalence,
+            'results': {k:np.asarray(v) for k,v in results.items()},
+            'temperature': temperature
+        }
+
+        return report
+
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+
+    result_dir = RESULT_DIR
+
+    for data_handler in [LeQuaHandler]:#, UCIMulticlassHandler, LeQuaHandler, VisualDataHandler, CIFAR100Handler]:
+        for dataset in data_handler.iter():
+            qp.environ['SAMPLE_SIZE'] = dataset.sample_size
+            print(f'dataset={dataset.name}')
+
+            problem_type = 'binary' if dataset.is_binary() else 'multiclass'
+
+            for method in get_experimental_methods():
+                # skip combination?
+                if method.binary_only() and not dataset.is_binary():
+                    continue
+
+                result_path = experiment_path(result_dir / problem_type, dataset.name, method.name)
+                hyper_path  = experiment_path(result_dir / 'hyperparams' / problem_type, dataset.name, method.surrogate_quantifier_name())
+
+                report = qp.util.pickled_resource(
+                    result_path, experiment, dataset, method, hyper_path
+                )
+
+                print(f'dataset={dataset.name}, '
+                      f'method={method.name}: '
+                      f'mae={report["results"]["ae"].mean():.5f}, '
+                      f'W={report["results"]["sre"].mean():.5f}, '
+                      f'coverage={report["results"]["coverage"].mean():.5f}, '
+                      f'amplitude={report["results"]["amplitude"].mean():.5f}, ')
+
+
+
+

BayesianKDEy/generate_results.py

@@ -0,0 +1,407 @@
+import pickle
+from collections import defaultdict
+import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
+import seaborn as sns
+from joblib import Parallel, delayed
+from tqdm import tqdm
+import pandas as pd
+from glob import glob
+from pathlib import Path
+import quapy as qp
+from BayesianKDEy.commons import RESULT_DIR
+from BayesianKDEy.datasets import LeQuaHandler, UCIMulticlassHandler, VisualDataHandler, CIFAR100Handler
+from comparison_group import SelectGreaterThan, SelectByName, SelectSmallerThan
+from format import FormatModifierSelectColor
+from quapy.error import dist_aitchison
+from quapy.method.confidence import ConfidenceIntervals, ConfidenceIntervalsILR, ConfidenceIntervalsCLR
+from quapy.method.confidence import ConfidenceEllipseSimplex, ConfidenceEllipseCLR, ConfidenceEllipseILR, ConfidenceIntervals, ConfidenceRegionABC
+import quapy.functional as F
+from result_path.src.table import LatexTable
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from itertools import chain
+
+pd.set_option('display.max_columns', None)
+pd.set_option('display.width', 2000)
+pd.set_option('display.max_rows', None)
+pd.set_option("display.expand_frame_repr", False)
+pd.set_option("display.precision", 4)
+pd.set_option("display.float_format", "{:.4f}".format)
+
+
+# methods = None  # show all methods
+methods = ['BoCC',
+           'BaACC!',
+           'BaEMQ!',
+           'BaKDE-Gau-T!',
+           'BaKDE-Ait-T!',
+           'BaKDE-Ait-T!2'
+           #'BootstrapACC',
+           #'BootstrapHDy',
+           #'BootstrapKDEy',
+           #'BootstrapEMQ'
+           ]
+
+def region_score(true_prev, region: ConfidenceRegionABC):
+    amp = region.montecarlo_proportion(50_000)
+    if true_prev in region:
+        cost = 0
+    else:
+        scale_cost = 1/region.alpha
+        cost = scale_cost * dist_aitchison(true_prev, region.closest_point_in_region(true_prev))
+    return amp + cost
+
+
+
+def compute_coverage_amplitude(region_constructor, **kwargs):
+    all_samples = results['samples']
+    all_true_prevs = results['true-prevs']
+
+    def process_one(samples, true_prevs):
+        region = region_constructor(samples, **kwargs)
+        if isinstance(region, ConfidenceIntervals) or isinstance(region, ConfidenceIntervalsCLR) or isinstance(region, ConfidenceIntervalsILR):
+            winkler = region.mean_winkler_score(true_prevs)
+            # winkler_e = region.mean_winkler_score(true_prevs, add_ae=True)
+            cov_soft = region.coverage_soft(true_prevs)
+        else:
+            winkler = None
+            # winkler_e = None
+            cov_soft = None
+        return region.coverage(true_prevs), region.montecarlo_proportion(), winkler, cov_soft
+
+    out = Parallel(n_jobs=3)(
+        delayed(process_one)(samples, true_prevs)
+        for samples, true_prevs in tqdm(
+            zip(all_samples, all_true_prevs),
+            total=len(all_samples),
+            desc='constructing ellipses'
+        )
+    )
+
+    # unzip results
+    coverage, amplitude, winkler, cov_soft = zip(*out)
+    return list(coverage), list(amplitude), list(winkler), list(cov_soft)
+
+
+def update_pickle(report, pickle_path, updated_dict:dict):
+    for k,v in updated_dict.items():
+        report[k]=v
+    pickle.dump(report, open(pickle_path, 'wb'), protocol=pickle.HIGHEST_PROTOCOL)
+
+
+def update_pickle_with_region(report, file, conf_name, conf_region_class, **kwargs):
+    if f'coverage-{conf_name}' not in report:
+        covs, amps, winkler, cov_soft = compute_coverage_amplitude(conf_region_class, **kwargs)
+
+        update_fields = {
+            f'coverage-{conf_name}': covs,
+            f'amplitude-{conf_name}': amps,
+            f'winkler-{conf_name}': winkler,
+            f'coverage-soft-{conf_name}': cov_soft
+        }
+
+        update_pickle(report, file, update_fields)
+
+
+def pareto_front(df, x_col, y_col, maximize_y=True, minimize_x=True):
+    """
+    Returns a boolean mask indicating whether each row is Pareto-optimal.
+    """
+    X = df[x_col].values
+    Y = df[y_col].values
+
+    is_pareto = np.ones(len(df), dtype=bool)
+
+    for i in range(len(df)):
+        if not is_pareto[i]:
+            continue
+        for j in range(len(df)):
+            if i == j:
+                continue
+
+            better_or_equal_x = X[j] <= X[i] if minimize_x else X[j] >= X[i]
+            better_or_equal_y = Y[j] >= Y[i] if maximize_y else Y[j] <= Y[i]
+
+            strictly_better = (
+                (X[j] < X[i] if minimize_x else X[j] > X[i]) or
+                (Y[j] > Y[i] if maximize_y else Y[j] < Y[i])
+            )
+
+            if better_or_equal_x and better_or_equal_y and strictly_better:
+                is_pareto[i] = False
+                break
+
+    return is_pareto
+
+def plot_coverage_vs_amplitude(
+    df,
+    coverage_col,
+    amplitude_col="a-CI",
+    method_col="method",
+    dataset_col=None,
+    error_col=None,
+    error_threshold=None,
+    nominal_coverage=0.95,
+    title=None,
+):
+    df_plot = df.copy()
+
+    # Optional error filtering
+    if error_col is not None and error_threshold is not None:
+        df_plot = df_plot[df_plot[error_col] <= error_threshold]
+
+    # Compute Pareto front
+    pareto_mask = pareto_front(
+        df_plot,
+        x_col=amplitude_col,
+        y_col=coverage_col,
+        maximize_y=True,
+        minimize_x=True
+    )
+
+    plt.figure(figsize=(7, 6))
+
+    # Base scatter
+    sns.scatterplot(
+        data=df_plot,
+        x=amplitude_col,
+        y=coverage_col,
+        hue=method_col,
+        # style=dataset_col,
+        alpha=0.6,
+        s=60,
+        legend=True
+    )
+
+    # Highlight Pareto front
+    plt.scatter(
+        df_plot.loc[pareto_mask, amplitude_col],
+        df_plot.loc[pareto_mask, coverage_col],
+        facecolors='none',
+        edgecolors='black',
+        s=120,
+        linewidths=1.5,
+        label="Pareto front"
+    )
+
+    # Nominal coverage line
+    plt.axhline(
+        nominal_coverage,
+        linestyle="--",
+        color="gray",
+        linewidth=1,
+        label="Nominal coverage"
+    )
+
+    plt.xlabel("Amplitude (fraction of simplex)")
+    plt.ylabel("Coverage")
+    plt.ylim(0, 1.05)
+
+    if title is not None:
+        plt.title(title)
+
+    plt.legend(bbox_to_anchor=(1.05, 1), loc="upper left")
+    plt.tight_layout()
+    plt.show()
+
+
+def nicer_method(name:str):
+    replacements = {
+        # 'Bayesian': 'Ba',
+        'Bootstrap': 'Bo',
+        '-numpyro': '',
+        'emcee': 'emc',
+        '-T*': '*',
+        '-T!': '',
+        '!': '',
+        '-Ait': r'$^{(\mathrm{Ait})}$',
+        '-Gau': r'$^{(\mathrm{Gau})}$'
+    }
+    for k, v in replacements.items():
+        name = name.replace(k,v)
+    return name
+
+
+def nicer_data(name:str):
+    replacements = {
+        'cifar': 'CIFAR',
+        '-l': '',
+        'mnist': 'MNIST',
+        'fashionmnist': 'fashionMNIST',
+        'svhn': 'SVHN',
+        '100coarse': '100(20)',
+    }
+    for k, v in replacements.items():
+        name = name.replace(k, v)
+    return name
+
+
+base_dir = RESULT_DIR
+
+table = defaultdict(list)
+n_classes = {}
+tr_size   = {}
+tr_prev   = {}
+
+dataset_class = [UCIMulticlassHandler, CIFAR100Handler, VisualDataHandler, LeQuaHandler]
+dataset_order = []
+for handler in dataset_class:
+    for dataset in handler.iter():
+        dataset_order.append(dataset.name)
+        train = dataset.get_training()
+        n_classes[dataset.name] = train.n_classes
+        tr_size[dataset.name] = len(train)
+        tr_prev[dataset.name] = F.strprev(train.prevalence())
+
+
+problem_type = 'multiclass'
+path = f'./{base_dir}/{problem_type}/*.pkl'
+    
+for file in tqdm(glob(path), desc='processing results', total=len(glob(path))):
+    file = Path(file)
+    dataset, method = file.name.replace('.pkl', '').split('__')
+    if (method not in methods) or (dataset not in dataset_order):
+        continue
+
+    report = pickle.load(open(file, 'rb'))
+    results = report['results']
+    n_samples = len(results['ae'])
+    table['method'].extend([nicer_method(method)] * n_samples)
+    table['dataset'].extend([nicer_data(dataset)] * n_samples)
+    table['ae'].extend(results['ae'])
+    table['rae'].extend(results['rae'])
+    # table['c-CI'].extend(results['coverage'])
+    # table['a-CI'].extend(results['amplitude'])
+
+    # update_pickle_with_region(report, file, conf_name='CI-ILR', conf_region_class=ConfidenceIntervalsILR, bonferroni_correction=True)
+    # update_pickle_with_region(report, file, conf_name='CI-CLR', conf_region_class=ConfidenceIntervalsCLR, bonferroni_correction=True)
+    update_pickle_with_region(report, file, conf_name='CI', conf_region_class=ConfidenceIntervals, bonferroni_correction=True)
+    update_pickle_with_region(report, file, conf_name='CInb', conf_region_class=ConfidenceIntervals, bonferroni_correction=False)  # no Bonferroni-correction
+    # update_pickle_with_region(report, file, conf_name='CE', conf_region_class=ConfidenceEllipseSimplex)
+    # update_pickle_with_region(report, file, conf_name='CLR', conf_region_class=ConfidenceEllipseCLR)
+    # update_pickle_with_region(report, file, conf_name='ILR', conf_region_class=ConfidenceEllipseILR)
+
+    conf_bonferroni = 'CI'
+    conf_name='CInb'
+    table['c-CI'].extend(report[f'coverage-{conf_bonferroni}'])  # the true coverage is better measured with Bonferroni-correction
+    table['w-CI'].extend(report[f'winkler-{conf_name}'])
+    table['cs-CI'].extend(report[f'coverage-soft-{conf_name}'])
+    table['a-CI'].extend(report[f'amplitude-{conf_name}'])
+
+    # table['aitch'].extend(qp.error.dist_aitchison(results['true-prevs'], results['point-estim']))  # not in this paper...
+    table['SRE'].extend(qp.error.sre(results['true-prevs'], results['point-estim'], report['train-prev'], eps=0.001))
+
+
+
+# remove datasets with more than max_classes classes
+# max_classes = 25
+# min_train   = 500
+# ignore_datasets = ['poker_hand', 'hcv']
+# for data_name, n in n_classes.items():
+#     if n > max_classes:
+#         df = df[df["dataset"] != data_name]
+# for data_name, n in tr_size.items():
+#     if n < min_train:
+#         df = df[df["dataset"] != data_name]
+# for data_name, n in tr_size.items():
+#     if data_name in ignore_datasets:
+#         df = df[df["dataset"] != data_name]
+
+
+
+
+df = pd.DataFrame(table)
+df['a-CI'] *= 100
+df['c-CI'] *= 100
+df['cs-CI'] *= 100
+
+for region in ['CI']: #, 'CLR', 'ILR', 'CI']:
+    if problem_type == 'binary' and region=='ILR':
+        continue
+    for column in [f'a-{region}', 'ae', 'SRE', f'c-{region}', f'cs-{region}']: # f'w-{region}'
+        pv = pd.pivot_table(
+            df, index='dataset', columns='method', values=column, margins=True
+        )
+        pv['n_classes'] = pv.index.map(n_classes).astype('Int64')
+        pv['tr_size'] = pv.index.map(tr_size).astype('Int64')
+        #pv['tr-prev'] = pv.index.map(tr_prev)
+        pv = pv.drop(columns=[col for col in pv.columns if col == "All" or col[-1]=='All'])
+        print(f'{problem_type=} {column=}')
+        print(pv)
+        print('-'*80)
+
+        latex = LatexTable.from_dataframe(df, method='method', benchmark='dataset', value=column, name=column)
+        latex.format.configuration.show_std = False
+        #latex.reorder_methods([nicer_method(m) for m in methods])
+        latex.reorder_benchmarks([nicer_data(d) for d in dataset_order])
+        if column in ['ae', 'SRE']:
+            latex.format.configuration.lower_is_better = True
+            latex.format.configuration.stat_test = 'wilcoxon'
+            #latex.format.configuration.stat_test = None
+            # latex.format.configuration.show_std = True
+
+        if column in [f'c-{region}', f'cs-{region}']:
+            latex.format.configuration.lower_is_better = False
+            latex.format.configuration.stat_test = None
+            latex.format.configuration.with_color = False
+            latex.format.configuration.best_in_bold = False
+            latex.format.configuration.with_rank = False
+            latex.format.configuration.mean_prec = 0
+            latex.add_format_modifier(
+                format_modifier=FormatModifierSelectColor(
+                    comparison=SelectGreaterThan(reference_selector=89, input_selector=SelectByName())
+                )
+            )
+        if column in [f'a-{region}']:
+            latex.format.configuration.lower_is_better = True
+            latex.format.configuration.stat_test = None
+            latex.format.configuration.with_color = False
+            latex.format.configuration.best_in_bold = False
+            latex.format.configuration.mean_prec = 2
+            latex.add_format_modifier(
+                format_modifier=FormatModifierSelectColor(
+                    comparison=SelectSmallerThan(reference_selector=11, input_selector=SelectByName())
+                )
+            )
+            # latex.add_format_modifier(
+            #     format_modifier=FormatModifierSelectColor(
+            #         comparison=SelectSmallerThan(reference_selector=0.01, input_selector=SelectByName()),
+            #         intensity=50
+            #     )
+            # )
+
+        latex.format.configuration.resizebox=.5
+        latex.latexPDF(pdf_path=f'./tables/{latex.name}.pdf')
+
+
+df = df[df['method']!='BaACC']
+df = df[df['method']!='BaACC*']
+df = df[df['method']!='BaACC+']
+df = df[df['method']!='BaKDE-Ait*']
+df = df[df['method']!='BaKDE-Gau*']
+df = df[df['method']!='BayEMQ*']
+grouped = df.groupby(["method", "dataset"])
+agg = grouped.agg(
+    ae_mean=("ae", "mean"),
+    ae_std=("ae", "std"),
+    sre_mean=("SRE", "mean"),
+    sre_std=("SRE", "std"),
+    coverage_mean=("c-CI", "mean"),
+    coverage_std=("c-CI", "std"),
+    coverage_soft_mean=("cs-CI", "mean"),
+    amplitude_mean=("a-CI", "mean"),
+    amplitude_std=("a-CI", "std"),
+).reset_index()
+
+#plot_coverage_vs_amplitude(
+#    agg,
+#    coverage_col="coverage_soft_mean",
+#    amplitude_col="amplitude_mean",
+#    method_col="method",
+#    dataset_col="dataset",
+#    nominal_coverage=0.95,
+#    title="Marginal coverage vs amplitude"
+#)
+
+
+#print('RESTITUIR EL WILCOXON')

BayesianKDEy/map_experiments.py

@@ -0,0 +1,169 @@
+import os.path
+from pathlib import Path
+import pandas as pd
+from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression
+from copy import deepcopy as cp
+import quapy as qp
+from BayesianKDEy.commons import KDEyReduce
+from _bayeisan_kdey import BayesianKDEy
+from _bayesian_mapls import BayesianMAPLS
+from commons import experiment_path, KDEyCLR, RESULT_DIR, MockClassifierFromPosteriors, KDEyScaledB, KDEyFresh
+# import datasets
+from datasets import LeQuaHandler, UCIMulticlassHandler, DatasetHandler, VisualDataHandler, CIFAR100Handler
+from method.confidence import ConfidenceIntervals
+from temperature_calibration import temp_calibration
+from build.lib.quapy.data import LabelledCollection
+from quapy.method.aggregative import DistributionMatchingY as DMy, AggregativeQuantifier, EMQ, CC
+from quapy.model_selection import GridSearchQ
+from quapy.data import Dataset
+from quapy.method.confidence import BayesianCC, AggregativeBootstrap
+from quapy.method.aggregative import KDEyML, ACC
+from quapy.protocol import UPP
+import numpy as np
+from tqdm import tqdm
+from collections import defaultdict
+from time import time
+
+
+def methods(data_handler: DatasetHandler):
+    """
+    Returns a tuple (name, quantifier, hyperparams, bayesian/bootstrap_constructor), where:
+    - name: is a str representing the name of the method (e.g., 'BayesianKDEy')
+    - quantifier: is the base model (e.g., KDEyML())
+    - hyperparams: is a dictionary for the quantifier (e.g., {'bandwidth': [0.001, 0.005, 0.01, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2]})
+    - bayesian/bootstrap_constructor: is a function that instantiates the bayesian o bootstrap method with the
+        quantifier with optimized hyperparameters
+    """
+    if isinstance(data_handler, VisualDataHandler):
+        Cls = LogisticRegression
+        cls_hyper = {}
+    else:
+        Cls = LogisticRegression
+        cls_hyper = {'classifier__C': np.logspace(-4, 4, 9), 'classifier__class_weight': ['balanced', None]}
+    kdey_hyper = {'bandwidth': np.logspace(-3, -1, 10), **cls_hyper}
+    kdey_hyper_larger = {'bandwidth': np.logspace(-1, 0, 10), **cls_hyper}
+    kdey_hyper_clr = {'bandwidth': np.logspace(-2, 2, 10), **cls_hyper}
+
+    # surrogate quantifiers
+    kde_gau_scale = KDEyScaledB(Cls())
+
+    yield 'KDEy-G-exp', kdey_hyper, KDEyML(Cls())
+    # yield 'KDEy-G-exp2', kdey_hyper_larger, KDEyML(Cls())
+    # yield 'KDEy-G-log', kdey_hyper, KDEyML(Cls(), logdensities=True)
+    yield 'KDEy-Ait', kdey_hyper_clr, KDEyCLR(Cls())
+
+
+def model_selection(dataset: DatasetHandler, point_quantifier: AggregativeQuantifier, grid: dict):
+    with qp.util.temp_seed(0):
+        if isinstance(point_quantifier, KDEyScaledB) and 'bandwidth' in grid:
+            def scale_bandwidth(bandwidth, n_classes, beta=0.5):
+                return bandwidth * np.power(n_classes, beta)
+
+            n = dataset.get_training().n_classes
+            grid['bandwidth'] = [scale_bandwidth(b, n) for b in grid['bandwidth']]
+            print('bandwidth scaled')
+        print(f'performing model selection for {point_quantifier.__class__.__name__} with grid {grid}')
+        # model selection
+        if len(grid) > 0:
+            train, val_prot = dataset.get_train_valprot_for_modsel()
+            mod_sel = GridSearchQ(
+                model=point_quantifier,
+                param_grid=grid,
+                protocol=val_prot,
+                refit=False,
+                n_jobs=-1,
+                verbose=True
+            ).fit(*train.Xy)
+            best_params = mod_sel.best_params_
+        else:
+            best_params = {}
+
+        return best_params
+
+
+def experiment(dataset: DatasetHandler,
+               point_quantifier: AggregativeQuantifier,
+               method_name: str,
+               grid: dict,
+               hyper_choice_path: Path):
+
+    with qp.util.temp_seed(0):
+        # model selection
+        best_hyperparams = qp.util.pickled_resource(
+            hyper_choice_path, model_selection, dataset, cp(point_quantifier), grid
+        )
+        print(f'{best_hyperparams=}')
+
+        t_init = time()
+        training, test_generator = dataset.get_train_testprot_for_eval()
+        point_quantifier.fit(*training.Xy)
+        tr_time = time() - t_init
+
+        # test
+        train_prevalence = training.prevalence()
+        results = defaultdict(list)
+        pbar = tqdm(enumerate(test_generator()), total=test_generator.total())
+        for i, (sample_X, true_prevalence) in pbar:
+            t_init = time()
+            point_estimate = point_quantifier.predict(sample_X)
+            ttime = time() - t_init
+
+            results['true-prevs'].append(true_prevalence)
+            results['point-estim'].append(point_estimate)
+            results['shift'].append(qp.error.ae(true_prevalence, train_prevalence))
+            results['ae'].append(qp.error.ae(prevs_true=true_prevalence, prevs_hat=point_estimate))
+            results['rae'].append(qp.error.rae(prevs_true=true_prevalence, prevs_hat=point_estimate))
+            results['sre'].append(qp.error.sre(prevs_true=true_prevalence, prevs_hat=point_estimate, prevs_train=train_prevalence))
+            results['test-time'].append(ttime)
+
+            pbar.set_description(
+                f'{method_name} MAE={np.mean(results["ae"]):.5f} W={np.mean(results["sre"]):.5f}')
+
+        report = {
+            'optim_hyper': best_hyperparams,
+            'train_time': tr_time,
+            'train-prev': train_prevalence,
+            'results': {k: np.asarray(v) for k, v in results.items()},
+        }
+
+        return report
+
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+
+    result_dir = Path('results_map')
+
+    reports = defaultdict(list)
+
+    for data_handler in [UCIMulticlassHandler]:  # , UCIMulticlassHandler, LeQuaHandler, VisualDataHandler, CIFAR100Handler]:
+        for dataset in data_handler.iter():
+            qp.environ['SAMPLE_SIZE'] = dataset.sample_size
+            # print(f'dataset={dataset.name}')
+
+            problem_type = 'binary' if dataset.is_binary() else 'multiclass'
+            for method_name, hyper_params, quantifier in methods(dataset):
+
+                result_path = experiment_path(result_dir / problem_type, dataset.name, method_name)
+                hyper_path = experiment_path(result_dir / 'hyperparams' / problem_type, dataset.name, method_name)
+
+                # if os.path.exists(result_path):
+                report = qp.util.pickled_resource(
+                    result_path, experiment, dataset, quantifier, method_name, hyper_params, hyper_path
+                )
+                reports['dataset'].append(dataset.name)
+                reports['method'].append(method_name)
+                reports['MAE'].append(report["results"]["ae"].mean())
+                reports['SRE'].append(report["results"]["sre"].mean())
+                reports['h'].append(report["optim_hyper"]["bandwidth"])
+
+                print(f'dataset={dataset.name}, '
+                      f'method={method_name}: '
+                      f'mae={reports["MAE"][-1]:.5f}, '
+                      f'W={reports["SRE"][-1]:.5f} '
+                      f'h={reports["h"][-1]}')
+
+    pv = pd.DataFrame(reports).pivot_table(values=['MAE', 'SRE', 'h'], index='dataset', columns='method', margins=True)
+    print(pv)
+
+
+

BayesianKDEy/methods.py

@@ -0,0 +1,168 @@
+from abc import ABC, abstractmethod
+import numpy as np
+from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression
+
+from BayesianKDEy._bayeisan_kdey import BayesianKDEy
+from BayesianKDEy._bayesian_mapls import BayesianMAPLS
+from BayesianKDEy.commons import KDEyCLR, KDEyCLR2
+from quapy.method.aggregative import CC, ACC, EMQ, DMy, KDEyML
+from quapy.method.base import BaseQuantifier
+from quapy.method.confidence import AggregativeBootstrap, BayesianCC
+
+
+def get_experimental_methods():
+    #yield BootsCC()
+    #yield BayACC()
+    #yield BayEMQ()
+    #yield BayKDEyGau()
+    #yield BayKDEyAit()
+    yield BayKDEyAit2()
+
+
+# commons
+# ------------------------------------------------------------
+Cls = LogisticRegression
+cls_hyper = {
+    'classifier__C': np.logspace(-4,4,9),
+    'classifier__class_weight': ['balanced', None]
+}
+hdy_hyper = {'nbins': [3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10, 12, 14, 16, 32], **cls_hyper}
+kdey_hyper = {'bandwidth': np.logspace(-3, -1, 10), **cls_hyper}
+kdey_hyper_clr = {'bandwidth': np.logspace(-2, 2, 10), **cls_hyper}
+
+def hyper2cls(hyperparams):
+    return {k.replace('classifier__', ''): v for k, v in hyperparams.items()}
+
+
+# method descriptor logic
+# ------------------------------------------------------------
+class MethodDescriptor(ABC):
+    def __init__(self,
+                 name: str,
+                 surrogate_quantifier: BaseQuantifier,
+                 hyper_parameters: dict,
+                 ):
+        self.name = name
+        self.surrogate_quantifier_ = surrogate_quantifier
+        self.hyper_parameters = hyper_parameters
+
+    @abstractmethod
+    def binary_only(self): ...
+
+    def surrogate_quantifier(self):
+        return self.surrogate_quantifier_
+
+    def surrogate_quantifier_name(self):
+        return self.surrogate_quantifier_.__class__.__name__
+
+    @abstractmethod
+    def uncertainty_aware_quantifier(self, hyperparameters): ...
+
+
+class MulticlassMethodDescriptor(MethodDescriptor):
+
+    def binary_only(self):
+        return False
+
+
+# specific methods definitions
+# ------------------------------------------------------------
+# ------------------------------------------------------------
+
+# Bootstrap approaches:
+# ------------------------------------------------------------
+class BootsCC(MulticlassMethodDescriptor):
+    def __init__(self):
+        super().__init__(name='BoCC', surrogate_quantifier=CC(Cls()), hyper_parameters=cls_hyper)
+
+    def uncertainty_aware_quantifier(self, hyperparameters):
+        quantifier = CC(Cls()).set_params(**hyperparameters)
+        return AggregativeBootstrap(quantifier, n_test_samples=1000, random_state=0)
+
+
+# class BootsACC(MulticlassMethodDescriptor):
+#     def __init__(self):
+#         super().__init__(name='BoACC', surrogate_quantifier=ACC(Cls()), hyper_parameters=cls_hyper)
+#
+#     def uncertainty_aware_quantifier(self, hyperparameters):
+#         quantifier = ACC(Cls()).set_params(**hyperparameters)
+#         return AggregativeBootstrap(quantifier, n_test_samples=1000, random_state=0)
+#
+#
+# class BootsEMQ(MulticlassMethodDescriptor):
+#     def __init__(self):
+#         super().__init__(name='BoEMQ', surrogate_quantifier=EMQ(Cls(), exact_train_prev=False), hyper_parameters=cls_hyper)
+#
+#     def uncertainty_aware_quantifier(self, hyperparameters):
+#         quantifier = EMQ(Cls(), exact_train_prev=False).set_params(**hyperparameters)
+#         return AggregativeBootstrap(quantifier, n_test_samples=1000, random_state=0)
+
+
+# class BootsHDy(MethodDescriptor):
+#     def __init__(self):
+#         super().__init__(name='BoHDy', surrogate_quantifier=DMy(Cls()), hyper_parameters=hdy_hyper)
+#
+#     def uncertainty_aware_quantifier(self, hyperparameters):
+#         quantifier = DMy(Cls()).set_params(**hyperparameters)
+#         return AggregativeBootstrap(quantifier, n_test_samples=1000, random_state=0)
+#
+#     def binary_only(self):
+#         return True
+
+# class BootsKDEy(MulticlassMethodDescriptor):
+#     def __init__(self):
+#         super().__init__(name='BoKDEy', surrogate_quantifier=KDEyML(Cls()), hyper_parameters=kdey_hyper)
+#
+#     def uncertainty_aware_quantifier(self, hyperparameters):
+#         quantifier = KDEyML(Cls()).set_params(**hyperparameters)
+#         return AggregativeBootstrap(quantifier, n_test_samples=1000, random_state=0)
+
+
+# Bayesian approaches:
+# ------------------------------------------------------------
+class BayACC(MulticlassMethodDescriptor):
+    def __init__(self):
+        super().__init__(name='BaACC!', surrogate_quantifier=ACC(Cls()), hyper_parameters=cls_hyper)
+
+    def uncertainty_aware_quantifier(self, hyperparameters):
+        classifier = Cls(**hyper2cls(hyperparameters))
+        return BayesianCC(classifier, temperature=None, mcmc_seed=0)  # is actually a Bayesian variant of ACC
+
+
+class BayEMQ(MulticlassMethodDescriptor):
+    def __init__(self):
+        super().__init__(name='BaEMQ!', surrogate_quantifier=EMQ(Cls(), exact_train_prev=False), hyper_parameters=cls_hyper)
+
+    def uncertainty_aware_quantifier(self, hyperparameters):
+        classifier = Cls(**hyper2cls(hyperparameters))
+        return BayesianMAPLS(classifier, prior='uniform', temperature=None, exact_train_prev=False)
+
+
+class BayKDEyGau(MulticlassMethodDescriptor):
+    def __init__(self):
+        kdey_hyper = {'bandwidth': np.logspace(-3, -1, 10), **cls_hyper}
+        super().__init__(name='BaKDE-Gau-T!', surrogate_quantifier=KDEyML(Cls()), hyper_parameters=kdey_hyper)
+
+    def uncertainty_aware_quantifier(self, hyperparameters):
+        return BayesianKDEy(Cls(), kernel='gaussian', temperature=None, mcmc_seed=0, **hyperparameters)
+
+
+class BayKDEyAit(MulticlassMethodDescriptor):
+    def __init__(self):
+        kdey_hyper = {'bandwidth': np.logspace(-2, 2, 10), **cls_hyper}
+        super().__init__(name='BaKDE-Ait-T!', surrogate_quantifier=KDEyCLR(Cls()), hyper_parameters=kdey_hyper)
+
+    def uncertainty_aware_quantifier(self, hyperparameters):
+        return BayesianKDEy(Cls(), kernel='aitchison', temperature=None, mcmc_seed=0, **hyperparameters)
+    
+
+class BayKDEyAit2(MulticlassMethodDescriptor):
+    def __init__(self):
+        kdey_hyper = {'bandwidth': np.linspace(0.05, 2., 10), **cls_hyper}
+        super().__init__(name='BaKDE-Ait-T!2', surrogate_quantifier=KDEyCLR2(Cls()), hyper_parameters=kdey_hyper)
+
+    def uncertainty_aware_quantifier(self, hyperparameters):
+        return BayesianKDEy(Cls(), kernel='aitchison', temperature=None, mcmc_seed=0, **hyperparameters)
+
+
+

BayesianKDEy/plot_simplex.py

@@ -0,0 +1,560 @@
+import os
+import pickle
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
+from matplotlib.colors import ListedColormap, LinearSegmentedColormap
+from scipy.stats import gaussian_kde
+from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
+
+from BayesianKDEy.commons import antagonistic_prevalence, in_simplex
+from method.confidence import (ConfidenceIntervals as CI,
+                               ConfidenceIntervalsCLR as CICLR,
+                               ConfidenceIntervalsILR as CIILR,
+                               ConfidenceEllipseSimplex as CE,
+                               ConfidenceEllipseCLR as CLR,
+                               ConfidenceEllipseILR as ILR)
+
+
+
+def get_region_colormap(name="blue", alpha=0.40):
+    name = name.lower()
+    if name == "blue":
+        base = (76/255, 114/255, 176/255)
+    elif name == "orange":
+        base = (221/255, 132/255, 82/255)
+    elif name == "violet":
+        base = (129/255, 114/255, 178/255)
+    else:
+        raise ValueError(f"Unknown palette name: {name}")
+
+    cmap = ListedColormap([
+        (1, 1, 1, 0),              # 0: transparent white
+        (base[0], base[1], base[2], alpha)  # 1: color
+    ])
+
+    return cmap
+
+
+def plot_prev_points(samples=None,
+                     show_samples=True,
+                     true_prev=None,
+                     point_estim=None,
+                     train_prev=None,
+                     show_mean=True,
+                     show_legend=True,
+                     region=None,
+                     region_resolution=1000,
+                     confine_region_in_simplex=False,
+                     color='blue',
+                     save_path=None):
+
+    plt.rcParams.update({
+        'font.size': 10,  # tamaño base de todo el texto
+        'axes.titlesize': 12,  # título del eje
+        'axes.labelsize': 10,  # etiquetas de ejes
+        'xtick.labelsize': 8,  # etiquetas de ticks
+        'ytick.labelsize': 8,
+        'legend.fontsize': 9,  # leyenda
+    })
+
+    def cartesian(p):
+        dim = p.shape[-1]
+        p = p.reshape(-1,dim)
+        x = p[:, 1] + p[:, 2] * 0.5
+        y = p[:, 2] * np.sqrt(3) / 2
+        return x, y
+
+    def barycentric_from_xy(x, y):
+        """
+        Given cartesian (x,y) in simplex returns baricentric coordinates (p1,p2,p3).
+        """
+        p3 = 2 * y / np.sqrt(3)
+        p2 = x - 0.5 * p3
+        p1 = 1 - p2 - p3
+        return np.stack([p1, p2, p3], axis=-1)
+
+    # simplex coordinates
+    v1 = np.array([0, 0])
+    v2 = np.array([1, 0])
+    v3 = np.array([0.5, np.sqrt(3)/2])
+
+    # Plot
+    fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(6, 6))
+
+    if region is not None:
+        if callable(region):
+            region_list = [("region", region)]
+        else:
+            region_list = region  # lista de (name, fn)
+
+    if region is not None:
+        # rectangular mesh
+        x_min, x_max = -0.2, 1.2
+        y_min, y_max = -0.2, np.sqrt(3) / 2 + 0.2
+
+        xs = np.linspace(x_min, x_max, region_resolution)
+        ys = np.linspace(y_min, y_max, region_resolution)
+        grid_x, grid_y = np.meshgrid(xs, ys)
+
+        # barycentric
+        pts_bary = barycentric_from_xy(grid_x, grid_y)
+
+        # mask within simplex
+        if confine_region_in_simplex:
+            in_simplex = np.all(pts_bary >= 0, axis=-1)
+        else:
+            in_simplex = np.full(shape=(region_resolution, region_resolution), fill_value=True, dtype=bool)
+
+        # iterate over regions
+        for (rname, rfun) in region_list:
+            mask = np.zeros_like(in_simplex, dtype=float)
+            valid_pts = pts_bary[in_simplex]
+            mask_vals = np.array([float(rfun(p)) for p in valid_pts])
+            mask[in_simplex] = mask_vals
+
+            ax.pcolormesh(
+                xs, ys, mask,
+                shading='auto',
+                cmap=get_region_colormap(color),
+                alpha=0.3,
+            )
+
+    if samples is not None:
+        if show_samples:
+            ax.scatter(*cartesian(samples), s=15, alpha=0.5, edgecolors='none', label='samples', color='black', linewidth=0.5)
+    if show_mean is not None:
+        if isinstance(show_mean, np.ndarray):
+            ax.scatter(*cartesian(show_mean), s=10, alpha=1, label='sample-mean', edgecolors='black')
+        elif show_mean==True and samples is not None:
+            ax.scatter(*cartesian(samples.mean(axis=0)), s=10, alpha=1, label='sample-mean', edgecolors='black')
+        else:
+            raise ValueError(f'show_mean should either be a boolean (if True, then samples must be provided) or '
+                             f'the mean point itself')
+    if true_prev is not None:
+        ax.scatter(*cartesian(true_prev), s=10, alpha=1, label='true-prev', edgecolors='black')
+    if point_estim is not None:
+        ax.scatter(*cartesian(point_estim), s=10, alpha=1, label='KDEy-estim', edgecolors='black')
+    if train_prev is not None:
+        ax.scatter(*cartesian(train_prev), s=10, alpha=1, label='train-prev', edgecolors='black')
+
+    # edges
+    triangle = np.array([v1, v2, v3, v1])
+    ax.plot(triangle[:, 0], triangle[:, 1], color='black')
+
+    # vertex labels
+    ax.text(-0.05, -0.05, "Y=1", ha='right', va='top')
+    ax.text(1.05, -0.05, "Y=2", ha='left', va='top')
+    ax.text(0.5, np.sqrt(3)/2 + 0.05, "Y=3", ha='center', va='bottom')
+
+    ax.set_aspect('equal')
+    ax.axis('off')
+    if show_legend:
+        plt.legend(
+            loc='center left',
+            bbox_to_anchor=(1.05, 0.5),
+        )
+    plt.tight_layout()
+    if save_path is None:
+        plt.show()
+    else:
+        os.makedirs(Path(save_path).parent, exist_ok=True)
+        plt.savefig(save_path)
+
+
+def plot_prev_points_matplot(points):
+
+    # project 2D
+    v1 = np.array([0, 0])
+    v2 = np.array([1, 0])
+    v3 = np.array([0.5, np.sqrt(3) / 2])
+    x = points[:, 1] + points[:, 2] * 0.5
+    y = points[:, 2] * np.sqrt(3) / 2
+
+    # kde
+    xy = np.vstack([x, y])
+    kde = gaussian_kde(xy, bw_method=0.25)
+    xmin, xmax = 0, 1
+    ymin, ymax = 0, np.sqrt(3) / 2
+
+    # grid
+    xx, yy = np.mgrid[xmin:xmax:200j, ymin:ymax:200j]
+    positions = np.vstack([xx.ravel(), yy.ravel()])
+    zz = np.reshape(kde(positions).T, xx.shape)
+
+    # mask points in simplex
+    def in_triangle(x, y):
+        return (y >= 0) & (y <= np.sqrt(3) * np.minimum(x, 1 - x))
+
+    mask = in_triangle(xx, yy)
+    zz_masked = np.ma.array(zz, mask=~mask)
+
+    # plot
+    fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(6, 6))
+    ax.imshow(
+        np.rot90(zz_masked),
+        cmap=plt.cm.viridis,
+        extent=[xmin, xmax, ymin, ymax],
+        alpha=0.8,
+    )
+
+    # Bordes del triángulo
+    triangle = np.array([v1, v2, v3, v1])
+    ax.plot(triangle[:, 0], triangle[:, 1], color='black', lw=2)
+
+    # Puntos (opcional)
+    ax.scatter(x, y, s=5, c='white', alpha=0.3)
+
+    # Etiquetas
+    ax.text(-0.05, -0.05, "A (1,0,0)", ha='right', va='top')
+    ax.text(1.05, -0.05, "B (0,1,0)", ha='left', va='top')
+    ax.text(0.5, np.sqrt(3) / 2 + 0.05, "C (0,0,1)", ha='center', va='bottom')
+
+    ax.set_aspect('equal')
+    ax.axis('off')
+    plt.show()
+
+# -------- new function
+
+def cartesian(p):
+    dim = p.shape[-1]
+    p = np.atleast_2d(p)
+    x = p[:, 1] + p[:, 2] * 0.5
+    y = p[:, 2] * np.sqrt(3) / 2
+    return x, y
+
+
+def barycentric_from_xy(x, y):
+    """
+    Given cartesian (x,y) in simplex returns baricentric coordinates (p1,p2,p3).
+    """
+    p3 = 2 * y / np.sqrt(3)
+    p2 = x - 0.5 * p3
+    p1 = 1 - p2 - p3
+    return np.stack([p1, p2, p3], axis=-1)
+
+
+def plot_regions(ax, region_layers, resolution, confine):
+    xs = np.linspace(-0.2, 1.2, resolution)
+    ys = np.linspace(-0.2, np.sqrt(3)/2 + 0.2, resolution)
+    grid_x, grid_y = np.meshgrid(xs, ys)
+
+    pts_bary = barycentric_from_xy(grid_x, grid_y)
+
+    if confine:
+        mask_simplex = np.all(pts_bary >= 0, axis=-1)
+    else:
+        mask_simplex = np.ones(grid_x.shape, dtype=bool)
+
+    for region in region_layers:
+        mask = np.zeros_like(mask_simplex, dtype=float)
+        valid_pts = pts_bary[mask_simplex]
+        mask_vals = np.array([float(region["fn"](p)) for p in valid_pts])
+        mask[mask_simplex] = mask_vals
+
+        ax.pcolormesh(
+            xs, ys, mask,
+            shading="auto",
+            cmap=get_region_colormap(region.get("color", "blue")),
+            alpha=region.get("alpha", 0.3),
+            label=region.get("label", None),
+        )
+
+
+
+
+def plot_points(ax, point_layers):
+    for layer in point_layers:
+        pts = layer["points"]
+        style = layer.get("style", {})
+        ax.scatter(
+            *cartesian(pts),
+            label=layer.get("label", None),
+            **style
+        )
+
+def plot_density(
+    ax,
+    density_fn,
+    resolution,
+    densecolor="blue",
+    alpha=1,
+    high_contrast=True  # maps the density values to [0,1] to enhance visualization with the cmap
+):
+    xs = np.linspace(-0.2, 1.2, resolution)
+    ys = np.linspace(-0.2, np.sqrt(3)/2 + 0.2, resolution)
+    grid_x, grid_y = np.meshgrid(xs, ys)
+
+    white_to_color = LinearSegmentedColormap.from_list(
+        "white_to_color",
+        ["white", densecolor]
+    )
+
+    pts_bary = barycentric_from_xy(grid_x, grid_y)
+
+    density = np.zeros(grid_x.shape)
+    flat_pts = pts_bary.reshape(-1, 3)
+
+    density_vals = np.array(density_fn(flat_pts))
+    #density_vals = np.array([density_fn(p) for p in flat_pts])
+    if high_contrast:
+        min_v, max_v = np.min(density_vals), np.max(density_vals)
+        density_vals = (density_vals - min_v)/(max_v-min_v)
+    density[:] = density_vals.reshape(grid_x.shape)
+
+
+    ax.pcolormesh(
+        xs,
+        ys,
+        density,
+        shading="auto",
+        cmap=white_to_color,
+        alpha=alpha,
+    )
+
+
+def plot_simplex(
+    point_layers=None,
+    region_layers=None,
+    density_function=None,
+    density_color="#1f77b4", # blue from tab10
+    density_alpha=1,
+    resolution=1000,
+    confine_region_in_simplex=False,
+    show_legend=True,
+    save_path=None,
+):
+    fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(6, 6))
+
+    if density_function is not None:
+        plot_density(
+            ax,
+            density_function,
+            resolution,
+            density_color,
+            density_alpha,
+        )
+
+    if region_layers:
+        plot_regions(ax, region_layers, resolution, confine_region_in_simplex)
+
+    if point_layers:
+        plot_points(ax, point_layers)
+
+    # simplex edges
+    triangle = np.array([[0,0],[1,0],[0.5,np.sqrt(3)/2],[0,0]])
+    ax.plot(triangle[:,0], triangle[:,1], color="black")
+
+    # labels
+    ax.text(-0.05, -0.05, "Y=1", ha="right", va="top")
+    ax.text(1.05, -0.05, "Y=2", ha="left", va="top")
+    ax.text(0.5, np.sqrt(3)/2 + 0.05, "Y=3", ha="center", va="bottom")
+
+    ax.set_aspect("equal")
+    ax.axis("off")
+
+    if show_legend:
+        ax.legend(loc="center left", bbox_to_anchor=(1.05, 0.5))
+
+    plt.tight_layout()
+    if save_path:
+        os.makedirs(Path(save_path).parent, exist_ok=True)
+        plt.savefig(save_path, bbox_inches="tight")
+    else:
+        plt.show()
+
+
+def gaussian_kernel(p, mu=np.array([0.6, 0.2, 0.2]), sigma=0.5):
+    return np.exp(-np.sum((p - mu) ** 2) / (2 * sigma ** 2))
+
+
+def plot_kernels():
+    from quapy.method._kdey import KDEBase
+
+    kernel = 'aitchison'
+
+    def kernel(p, center, bandwidth=0.1, kernel='gaussian', within_simplex=False):
+        assert within_simplex or kernel == 'gaussian', f'cannot compute {kernel=} outside the simplex'
+        X = np.asarray(center).reshape(-1, 3)
+        p = np.asarray(p).reshape(-1, 3)
+        KDE = KDEBase()
+        kde = KDE.get_kde_function(X, bandwidth=bandwidth, kernel=kernel)
+
+        if within_simplex:
+            density = np.zeros(shape=p.shape[0])
+            p_mask = in_simplex(p)
+            density_vals = KDE.pdf(kde, p[p_mask], kernel=kernel)
+            density[p_mask] = density_vals
+        else:
+            density = KDE.pdf(kde, p, kernel=kernel)
+        return density
+
+    plt.rcParams.update({
+        'font.size': 15,
+        'axes.titlesize': 12,
+        'axes.labelsize': 10,
+        'xtick.labelsize': 8,
+        'ytick.labelsize': 8,
+        'legend.fontsize': 9,
+    })
+
+    dot_style = {"color": "red", "alpha": 1, "s": 100, 'linewidth': 1.5, 'edgecolors': "white"}
+    # center = np.asarray([[0.05, 0.03, 0.92],[0.5, 0.4, 0.1]])
+    center = np.asarray([0.33, 0.33, 0.34])
+    point_layer = [
+        {"points": center, "label": "kernels", "style": dot_style},
+    ]
+    density_fn = lambda p: kernel(p, center, bandwidth=0.2, kernel='gaussian', within_simplex=False)
+    plot_simplex(point_layers=point_layer, density_function=density_fn, show_legend=False,
+                 save_path='./plots/kernels/gaussian_center.png')
+
+    density_fn = lambda p: kernel(p, center, bandwidth=.6, kernel='aitchison', within_simplex=True)
+    plot_simplex(point_layers=point_layer, density_function=density_fn, show_legend=False,
+                 save_path='./plots/kernels/aitchison_center.png')
+
+    center = np.asarray([0.05, 0.05, 0.9])
+    point_layer[0]['points'] = center
+    density_fn = lambda p: kernel(p, center, bandwidth=0.2, kernel='gaussian', within_simplex=False)
+    plot_simplex(point_layers=point_layer, density_function=density_fn, show_legend=False,
+                 save_path='./plots/kernels/gaussian_vertex_005_005_09.png')
+
+    density_fn = lambda p: kernel(p, center, bandwidth=1, kernel='aitchison', within_simplex=True)
+    plot_simplex(point_layers=point_layer, density_function=density_fn, show_legend=False,
+                 save_path='./plots/kernels/aitchison_vertex_005_005_09.png')
+
+    center = np.asarray([0.45, 0.45, 0.1])
+    point_layer[0]['points'] = center
+    density_fn = lambda p: kernel(p, center, bandwidth=0.2, kernel='gaussian', within_simplex=False)
+    plot_simplex(point_layers=point_layer, density_function=density_fn, show_legend=False,
+                 save_path='./plots/kernels/gaussian_border_045_045_01.png')
+
+    density_fn = lambda p: kernel(p, center, bandwidth=.7, kernel='aitchison', within_simplex=True)
+    plot_simplex(point_layers=point_layer, density_function=density_fn, show_legend=False,
+                 save_path='./plots/kernels/aitchison_border_045_045_01.png')
+
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+    np.random.seed(1)
+
+    n = 1000
+    alpha = [15,10,7]
+    prevs = np.random.dirichlet(alpha, size=n)
+
+    def regions():
+        confs = [0.9, 0.95, 0.99]
+        # yield 'CI', [(f'{int(c*100)}%', CI(prevs, confidence_level=c).coverage) for c in confs]
+        # yield 'CI-b', [(f'{int(c * 100)}%', CI(prevs, confidence_level=c, bonferroni_correction=True).coverage) for c in confs]
+        # yield 'CI-CLR', [(f'{int(c * 100)}%', CICLR(prevs, confidence_level=c).coverage) for c in confs]
+        # yield 'CI-CLR-b', [(f'{int(c * 100)}%', CICLR(prevs, confidence_level=c, bonferroni_correction=True).coverage) for c in confs]
+        # yield 'CI-ILR', [(f'{int(c * 100)}%', CIILR(prevs, confidence_level=c).coverage) for c in confs]
+        yield 'CI-ILR-b', [(f'{int(c * 100)}%', CIILR(prevs, confidence_level=c, bonferroni_correction=True).coverage) for c in confs]
+        # yield 'CE', [(f'{int(c*100)}%', CE(prevs, confidence_level=c).coverage) for c in confs]
+        # yield 'CE-CLR', [(f'{int(c*100)}%', CLR(prevs, confidence_level=c).coverage) for c in confs]
+        # yield 'CE-ILR', [(f'{int(c*100)}%', ILR(prevs, confidence_level=c).coverage) for c in confs]
+
+    resolution = 1000
+    alpha_str = ','.join([f'{str(i)}' for i in alpha])
+
+    dot_style = {"color": "gray", "alpha": .5, "s": 15, 'linewidth': .25, 'edgecolors': "black"}
+    point_layer = [
+        {"points": prevs, "label": "points", "style": dot_style},
+    ]
+
+    for crname, cr in regions():
+        region = [{'fn': fn, 'alpha':.6, 'label':label} for label, fn in cr]
+
+        plot_simplex(point_layers=point_layer, region_layers=region, show_legend=False, resolution=resolution, save_path=f'./plots/regions/{crname}.png')
+
+    # def regions():
+    #     confs = [0.99, 0.95, 0.90]
+    #     yield 'CI', [(f'{int(c*100)}%', CI(prevs, confidence_level=c).coverage) for c in confs]
+        # yield 'CI-b', [(f'{int(c * 100)}%', CI(prevs, confidence_level=c, bonferroni_correction=True).coverage) for c in confs]
+        # yield 'CE', [(f'{int(c*100)}%', CE(prevs, confidence_level=c).coverage) for c in confs]
+        # yield 'CLR', [(f'{int(c*100)}%', CLR(prevs, confidence_level=c).coverage) for c in confs]
+        # yield 'ILR', [(f'{int(c*100)}%', ILR(prevs, confidence_level=c).coverage) for c in confs]
+
+    # resolution = 100
+    # alpha_str = ','.join([f'{str(i)}' for i in alpha])
+    # region  = CI(prevs, confidence_level=.95, bonferroni_correction=True)
+    # p = None # np.asarray([0.1, 0.8, 0.1])
+    # plot_prev_points(prevs,
+    #                  show_samples=True,
+    #                  show_mean=None,
+    #                  # show_mean=prevs.mean(axis=0),
+    #                  show_legend=False,
+    #                  # region=[('', region.coverage)],
+    #                  # region_resolution=resolution,
+    #                  color='blue',
+    #                  true_prev=p,
+    #                  # train_prev=region.closest_point_in_region(p),
+    #                  save_path=f'./plots/prior_test/uniform.png',
+    #                  )
+
+    plt.rcParams.update({
+        'font.size': 10,
+        'axes.titlesize': 12,
+        'axes.labelsize': 10,
+        'xtick.labelsize': 8,
+        'ytick.labelsize': 8,
+        'legend.fontsize': 9,
+    })
+
+    n = 1000
+    train_style = {"color": "blue", "alpha": 0.5, "s":15, 'linewidth':0.5, 'edgecolors':None}
+    test_style = {"color": "red", "alpha": 0.5, "s": 15, 'linewidth': 0.5, 'edgecolors': None}
+
+
+    # train_prevs = np.random.dirichlet(alpha=[1, 1, 1], size=n)
+    # test_prevs = np.random.dirichlet(alpha=[1, 1, 1], size=n)
+    # plot_simplex(
+    #     point_layers=[
+    #         {"points": train_prevs, "label": "train", "style": train_style},
+    #         {"points": test_prevs, "label": "test", "style": test_style},
+    #     ],
+    #     save_path=f'./plots/prior_test/uniform.png'
+    # )
+    #
+    # alpha = [40, 10, 10]
+    # train_prevs = np.random.dirichlet(alpha=alpha, size=n)
+    # test_prevs = np.random.dirichlet(alpha=alpha, size=n)
+    # plot_simplex(
+    #     point_layers=[
+    #         {"points": train_prevs, "label": "train", "style": train_style},
+    #         {"points": test_prevs, "label": "test", "style": test_style},
+    #     ],
+    #     save_path=f'./plots/prior_test/informative.png'
+    # )
+
+    # train_prevs = np.random.dirichlet(alpha=[8, 1, 1], size=n)
+    # test_prevs = np.random.dirichlet(alpha=[1, 8, 1], size=n)
+    # plot_simplex(
+    #     point_layers=[
+    #         {"points": train_prevs, "label": "train", "style": train_style},
+    #         {"points": test_prevs, "label": "test", "style": test_style},
+    #     ],
+    #     save_path=f'./plots/prior_test/wrong.png'
+    # )
+
+    # p = 0.6
+    #
+    # K = 3
+    # # alpha = [p] + [(1. - p) / (K - 1)] * (K - 1)
+    # alpha = [0.095, 0.246, 0.658]  # connect-4
+    # alpha = np.array(alpha)
+    #
+    #
+    # for c in [50, 500, 5_000]:
+    #     alpha_tr = alpha * c
+    #     alpha_te = antagonistic_prevalence(alpha, strength=1) * c
+    #     train_prevs = np.random.dirichlet(alpha=alpha_tr, size=n)
+    #     test_prevs = np.random.dirichlet(alpha=alpha_te, size=n)
+    #     plot_simplex(
+    #         point_layers=[
+    #             {"points": train_prevs, "label": "train", "style": train_style},
+    #             {"points": test_prevs, "label": "test", "style": test_style},
+    #         ],
+    #         save_path=f'./plots/prior_test/concentration_{c}.png'
+    #     )
+
+    # plot_kernels()

BayesianKDEy/prior_effect.py

@@ -0,0 +1,297 @@
+from collections import defaultdict
+import pandas as pd
+
+import model_selection
+import quapy as qp
+from BayesianKDEy._bayeisan_kdey import BayesianKDEy
+from BayesianKDEy.temperature_calibration import temp_calibration
+from commons import *
+from data import Dataset
+from protocol import DirichletProtocol
+from quapy.method.confidence import BayesianCC
+from quapy.method.aggregative import ACC, AggregativeQuantifier
+from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression as LR
+from copy import deepcopy as cp
+from tqdm import tqdm
+from full_experiments import model_selection
+from itertools import chain
+
+
+def select_imbalanced_datasets(top_m=10):
+    datasets_prevs = []
+    # choose top-m imbalanced datasets
+    for data_name in multiclass['datasets']:
+        data_prev = multiclass['fetch_fn'](data_name).training.prevalence()
+        balance = normalized_entropy(data_prev)
+        datasets_prevs.append((data_name, balance))
+    datasets_prevs.sort(key=lambda x: x[1])
+    data_selected = [data_name for data_name, balance in datasets_prevs[:top_m]]
+    return data_selected
+
+
+def methods():
+    acc_hyper = {}
+    kdey_hyper = {'bandwidth': [0.001, 0.005, 0.01, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2]}
+    kdey_hyper_clr = {'bandwidth': [0.05, 0.1, 0.5, 1., 2., 5.]}
+
+    yield 'BayesianACC', ACC(LR()), acc_hyper, lambda hyper: BayesianCC(LR(), mcmc_seed=0, prior='uniform')
+    yield f'BaKDE-Ait', KDEyCLR(LR()), kdey_hyper_clr, lambda hyper: BayesianKDEy(kernel='aitchison', mcmc_seed=0, engine='numpyro', temperature=None, prior='uniform', **hyper)
+    yield f'BaKDE-Ait-T2', KDEyCLR(LR()), kdey_hyper_clr, lambda hyper: BayesianKDEy(kernel='aitchison', mcmc_seed=0,
+                                                                                  engine='numpyro', temperature=2.,
+                                                                                  prior='uniform', **hyper)
+    yield f'BaKDE-Ait-T1', KDEyCLR(LR()), kdey_hyper_clr, lambda hyper: BayesianKDEy(kernel='aitchison', mcmc_seed=0,
+                                                                                  engine='numpyro', temperature=1.,
+                                                                                  prior='uniform', **hyper)
+
+
+def run_test(test, alpha_test, alpha_train, concentration, prior_type, bay_quant, train_prev, dataset_name, method_name, results):
+    test_generator = DirichletProtocol(test, alpha=alpha_test, repeats=100, random_state=0)
+    for i, (sample_X, true_prev) in tqdm(enumerate(test_generator()), total=test_generator.total(),
+                                               desc=f'{method_name} {prior_type} alpha with {concentration=}'):
+        estim_prev, region = bay_quant.predict_conf(sample_X)
+
+        results['dataset'].append(dataset_name)
+        results['method_name'].append(method_name)
+        results['prior-type'].append(prior_type)
+        results['train-prev'].append(train_prev)
+        results['concentration'].append(concentration)
+        results['train-alpha'].append(alpha_train)
+        results['test-alpha'].append(alpha_test)
+        results['true-prevs'].append(true_prev)
+        results['point-estim'].append(estim_prev)
+        results['shift'].append(qp.error.ae(true_prev, train_prev))
+        results['ae'].append(qp.error.ae(prevs_true=true_prev, prevs_hat=estim_prev))
+        results['sre'].append(qp.error.sre(prevs_true=true_prev, prevs_hat=estim_prev, prevs_train=train_prev))
+        results['rae'].append(qp.error.rae(prevs_true=true_prev, prevs_hat=estim_prev))
+        results['coverage'].append(region.coverage(true_prev))
+        results['amplitude'].append(region.montecarlo_proportion(n_trials=50_000))
+        results['samples'].append(region.samples)
+
+
+
+def experiment(dataset: Dataset,
+               dataset_name: str,
+               point_quantifier: AggregativeQuantifier,
+               grid: dict,
+               bay_constructor,
+               method_name:str,
+               hyper_choice_path: Path):
+
+    with qp.util.temp_seed(0):
+
+        training, test = dataset.train_test
+
+        # model selection
+        best_hyperparams = qp.util.pickled_resource(
+            hyper_choice_path, model_selection, training, cp(point_quantifier), grid
+        )
+
+        bay_quant = bay_constructor(best_hyperparams)
+        if hasattr(bay_quant, 'temperature') and bay_quant.temperature is None:
+            train, val = data.training.split_stratified(train_prop=0.6, random_state=0)
+            temperature = temp_calibration(bay_quant, train, val, temp_grid=[.5, 1., 1.5, 2., 5., 10., 100.], n_jobs=-1)
+            bay_quant.temperature = temperature
+        bay_quant.fit(*training.Xy)
+
+        # test
+        train_prev = training.prevalence()
+        results = defaultdict(list)
+
+        for concentration in [50, 500, 5_000]:
+            alpha_train = train_prev * concentration
+            bay_quant.prior = alpha_train
+
+            # informative prior
+            alpha_test_informative = alpha_train
+            prior_type = 'informative'
+            run_test(test, alpha_test_informative, alpha_train, concentration, prior_type, bay_quant, train_prev, dataset_name, method_name, results)
+
+            # informative prior
+            alpha_test_wrong = antagonistic_prevalence(train_prev, strength=0.25) * concentration
+            prior_type = 'wrong'
+            run_test(test, alpha_test_wrong, alpha_train, concentration, prior_type, bay_quant, train_prev, dataset_name, method_name, results)
+
+        return results
+
+
+def concat_reports(reports):
+    final_report = {
+        k: list(chain.from_iterable(report[k] for report in reports))
+        for k in reports[0]
+    }
+    df = pd.DataFrame(final_report)
+    return df
+
+
+def error_vs_concentration_plot(df, err='ae', save_path=None):
+    import seaborn as sns
+    import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
+
+    sns.set_theme(style="whitegrid", context="paper")
+
+    fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(10, 4), sharey=True)
+
+    for ax, prior in zip(axes, ['informative', 'wrong']):
+        sub = df[df['prior-type'] == prior]
+
+        sns.lineplot(
+            data=sub,
+            x='concentration',
+            y=err,
+            hue='method_name',
+            marker='o',
+            errorbar='se',  # o 'sd'
+            ax=ax
+        )
+
+        ax.set_xscale('log')
+        ax.set_title(f'Prior: {prior}')
+        ax.set_xlabel('Concentration')
+        ax.set_ylabel('M'+err.upper())
+
+    plt.tight_layout()
+    if save_path is None:
+        plt.show()
+    else:
+        os.makedirs(Path(save_path).parent, exist_ok=True)
+        plt.savefig(save_path)
+
+
+def coverage_vs_concentration_plot(df, save_path=None):
+    import seaborn as sns
+    import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
+
+    fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(10, 4), sharey=True)
+
+    for ax, prior in zip(axes, ['informative', 'wrong']):
+        sub = df[df['prior-type'] == prior]
+
+        sns.lineplot(
+            data=sub,
+            x='concentration',
+            y='coverage',
+            hue='method_name',
+            marker='o',
+            errorbar='se',
+            ax=ax
+        )
+
+        ax.set_xscale('log')
+        ax.set_ylim(0, 1.05)
+        ax.set_title(f'Prior: {prior}')
+        ax.set_xlabel('Concentration')
+        ax.set_ylabel('Coverage')
+
+    plt.tight_layout()
+    if save_path is None:
+        plt.show()
+    else:
+        os.makedirs(Path(save_path).parent, exist_ok=True)
+        plt.savefig(save_path)
+
+
+def amplitude_vs_concentration_plot(df, save_path=None):
+    import seaborn as sns
+    import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
+
+    fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(10, 4), sharey=True)
+
+    for ax, prior in zip(axes, ['informative', 'wrong']):
+        sub = df[df['prior-type'] == prior]
+
+        sns.lineplot(
+            data=sub,
+            x='concentration',
+            y='amplitude',
+            hue='method_name',
+            marker='o',
+            errorbar='se',
+            ax=ax
+        )
+
+        ax.set_xscale('log')
+        ax.set_title(f'Prior: {prior}')
+        ax.set_xlabel('Concentration')
+        ax.set_ylabel('Amplitude')
+
+    plt.tight_layout()
+    if save_path is None:
+        plt.show()
+    else:
+        os.makedirs(Path(save_path).parent, exist_ok=True)
+        plt.savefig(save_path)
+
+
+def coverage_vs_amplitude_plot(df, save_path=None):
+    import seaborn as sns
+    import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
+
+    agg = (
+        df
+        .groupby(['prior-type', 'method_name', 'concentration'])
+        .agg(
+            coverage=('coverage', 'mean'),
+            amplitude=('amplitude', 'mean')
+        )
+        .reset_index()
+    )
+
+    fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(10, 4), sharey=True)
+
+    for ax, prior in zip(axes, ['informative', 'wrong']):
+        sub = agg[agg['prior-type'] == prior]
+
+        sns.scatterplot(
+            data=sub,
+            x='amplitude',
+            y='coverage',
+            hue='method_name',
+            style='concentration',
+            s=80,
+            ax=ax
+        )
+
+        ax.set_ylim(0, 1.05)
+        ax.set_title(f'Prior: {prior}')
+        ax.set_xlabel('Amplitude')
+        ax.set_ylabel('Coverage')
+        ax.axhline(0.95, linestyle='--', color='gray', alpha=0.7)
+
+    plt.tight_layout()
+    if save_path is None:
+        plt.show()
+    else:
+        os.makedirs(Path(save_path).parent, exist_ok=True)
+        plt.savefig(save_path)
+
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+    result_dir = Path('./results/prior_effect')
+    selected = select_imbalanced_datasets(10)
+    print(f'selected datasets={selected}')
+    qp.environ['SAMPLE_SIZE'] = multiclass['sample_size']
+    reports = []
+    for data_name in selected:
+        data = multiclass['fetch_fn'](data_name)
+        for method_name, surrogate_quant, hyper_params, bay_constructor in methods():
+            result_path = experiment_path(result_dir, data_name, method_name)
+            hyper_path = experiment_path(result_dir/'hyperparams', data_name, surrogate_quant.__class__.__name__)
+
+            print(f'Launching {method_name} in dataset {data_name}')
+            report = qp.util.pickled_resource(
+                result_path, experiment, data, data_name, surrogate_quant, hyper_params, bay_constructor, method_name, hyper_path
+            )
+            reports.append(report)
+
+    # concat all reports as a dataframe
+    df = concat_reports(reports)
+
+    # for data_name in selected:
+    #     print(data_name)
+    #     df_ = df[df['dataset']==data_name]
+    df_ = df
+    error_vs_concentration_plot(df_, save_path='./plots/prior_effect/error_vs_concentration.pdf')
+    coverage_vs_concentration_plot(df_, save_path='./plots/prior_effect/coverage_vs_concentration.pdf')
+    amplitude_vs_concentration_plot(df_, save_path='./plots/prior_effect/amplitude_vs_concentration.pdf')
+    coverage_vs_amplitude_plot(df_, save_path='./plots/prior_effect/coverage_vs_amplitude.pdf')
+

BayesianKDEy/quick_experiment_bayesian_kdey.py

@@ -0,0 +1,56 @@
+import warnings
+
+from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression
+import quapy as qp
+from BayesianKDEy._bayeisan_kdey import BayesianKDEy
+from BayesianKDEy.plot_simplex import plot_prev_points, plot_prev_points_matplot
+from method.confidence import ConfidenceIntervals
+from quapy.functional import strprev
+from quapy.method.aggregative import KDEyML
+from quapy.protocol import UPP
+import quapy.functional as F
+import numpy as np
+from tqdm import tqdm
+from scipy.stats import dirichlet
+
+
+
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+    qp.environ["SAMPLE_SIZE"] = 500
+    cls = LogisticRegression()
+    bayes_kdey = BayesianKDEy(cls, bandwidth=.3, kernel='aitchison', mcmc_seed=0)
+
+    datasets = qp.datasets.UCI_BINARY_DATASETS
+    train, test = qp.datasets.fetch_UCIBinaryDataset(datasets[0]).train_test
+
+    # train, test = qp.datasets.fetch_UCIMulticlassDataset('academic-success', standardize=True).train_test
+
+    with qp.util.temp_seed(0):
+        print('fitting KDEy')
+        bayes_kdey.fit(*train.Xy)
+
+        shifted = test.sampling(500, *[0.2, 0.8])
+        # shifted = test.sampling(500, *test.prevalence()[::-1])
+        # shifted = test.sampling(500, *F.uniform_prevalence_sampling(train.n_classes))
+        prev_hat = bayes_kdey.predict(shifted.X)
+        mae = qp.error.mae(shifted.prevalence(), prev_hat)
+        print(f'true_prev={strprev(shifted.prevalence())}')
+        print(f'prev_hat={strprev(prev_hat)}, {mae=:.4f}')
+
+        prev_hat, conf_interval = bayes_kdey.predict_conf(shifted.X)
+
+        mae = qp.error.mae(shifted.prevalence(), prev_hat)
+        print(f'mean posterior {strprev(prev_hat)}, {mae=:.4f}')
+        print(f'CI={conf_interval}')
+        print(f'\tcontains true={conf_interval.coverage(true_value=shifted.prevalence())==1}')
+        print(f'\tamplitude={conf_interval.montecarlo_proportion(50_000)*100.:.3f}%')
+
+        if train.n_classes == 3:
+            plot_prev_points(bayes_kdey.prevalence_samples, true_prev=shifted.prevalence(), point_estim=prev_hat, train_prev=train.prevalence())
+            # plot_prev_points_matplot(samples)
+
+        # report = qp.evaluation.evaluation_report(kdey, protocol=UPP(test), verbose=True)
+        # print(report.mean(numeric_only=True))
+
+

BayesianKDEy/single_experiment_debug.py

@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+import os
+import pickle
+import warnings
+from os.path import join
+from pathlib import Path
+
+from sklearn.calibration import CalibratedClassifierCV
+from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression as LR
+from sklearn.model_selection import GridSearchCV, StratifiedKFold
+from copy import deepcopy as cp
+import quapy as qp
+from BayesianKDEy._bayeisan_kdey import BayesianKDEy
+from BayesianKDEy.full_experiments import experiment
+from BayesianKDEy.commons import experiment_path, KDEyCLR
+from build.lib.quapy.data import LabelledCollection
+from quapy.method.aggregative import DistributionMatchingY as DMy, AggregativeQuantifier
+from quapy.method.base import BinaryQuantifier, BaseQuantifier
+from quapy.model_selection import GridSearchQ
+from quapy.data import Dataset
+# from BayesianKDEy.plot_simplex import plot_prev_points, plot_prev_points_matplot
+from quapy.method.confidence import ConfidenceIntervals, BayesianCC, PQ, WithConfidenceABC, AggregativeBootstrap
+from quapy.functional import strprev
+from quapy.method.aggregative import KDEyML, ACC
+from quapy.protocol import UPP
+import quapy.functional as F
+import numpy as np
+from tqdm import tqdm
+from scipy.stats import dirichlet
+from collections import defaultdict
+from time import time
+from sklearn.base import clone, BaseEstimator
+from temperature_calibration import temp_calibration
+
+def methods():
+    """
+    Returns a tuple (name, quantifier, hyperparams, bayesian/bootstrap_constructor), where:
+    - name: is a str representing the name of the method (e.g., 'BayesianKDEy')
+    - quantifier: is the base model (e.g., KDEyML())
+    - hyperparams: is a dictionary for the quantifier (e.g., {'bandwidth': [0.001, 0.005, 0.01, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2]})
+    - bayesian/bootstrap_constructor: is a function that instantiates the bayesian o bootstrap method with the
+        quantifier with optimized hyperparameters
+    """
+    acc_hyper = {}
+    hdy_hyper = {'nbins': [3,4,5,8,16,32]}
+    kdey_hyper = {'bandwidth': [0.001, 0.005, 0.01, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2]}
+    kdey_hyper_clr = {'bandwidth': [0.05, 0.1, 0.5, 1., 2., 5.]}
+
+    wrap_hyper = lambda dic: {f'quantifier__{k}':v for k,v in dic.items()}
+
+    # yield 'BootstrapKDEy', KDEyML(LR()), kdey_hyper, lambda hyper: AggregativeBootstrap(KDEyML(LR(), **hyper), n_test_samples=1000, random_state=0, verbose=True),
+    # yield 'BayesianKDEy', KDEyML(LR()), kdey_hyper, lambda hyper: BayesianKDEy(mcmc_seed=0, **hyper),
+    # for T in [10, 20, 50, 100., 500]:
+    #     yield f'BaKDE-CLR-T{T}', KDEyCLR(LR()), kdey_hyper_clr, lambda hyper: BayesianKDEy(kernel='aitchison', explore='ilr', mcmc_seed=0, temperature=T, num_warmup=3000, num_samples=1000, step_size=.1, **hyper),
+
+    # yield f'BaKDE-emcee', KDEyML(LR()), kdey_hyper, lambda hyper: BayesianKDEy(mcmc_seed=0, num_warmup=100, num_samples=100, step_size=.1, **hyper),
+    yield f'BaKDE-numpyro', KDEyML(LR()), kdey_hyper, lambda hyper: BayesianKDEy(mcmc_seed=0, engine='numpyro', **hyper)
+
+
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+
+    binary = {
+        'fetch_fn': qp.datasets.fetch_UCIBinaryDataset,
+        'sample_size': 500
+    }
+
+    multiclass = {
+        'fetch_fn': qp.datasets.fetch_UCIMulticlassDataset,
+        'sample_size': 1000
+    }
+
+    setup = multiclass
+    # data_name = 'isolet'
+    # data_name = 'academic-success'
+    data_name = 'poker_hand'
+
+    qp.environ['SAMPLE_SIZE'] = setup['sample_size']
+    print(f'dataset={data_name}')
+    data = setup['fetch_fn'](data_name)
+    is_binary = data.n_classes==2
+    hyper_subdir  = Path('./results') / 'hyperparams' / ('binary' if is_binary else 'multiclass')
+    for method_name, method, hyper_params, withconf_constructor in methods():
+        hyper_path = experiment_path(hyper_subdir, data_name, method.__class__.__name__)
+        report = experiment(data, method, method_name, hyper_params, withconf_constructor, hyper_path)
+
+        print(f'dataset={data_name}, '
+              f'method={method_name}: '
+              f'mae={report["results"]["ae"].mean():.3f}, '
+              f'coverage={report["results"]["coverage"].mean():.5f}, '
+              f'amplitude={report["results"]["amplitude"].mean():.5f}, ')
+
+        # best_hyperparams = pickle.load(open(hyper_path, 'rb'))
+        # method = withconf_constructor(best_hyperparams)
+        #
+        # train, val = data.training.split_stratified(train_prop=0.6, random_state=0)
+        # temp_calibration(method, train, val, amplitude_threshold=0.1475, temp_grid=[2., 10., 100., 1000.])#temp_grid=[1., 1.25, 1.5, 1.75, 2.])
+
+
+

BayesianKDEy/temperature_bandwidth_corr.py

@@ -0,0 +1,129 @@
+import os.path
+import pickle
+from collections import defaultdict
+from pathlib import Path
+import pandas as pd
+import quapy as qp
+from BayesianKDEy._bayeisan_kdey import BayesianKDEy
+from BayesianKDEy.commons import experiment_path
+from quapy.protocol import UPP
+import numpy as np
+from tqdm import tqdm
+from joblib import Parallel, delayed
+from itertools import product
+
+# is there a correspondence between smaller bandwidths and overconfident likelihoods? if so, a high temperature
+# after calibration might be correlated; this script aims at analyzing this trend
+
+datasets = qp.datasets.UCI_MULTICLASS_DATASETS
+
+def show(results, values):
+    df_res = pd.DataFrame(results)
+    df_mean = (
+        df_res
+        .groupby(['bandwidth', 'temperature'], as_index=False)
+        .mean(numeric_only=True)
+    )
+    pivot = df_mean.pivot(
+        index='bandwidth',
+        columns='temperature',
+        values=values
+    )
+    import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
+
+
+    plt.imshow(pivot, origin='lower', aspect='auto')
+    plt.colorbar(label=values)
+
+    plt.xticks(range(len(pivot.columns)), pivot.columns)
+    plt.yticks(range(len(pivot.index)), pivot.index)
+
+    plt.xlabel('Temperature')
+    plt.ylabel('Bandwidth')
+    plt.title(f'{values} heatmap')
+
+    plt.savefig(f'./plotcorr/{values}.png')
+    plt.cla()
+    plt.clf()
+
+def run_experiment(
+    bandwidth,
+    temperature,
+    train,
+    test,
+    dataset,
+):
+    qp.environ['SAMPLE_SIZE'] = 1000
+    bakde = BayesianKDEy(
+        engine='numpyro',
+        bandwidth=bandwidth,
+        temperature=temperature,
+    )
+    bakde.fit(*train.Xy)
+
+    test_generator = UPP(test, repeats=20, random_state=0)
+
+    rows = []
+
+    for i, (sample, prev) in enumerate(
+        tqdm(
+            test_generator(),
+            desc=f"bw={bandwidth}, T={temperature}",
+            total=test_generator.total(),
+            leave=False,
+        )
+    ):
+        point_estimate, region = bakde.predict_conf(sample)
+
+        rows.append({
+            "bandwidth": bandwidth,
+            "temperature": temperature,
+            "dataset": dataset,
+            "sample": i,
+            "mae": qp.error.mae(prev, point_estimate),
+            "cov": region.coverage(prev),
+            "amp": region.montecarlo_proportion(n_trials=50_000),
+        })
+
+    return rows
+
+
+bandwidths = [0.001, 0.005, 0.01, 0.05, 0.1]
+temperatures = [0.5, 0.75, 1., 2., 5.]
+
+res_dir = './plotcorr/results'
+os.makedirs(res_dir, exist_ok=True)
+
+all_rows = []
+for i, dataset in enumerate(datasets):
+    if dataset in ['letter', 'isolet']: continue
+    res_path = f'{res_dir}/{dataset}.pkl'
+    if os.path.exists(res_path):
+        print(f'loading results from pickle {res_path}')
+        results_data_rows = pickle.load(open(res_path, 'rb'))
+    else:
+        print(f'{dataset=} [complete={i}/{len(datasets)}]')
+        data = qp.datasets.fetch_UCIMulticlassDataset(dataset)
+        train, test = data.train_test
+        jobs = list(product(bandwidths, temperatures))
+        results_data_rows = Parallel(n_jobs=-1,backend="loky")(
+            delayed(run_experiment)(bw, T, train, test, dataset) for bw, T in jobs
+        )
+        pickle.dump(results_data_rows, open(res_path, 'wb'), pickle.HIGHEST_PROTOCOL)
+    all_rows.extend(results_data_rows)
+
+results = defaultdict(list)
+for rows in all_rows:
+    for row in rows:
+        for k, v in row.items():
+            results[k].append(v)
+
+show(results, 'mae')
+show(results, 'cov')
+show(results, 'amp')
+
+
+
+
+
+

BayesianKDEy/temperature_calibration.py

@@ -0,0 +1,116 @@
+from build.lib.quapy.data import LabelledCollection
+from quapy.method.confidence import WithConfidenceABC
+from quapy.protocol import AbstractProtocol
+import numpy as np
+from tqdm import tqdm
+import quapy as qp
+from joblib import Parallel, delayed
+import copy
+
+
+def temp_calibration(method:WithConfidenceABC,
+                     train:LabelledCollection,
+                     val_prot:AbstractProtocol,
+                     temp_grid=[.5, 1., 1.5, 2., 5., 10., 100.],
+                     nominal_coverage=0.95,
+                     amplitude_threshold=1.,
+                     criterion='winkler',
+                     n_jobs=1,
+                     verbose=True):
+
+    assert (amplitude_threshold == 'auto' or (isinstance(amplitude_threshold, float)) and amplitude_threshold <= 1.), \
+        f'wrong value for {amplitude_threshold=}, it must either be "auto" or a float <= 1.0.'
+    assert criterion in {'auto', 'winkler'}, f'unknown {criterion=}; valid ones are auto or winkler'
+
+    if amplitude_threshold=='auto':
+        n_classes = train.n_classes
+        amplitude_threshold = .1/np.log(n_classes+1)
+
+    if isinstance(amplitude_threshold, float) and amplitude_threshold > 0.1:
+        print(f'warning: the {amplitude_threshold=} is too large; this may lead to uninformative regions')
+
+    def _evaluate_temperature_job(job_id, temp):
+        # if verbose:
+        #     print(f'\tstarting exploration with temperature={temp}...')
+
+        local_method = copy.deepcopy(method)
+        local_method.temperature = temp
+
+        coverage = 0
+        amplitudes = []
+        winklers = []
+        # errs = []
+
+        pbar = tqdm(enumerate(val_prot()), position=job_id, total=val_prot.total(), disable=not verbose)
+
+        for i, (sample, prev) in pbar:
+            point_estim, conf_region = local_method.predict_conf(sample)
+
+            if prev in conf_region:
+                coverage += 1
+
+            amplitudes.append(conf_region.montecarlo_proportion(n_trials=50_000))
+            winkler = None
+            if criterion=='winkler':
+                winkler = conf_region.mean_winkler_score(true_prev=prev, alpha=0.005)
+            winklers.append(winkler)
+
+            # errs.append(qp.error.mae(prev, point_estim))
+            pbar.set_description(
+                f'job={job_id} T={temp}: '
+                f'coverage={coverage/(i+1)*100:.2f}% '
+                f'amplitude={np.mean(amplitudes)*100:.4f}% '
+                + f'winkler={np.mean(winklers):.4f}%' if criterion=='winkler' else ''
+            )
+
+        mean_coverage = coverage / val_prot.total()
+        mean_amplitude = np.mean(amplitudes)
+        winkler_mean = np.mean(winklers) if criterion=='winkler' else None
+
+        # if verbose:
+        #     print(
+        #         f'Temperature={temp} got '
+        #         f'coverage={mean_coverage*100:.2f}% '
+        #         f'amplitude={mean_amplitude*100:.2f}% '
+        #         + f'winkler={winkler_mean:.4f}' if criterion == 'winkler' else ''
+        #     )
+
+        return temp, mean_coverage, mean_amplitude, winkler_mean
+
+    temp_grid = sorted(temp_grid)
+    method.fit(*train.Xy)
+
+    raw_results = Parallel(n_jobs=n_jobs, backend="loky")(
+        delayed(_evaluate_temperature_job)(job_id, temp)
+        for job_id, temp in tqdm(enumerate(temp_grid), disable=not verbose)
+    )
+    results = [
+        (temp, cov, amp, wink)
+        for temp, cov, amp, wink in raw_results
+        if amp < amplitude_threshold
+    ]
+
+    chosen_temperature = 1.
+    if len(results) > 0:
+        if criterion=='winkler':
+            # choose min winkler
+            chosen_temperature, ccov, camp, cwink = min(results, key=lambda x: x[3])
+        else:
+            # choose best coverage (regardless of amplitude), i.e., closest to nominal
+            chosen_temperature, ccov, camp, cwink = min(results, key=lambda x: abs(x[1]-nominal_coverage))
+
+    if verbose:
+        print(
+            f'\nChosen_temperature={chosen_temperature:.2f} got '
+            f'coverage={ccov*100:.2f}% '
+            f'amplitude={camp*100:.4f}% '
+            + f'winkler={cwink:.4f}' if criterion=='winkler' else ''
+        )
+
+    return chosen_temperature
+
+
+
+
+
+

CHANGE_LOG.txt

@@ -1,3 +1,22 @@
+Change Log 0.2.1
+-----------------
+
+- Added mechanisms for Temperature Calibration for coverage
+- Added MAPLS and BayesianEMQ
+- Added DirichletProtocol, which allows to generate samples according to a parameterized Dirichlet prior.
+- Improved efficiency of confidence regions coverage functions
+- Added Precise Quantifier to WithConfidence methods (a Bayesian adaptation of HDy)
+- Added Temperature parameter to BayesianCC
+- Improved documentation of confidence regions.
+- Added ReadMe method by Daniel Hopkins and Gary King
+- Internal index in LabelledCollection is now "lazy", and is only constructed if required.
+- Added new error metrics:
+    - dist_aitchison and mean_dist_aitchison as a new error evaluation metric.
+    - squared ratio error.
+- Improved numerical stability of KDEyML through logsumexp; useful for cases with large number of classes, where
+    densities for small bandwidths may become huge.
+
+
 Change Log 0.2.0
 -----------------
 

KDEyAitchison/commons.py

@@ -0,0 +1,56 @@
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+from quapy.method.aggregative import EMQ, KDEyML, PACC
+from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression
+
+METHODS = ['PACC',
+           'EMQ',
+           'KDEy-ML',
+           'KDEy-MLA'
+           ]
+
+
+# common hyperparameterss
+hyper_LR = {
+    'classifier__C': np.logspace(-3, 3, 7),
+    'classifier__class_weight': ['balanced', None]
+}
+
+hyper_kde = {
+    'bandwidth': np.linspace(0.001, 0.5, 100)
+}
+
+hyper_kde_aitchison = {
+    'bandwidth': np.linspace(0.01, 2, 100)
+}
+
+# instances a new quantifier based on a string name
+def new_method(method, **lr_kwargs):
+    lr = LogisticRegression(**lr_kwargs)
+
+    if method == 'KDEy-ML':
+        param_grid = {**hyper_kde, **hyper_LR}
+        quantifier = KDEyML(lr, kernel='gaussian')
+    elif method == 'KDEy-MLA':
+        param_grid = {**hyper_kde_aitchison, **hyper_LR}
+        quantifier = KDEyML(lr, kernel='aitchison')
+    elif method == 'EMQ':
+        param_grid = hyper_LR
+        quantifier = EMQ(lr)
+    elif method == 'PACC':
+        param_grid = hyper_LR
+        quantifier = PACC(lr)
+    else:
+        raise NotImplementedError('unknown method', method)
+
+    return param_grid, quantifier
+
+
+def show_results(result_path):
+    df = pd.read_csv(result_path+'.csv', sep='\t')
+
+    pd.set_option('display.max_columns', None)
+    pd.set_option('display.max_rows', None)
+    pv = df.pivot_table(index='Dataset', columns="Method", values=["MAE", "MRAE"])
+    print(pv)

KDEyAitchison/show_results.py

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+import pickle
+import os
+import sys
+
+import pandas as pd
+
+import quapy as qp
+from quapy.model_selection import GridSearchQ
+from quapy.protocol import UPP
+from commons import METHODS, new_method, show_results
+from new_table import LatexTable
+
+
+SEED = 1
+
+
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+    print(qp.datasets.UCI_MULTICLASS_DATASETS)
+    for optim in ['mae', 'mrae']:
+        table = LatexTable()
+        result_dir = f'results/ucimulti/{optim}'
+
+        for method in METHODS:
+            print()
+            global_result_path = f'{result_dir}/{method}'
+            print(f'Method\tDataset\tMAE\tMRAE\tKLD')
+            for dataset in qp.datasets.UCI_MULTICLASS_DATASETS:
+                # print(dataset)
+                local_result_path = global_result_path + '_' + dataset
+                if os.path.exists(local_result_path + '.dataframe'):
+                    report = pd.read_csv(local_result_path+'.dataframe')
+                    print(f'{method}\t{dataset}\t{report[optim].mean():.5f}')
+                    table.add(benchmark=dataset, method=method, v=report[optim].values)
+                else:
+                    print(dataset, 'not found for method', method)
+        table.latexPDF(f'./tables/{optim}.pdf', landscape=False)
+

KDEyAitchison/ucimulti_experiments.py

@@ -0,0 +1,94 @@
+import pickle
+import os
+import sys
+
+import pandas as pd
+
+import quapy as qp
+from quapy.model_selection import GridSearchQ
+from quapy.protocol import UPP
+from commons import METHODS, new_method, show_results
+
+
+SEED = 1
+
+
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+
+    qp.environ['SAMPLE_SIZE'] = 500
+    qp.environ['N_JOBS'] = -1
+    n_bags_val = 250
+    n_bags_test = 1000
+    for optim in ['mae', 'mrae']:
+        result_dir = f'results/ucimulti/{optim}'
+
+        os.makedirs(result_dir, exist_ok=True)
+
+        for method in METHODS:
+
+            print('Init method', method)
+
+            global_result_path = f'{result_dir}/{method}'
+            # show_results(global_result_path)
+            # sys.exit(0)
+
+            if not os.path.exists(global_result_path + '.csv'):
+                with open(global_result_path + '.csv', 'wt') as csv:
+                    csv.write(f'Method\tDataset\tMAE\tMRAE\tKLD\n')
+
+            with open(global_result_path + '.csv', 'at') as csv:
+
+                for dataset in qp.datasets.UCI_MULTICLASS_DATASETS:
+
+                    print('init', dataset)
+
+                    local_result_path = global_result_path + '_' + dataset
+                    if os.path.exists(local_result_path + '.dataframe'):
+                        print(f'result file {local_result_path}.dataframe already exist; skipping')
+                        report = pd.read_csv(local_result_path+'.dataframe')
+                        print(report["mae"].mean())
+                        # data = qp.datasets.fetch_UCIMulticlassDataset(dataset)
+                        # csv.write(f'{method}\t{data.name}\t{report["mae"].mean():.5f}\t{report["mrae"].mean():.5f}\t{report["kld"].mean():.5f}\n')
+                        continue
+
+                    with qp.util.temp_seed(SEED):
+
+                        param_grid, quantifier = new_method(method, max_iter=3000)
+
+                        data = qp.datasets.fetch_UCIMulticlassDataset(dataset)
+
+                        # model selection
+                        train, test = data.train_test
+                        train, val = train.split_stratified(random_state=SEED)
+
+                        protocol = UPP(val, repeats=n_bags_val)
+                        modsel = GridSearchQ(
+                            quantifier, param_grid, protocol, refit=True, n_jobs=-1, verbose=True, error=optim
+                        )
+
+                        try:
+                            modsel.fit(*train.Xy)
+
+                            print(f'best params {modsel.best_params_}')
+                            print(f'best score {modsel.best_score_}')
+                            pickle.dump(
+                                (modsel.best_params_, modsel.best_score_,),
+                                open(f'{local_result_path}.hyper.pkl', 'wb'), pickle.HIGHEST_PROTOCOL)
+
+                            quantifier = modsel.best_model()
+                        except:
+                            print('something went wrong... trying to fit the default model')
+                            quantifier.fit(*train.Xy)
+
+
+                        protocol = UPP(test, repeats=n_bags_test)
+                        report = qp.evaluation.evaluation_report(
+                            quantifier, protocol, error_metrics=['mae', 'mrae', 'kld'], verbose=True
+                        )
+                        report.to_csv(f'{local_result_path}.dataframe')
+                        print(f'{method}\t{data.name}\t{report["mae"].mean():.5f}\t{report["mrae"].mean():.5f}\t{report["kld"].mean():.5f}\n')
+                        csv.write(f'{method}\t{data.name}\t{report["mae"].mean():.5f}\t{report["mrae"].mean():.5f}\t{report["kld"].mean():.5f}\n')
+                        csv.flush()
+
+        show_results(global_result_path)

TODO.txt

@@ -1,25 +1,75 @@
+Adapt examples; remaining: example 4-onwards
+not working: 15 (qunfold)
+
+Unify ConfidenceIntervalsTransformation with ConfidenceEllipseTransformation
+
+Unify functionality of withconfidence methods; the predict_conf has a clear similar structure across all 
+    variants, and should be unified in the super class
+
 Solve the warnings issue; right now there is a warning ignore in method/__init__.py:
 
 Add 'platt' to calib options in EMQ?
 
 Allow n_prevpoints in APP to be specified by a user-defined grid?
 
-Add the fix suggested by Alexander?
-"For a more general application, I would maybe first establish a per-class threshold value of plausible prevalence
+Update READMEs, wiki, & examples for new fit-predict interface
+
+Add the fix suggested by Alexander:
+
+For a more general application, I would maybe first establish a per-class threshold value of plausible prevalence
 based on the number of actual positives and the required sample size; e.g., for sample_size=100 and actual
 positives [10, 100, 500] -> [0.1, 1.0, 1.0], meaning that class 0 can be sampled at most at 0.1 prevalence, while
 the others can be sampled up to 1. prevalence. Then, when a prevalence value is requested, e.g., [0.33, 0.33, 0.33],
 we may either clip each value and normalize (as you suggest for the extreme case, e.g., [0.1, 0.33, 0.33]/sum) or
-scale each value by per-class thresholds, i.e., [0.33*0.1, 0.33*1, 0.33*1]/sum."
+scale each value by per-class thresholds, i.e., [0.33*0.1, 0.33*1, 0.33*1]/sum.
 - This affects LabelledCollection
 - This functionality should be accessible via sampling protocols and evaluation functions
 
+Solve the pre-trained classifier issues. An example is the coptic-codes script I did, which needed a mock_lr to
+work for having access to classes_; think also the case in which the precomputed outputs are already generated
+as in the unifying problems code.
+
+Para quitar el labelledcollection de los métodos:
+
+- El follón viene por la semántica confusa de fit en agregativos, que recibe 3 parámetros:
+    - data: LabelledCollection, que puede ser:
+        - el training set si hay que entrenar el clasificador
+        - None si no hay que entregar el clasificador
+        - el validation, que entra en conflicto con val_split, si no hay que entrenar clasificador
+    - fit_classifier: dice si hay que entrenar el clasificador o no, y estos cambia la semántica de los otros
+    - val_split: que puede ser:
+        - un número: el número de kfcv, lo cual implica fit_classifier=True y data=todo el training set
+        - una fración en [0,1]: que indica la parte que usamos para validation; implica fit_classifier=True y data=train+val
+        - un labelled collection: el conjunto de validación específico; no implica fit_classifier=True ni False
+- La forma de quitar la dependencia de los métodos con LabelledCollection debería ser así:
+    - En el constructor se dice si el clasificador que se recibe por parámetro hay que entrenarlo o ya está entrenado;
+        es decir, hay un fit_classifier=True o False.
+        - fit_classifier=True:
+            - data en fit es todo el training incluyendo el validation y todo
+            - val_split:
+                - int: número de folds en kfcv
+                - proporción en [0,1]
+        - fit_classifier=False:
+
+- [TODO] add RLSbench?:
+    - https://arxiv.org/pdf/2302.03020
+    - https://github.com/acmi-lab/RLSbench
+- [TODO] check Table shift
+    - https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper_files/paper/2023/hash/a76a757ed479a1e6a5f8134bea492f83-Abstract-Datasets_and_Benchmarks.html
+- [TODO] have a look at TorchDrift
+    - https://torchdrift.org/
+- [TODO] have a look at
+    - https://github.com/SeldonIO/alibi-detect/
+- [TODO] check if the KDEyML variant with sumlogexp is slower than the original one, or check whether we can explore
+    an unconstrained space in which the parameter is already the log(prev); maybe also move to cvxq
+- [TODO] why not simplifying the epsilon of RAE? at the end, it is meant to smooth the denominator for avoiding div 0
 - [TODO] document confidence in manuals
 - [TODO] Test the return_type="index" in protocols and finish the "distributing_samples.py" example
 - [TODO] Add EDy (an implementation is available at quantificationlib)
 - [TODO] add ensemble methods SC-MQ, MC-SQ, MC-MQ
 - [TODO] add HistNetQ
-- [TODO] add CDE-iteration and Bayes-CDE methods
+- [TODO] add CDE-iteration (https://github.com/Arctickirillas/Rubrication/blob/master/quantification.py#L593 or
+    Schumacher's code) and Bayes-CDE methods
 - [TODO] add Friedman's method and DeBias
 - [TODO] check ignore warning stuff
     check https://docs.python.org/3/library/warnings.html#temporarily-suppressing-warnings

docs/source/manuals/datasets.md

@@ -294,7 +294,7 @@ The datasets correspond to a part of the datasets that can be retrieved from the
 * containing at least 1,000 instances
 * can be imported using the Python API. 
 
-Some statistics about these datasets are displayed below :
+Some statistics about these datasets (after applying default filters) are displayed below :
 
 | **Dataset** | **classes** | **instances** | **features** | **prevs** | **type** |
 |:------------|:-----------:|:-------------:|:------------:|:----------|:--------:|

docs/source/manuals/methods.md

@@ -604,7 +604,10 @@ estim_prevalence = model.predict(dataset.test.X)
 
 _(New in v0.2.0!)_ Some quantification methods go beyond providing a single point estimate of class prevalence values and also produce confidence regions, which characterize the uncertainty around the point estimate. In QuaPy, two such methods are currently implemented:
 
-* Aggregative Bootstrap: The Aggregative Bootstrap method extends any aggregative quantifier by generating confidence regions for class prevalence estimates through bootstrapping. Key features of this method include:
+* Aggregative Bootstrap: The Aggregative Bootstrap method extends any aggregative quantifier by generating confidence regions for class prevalence estimates through bootstrapping. The method is described in the paper [Moreo, A., Salvati, N.
+    An Efficient Method for Deriving Confidence Intervals in Aggregative Quantification.
+    Learning to Quantify: Methods and Applications (LQ 2025), co-located at ECML-PKDD 2025.
+    pp 12-33, Porto (Portugal)](https://lq-2025.github.io/proceedings/CompleteVolume.pdf). Key features of this method include:
 
     * Optimized Computation: The bootstrap is applied to pre-classified instances, significantly speeding up training and inference.
 During training, bootstrap repetitions are performed only after training the classifier once. These repetitions are used to train multiple aggregation functions.

docs/source/quapy.method.rst

@@ -60,6 +60,14 @@ quapy.method.composable module
    :undoc-members:
    :show-inheritance:
 
+quapy.method.confidence module
+------------------------------
+
+.. automodule:: quapy.method.confidence
+   :members:
+   :undoc-members:
+   :show-inheritance:
+
 Module contents
 ---------------
 

examples/16.confidence_regions.py

@@ -36,7 +36,7 @@ with qp.util.temp_seed(0):
     true_prev = shifted_test.prevalence()
 
     # by calling "quantify_conf", we obtain the point estimate and the confidence intervals around it
-    pred_prev, conf_intervals = pacc.quantify_conf(shifted_test.X)
+    pred_prev, conf_intervals = pacc.predict_conf(shifted_test.X)
 
     # conf_intervals is an instance of ConfidenceRegionABC, which provides some useful utilities like:
     # - coverage: a function which computes the fraction of true values that belong to the confidence region

examples/18.ReadMe_for_text_analysis.py

@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+from sklearn.feature_extraction.text import CountVectorizer
+from sklearn.feature_selection import SelectKBest, chi2
+
+import quapy as qp
+from quapy.method.non_aggregative import ReadMe
+import quapy.functional as F
+from sklearn.pipeline import Pipeline
+
+"""
+This example showcases how to use the non-aggregative method ReadMe proposed by Hopkins and King.
+This method is for text analysis, so let us first instantiate a dataset for sentiment quantification (we
+use IMDb for this example). The method is quite computationally expensive, so we will restrict the training
+set to 1000 documents only.
+"""
+reviews = qp.datasets.fetch_reviews('imdb').reduce(n_train=1000, random_state=0)
+
+"""
+We need to convert text to bag-of-words representations. Actually, ReadMe requires the representations to be
+binary (i.e., storing a 1 whenever a document contains certain word, or 0 otherwise), so we will not use
+TFIDF weighting. We will also retain the top 1000 most important features according to chi2.
+"""
+encode_0_1 = Pipeline([
+    ('0_1_terms', CountVectorizer(min_df=5, binary=True)),
+    ('feat_sel',  SelectKBest(chi2, k=1000))
+])
+train, test = qp.data.preprocessing.instance_transformation(reviews, encode_0_1, inplace=True).train_test
+
+"""
+We now instantiate ReadMe, with the prob_model='full' (default behaviour, implementing the Hopkins and King original
+idea). This method consists of estimating Q(Y) by solving:
+
+Q(X) = \sum_i Q(X|Y=i) Q(Y=i)
+
+without resorting to estimating the posteriors Q(Y=i|X), by solving a linear least-squares problem.
+However, since Q(X) and Q(X|Y=i) are matrices of shape (2^K, 1) and (2^K, n), with K the number of features
+and n the number of classes, their calculation becomes intractable. ReadMe instead performs bagging (i.e., it
+samples small sets of features and averages the results) thus reducing K to a few terms. In our example we
+set K (bagging_range) to 20, and the number of bagging_trials to 100. 
+
+ReadMe also computes confidence intervals via bootstrap. We set the number of bootstrap trials to 100.  
+"""
+readme = ReadMe(prob_model='full', bootstrap_trials=100, bagging_trials=100, bagging_range=20, random_state=0, verbose=True)
+readme.fit(*train.Xy)   # <- there is actually nothing happening here (only bootstrap resampling); the method is "lazy"
+                        #    and postpones most of the calculations to the test phase.
+
+# since the method is slow, we will only test 3 cases with different imbalances
+few_negatives = [0.25, 0.75]
+balanced = [0.5, 0.5]
+few_positives = [0.75, 0.25]
+
+for test_prev in [few_negatives, balanced, few_positives]:
+    sample = reviews.test.sampling(500, *test_prev, random_state=0)  # draw sets of 500 documents with desired prevs
+    prev_estim, conf = readme.predict_conf(sample.X)
+    err = qp.error.mae(sample.prevalence(), prev_estim)
+    print(f'true-prevalence={F.strprev(sample.prevalence())},\n'
+          f'predicted-prevalence={F.strprev(prev_estim)}, with confidence intervals {conf},\n'
+          f'MAE={err:.4f}')
+
+
+

experimental_non_aggregative/custom_vectorizers.py

@@ -0,0 +1,254 @@
+from scipy.sparse import csc_matrix, csr_matrix
+from sklearn.base import BaseEstimator, TransformerMixin
+from sklearn.feature_extraction.text import TfidfTransformer, TfidfVectorizer, CountVectorizer
+import numpy as np
+from joblib import Parallel, delayed
+import sklearn
+import math
+from scipy.stats import t
+
+
+class ContTable:
+    def __init__(self, tp=0, tn=0, fp=0, fn=0):
+        self.tp=tp
+        self.tn=tn
+        self.fp=fp
+        self.fn=fn
+
+    def get_d(self): return self.tp + self.tn + self.fp + self.fn
+
+    def get_c(self): return self.tp + self.fn
+
+    def get_not_c(self): return self.tn + self.fp
+
+    def get_f(self): return self.tp + self.fp
+
+    def get_not_f(self): return self.tn + self.fn
+
+    def p_c(self): return (1.0*self.get_c())/self.get_d()
+
+    def p_not_c(self): return 1.0-self.p_c()
+
+    def p_f(self): return (1.0*self.get_f())/self.get_d()
+
+    def p_not_f(self): return 1.0-self.p_f()
+
+    def p_tp(self): return (1.0*self.tp) / self.get_d()
+
+    def p_tn(self): return (1.0*self.tn) / self.get_d()
+
+    def p_fp(self): return (1.0*self.fp) / self.get_d()
+
+    def p_fn(self): return (1.0*self.fn) / self.get_d()
+
+    def tpr(self):
+        c = 1.0*self.get_c()
+        return self.tp / c if c > 0.0 else 0.0
+
+    def fpr(self):
+        _c = 1.0*self.get_not_c()
+        return self.fp / _c if _c > 0.0 else 0.0
+
+
+def __ig_factor(p_tc, p_t, p_c):
+    den = p_t * p_c
+    if den != 0.0 and p_tc != 0:
+        return p_tc * math.log(p_tc / den, 2)
+    else:
+        return 0.0
+
+
+def information_gain(cell):
+    return __ig_factor(cell.p_tp(), cell.p_f(), cell.p_c()) + \
+           __ig_factor(cell.p_fp(), cell.p_f(), cell.p_not_c()) +\
+           __ig_factor(cell.p_fn(), cell.p_not_f(), cell.p_c()) + \
+           __ig_factor(cell.p_tn(), cell.p_not_f(), cell.p_not_c())
+
+
+def squared_information_gain(cell):
+    return information_gain(cell)**2
+
+
+def posneg_information_gain(cell):
+    ig = information_gain(cell)
+    if cell.tpr() < cell.fpr():
+        return -ig
+    else:
+        return ig
+
+
+def pos_information_gain(cell):
+    if cell.tpr() < cell.fpr():
+        return 0
+    else:
+        return information_gain(cell)
+
+def pointwise_mutual_information(cell):
+    return __ig_factor(cell.p_tp(), cell.p_f(), cell.p_c())
+
+
+def gss(cell):
+    return cell.p_tp()*cell.p_tn() - cell.p_fp()*cell.p_fn()
+
+
+def chi_square(cell):
+    den = cell.p_f() * cell.p_not_f() * cell.p_c() * cell.p_not_c()
+    if den==0.0: return 0.0
+    num = gss(cell)**2
+    return num / den
+
+
+def conf_interval(xt, n):
+    if n>30:
+        z2 = 3.84145882069 # norm.ppf(0.5+0.95/2.0)**2
+    else:
+        z2 = t.ppf(0.5 + 0.95 / 2.0, df=max(n-1,1)) ** 2
+    p = (xt + 0.5 * z2) / (n + z2)
+    amplitude = 0.5 * z2 * math.sqrt((p * (1.0 - p)) / (n + z2))
+    return p, amplitude
+
+
+def strength(minPosRelFreq, minPos, maxNeg):
+    if minPos > maxNeg:
+        return math.log(2.0 * minPosRelFreq, 2.0)
+    else:
+        return 0.0
+
+
+#set cancel_features=True to allow some features to be weighted as 0 (as in the original article)
+#however, for some extremely imbalanced dataset caused all documents to be 0
+def conf_weight(cell, cancel_features=False):
+    c = cell.get_c()
+    not_c = cell.get_not_c()
+    tp = cell.tp
+    fp = cell.fp
+
+    pos_p, pos_amp = conf_interval(tp, c)
+    neg_p, neg_amp = conf_interval(fp, not_c)
+
+    min_pos = pos_p-pos_amp
+    max_neg = neg_p+neg_amp
+    den = (min_pos + max_neg)
+    minpos_relfreq = min_pos / (den if den != 0 else 1)
+
+    str_tplus = strength(minpos_relfreq, min_pos, max_neg);
+
+    if str_tplus == 0 and not cancel_features:
+        return 1e-20
+
+    return str_tplus
+
+
+def get_tsr_matrix(cell_matrix, tsr_score_funtion):
+    nC = len(cell_matrix)
+    nF = len(cell_matrix[0])
+    tsr_matrix = [[tsr_score_funtion(cell_matrix[c,f]) for f in range(nF)] for c in range(nC)]
+    return np.array(tsr_matrix)
+
+
+def feature_label_contingency_table(positive_document_indexes, feature_document_indexes, nD):
+    tp_ = len(positive_document_indexes & feature_document_indexes)
+    fp_ = len(feature_document_indexes - positive_document_indexes)
+    fn_ = len(positive_document_indexes - feature_document_indexes)
+    tn_ = nD - (tp_ + fp_ + fn_)
+    return ContTable(tp=tp_, tn=tn_, fp=fp_, fn=fn_)
+
+
+def category_tables(feature_sets, category_sets, c, nD, nF):
+    return [feature_label_contingency_table(category_sets[c], feature_sets[f], nD) for f in range(nF)]
+
+
+def get_supervised_matrix(coocurrence_matrix, label_matrix, n_jobs=-1):
+    """
+    Computes the nC x nF supervised matrix M where Mcf is the 4-cell contingency table for feature f and class c.
+    Efficiency O(nF x nC x log(S)) where S is the sparse factor
+    """
+
+    nD, nF = coocurrence_matrix.shape
+    nD2, nC = label_matrix.shape
+
+    if nD != nD2:
+        raise ValueError('Number of rows in coocurrence matrix shape %s and label matrix shape %s is not consistent' %
+                         (coocurrence_matrix.shape,label_matrix.shape))
+
+    def nonzero_set(matrix, col):
+        return set(matrix[:, col].nonzero()[0])
+
+    if isinstance(coocurrence_matrix, csr_matrix):
+        coocurrence_matrix = csc_matrix(coocurrence_matrix)
+    feature_sets = [nonzero_set(coocurrence_matrix, f) for f in range(nF)]
+    category_sets = [nonzero_set(label_matrix, c) for c in range(nC)]
+    cell_matrix = Parallel(n_jobs=n_jobs, backend="threading")(
+        delayed(category_tables)(feature_sets, category_sets, c, nD, nF) for c in range(nC)
+    )
+    return np.array(cell_matrix)
+
+
+class TSRweighting(BaseEstimator,TransformerMixin):
+    """
+    Supervised Term Weighting function based on any Term Selection Reduction (TSR) function (e.g., information gain,
+    chi-square, etc.) or, more generally, on any function that could be computed on the 4-cell contingency table for
+    each category-feature pair.
+    The supervised_4cell_matrix is a `(n_classes, n_words)` matrix containing the 4-cell contingency tables
+    for each class-word pair, and can be pre-computed (e.g., during the feature selection phase) and passed as an
+    argument.
+    When `n_classes>1`, i.e., in multiclass scenarios, a global_policy is used in order to determine a
+    single feature-score which informs about its relevance. Accepted policies include "max" (takes the max score
+    across categories), "ave" and "wave" (take the average, or weighted average, across all categories -- weights
+    correspond to the class prevalence), and "sum" (which sums all category scores).
+    """
+
+    def __init__(self, tsr_function, global_policy='max', supervised_4cell_matrix=None, sublinear_tf=True, norm='l2', min_df=3, n_jobs=-1):
+        if global_policy not in ['max', 'ave', 'wave', 'sum']: raise ValueError('Global policy should be in {"max", "ave", "wave", "sum"}')
+        self.tsr_function = tsr_function
+        self.global_policy = global_policy
+        self.supervised_4cell_matrix = supervised_4cell_matrix
+        self.sublinear_tf = sublinear_tf
+        self.norm = norm
+        self.min_df = min_df
+        self.n_jobs = n_jobs
+
+    def fit(self, X, y):
+        self.count_vectorizer = CountVectorizer(min_df=self.min_df)
+        X = self.count_vectorizer.fit_transform(X)
+
+        self.tf_vectorizer = TfidfTransformer(
+            norm=None, use_idf=False, smooth_idf=False, sublinear_tf=self.sublinear_tf
+        ).fit(X)
+
+        if len(y.shape) == 1:
+            y = np.expand_dims(y, axis=1)
+
+        nD, nC = y.shape
+        nF = len(self.tf_vectorizer.get_feature_names_out())
+
+        if self.supervised_4cell_matrix is None:
+            self.supervised_4cell_matrix = get_supervised_matrix(X, y, n_jobs=self.n_jobs)
+        else:
+            if self.supervised_4cell_matrix.shape != (nC, nF):
+                raise ValueError("Shape of supervised information matrix is inconsistent with X and y")
+
+        tsr_matrix = get_tsr_matrix(self.supervised_4cell_matrix, self.tsr_function)
+
+        if self.global_policy == 'ave':
+            self.global_tsr_vector = np.average(tsr_matrix, axis=0)
+        elif self.global_policy == 'wave':
+            category_prevalences = [sum(y[:,c])*1.0/nD for c in range(nC)]
+            self.global_tsr_vector = np.average(tsr_matrix, axis=0, weights=category_prevalences)
+        elif self.global_policy == 'sum':
+            self.global_tsr_vector = np.sum(tsr_matrix, axis=0)
+        elif self.global_policy == 'max':
+            self.global_tsr_vector = np.amax(tsr_matrix, axis=0)
+        return self
+
+    def fit_transform(self, X, y):
+        return self.fit(X,y).transform(X)
+
+    def transform(self, X):
+        if not hasattr(self, 'global_tsr_vector'): raise NameError('TSRweighting: transform method called before fit.')
+        X = self.count_vectorizer.transform(X)
+        tf_X = self.tf_vectorizer.transform(X).toarray()
+        weighted_X = np.multiply(tf_X, self.global_tsr_vector)
+        if self.norm is not None and self.norm!='none':
+            weighted_X = sklearn.preprocessing.normalize(weighted_X, norm=self.norm, axis=1, copy=False)
+        return csr_matrix(weighted_X)

experimental_non_aggregative/method_dxs.py

@@ -0,0 +1,208 @@
+from scipy.sparse import issparse
+from sklearn.decomposition import TruncatedSVD
+from sklearn.feature_extraction.text import TfidfVectorizer, CountVectorizer
+from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression
+from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
+
+import quapy as qp
+from data import LabelledCollection
+import numpy as np
+
+from experimental_non_aggregative.custom_vectorizers import *
+from method._kdey import KDEBase
+from protocol import APP
+from quapy.method.aggregative import HDy, DistributionMatchingY
+from quapy.method.base import BaseQuantifier
+from scipy import optimize
+import pandas as pd
+import quapy.functional as F
+
+
+# TODO: explore the bernoulli (term presence/absence) variant
+# TODO: explore the multinomial (term frequency) variant
+# TODO: explore the multinomial + length normalization variant
+# TODO: consolidate the TSR-variant (e.g., using information gain) variant;
+#   - works better with the idf?
+#   - works better with length normalization?
+#   - etc
+
+class DxS(BaseQuantifier):
+    def __init__(self, vectorizer=None, divergence='topsoe'):
+        self.vectorizer = vectorizer
+        self.divergence = divergence
+
+    # def __as_distribution(self, instances):
+    #     return np.asarray(instances.sum(axis=0) / instances.sum()).flatten()
+
+    def __as_distribution(self, instances):
+        dist = instances.mean(axis=0)
+        return np.asarray(dist).flatten()
+
+    def fit(self, text_instances, labels):
+
+        classes = np.unique(labels)
+
+        if self.vectorizer is not None:
+            text_instances = self.vectorizer.fit_transform(text_instances, y=labels)
+
+        distributions = []
+        for class_i in classes:
+            distributions.append(self.__as_distribution(text_instances[labels == class_i]))
+
+        self.validation_distribution = np.asarray(distributions)
+
+        return self
+
+    def predict(self, text_instances):
+        if self.vectorizer is not None:
+            text_instances = self.vectorizer.transform(text_instances)
+
+        test_distribution = self.__as_distribution(text_instances)
+        divergence = qp.functional.get_divergence(self.divergence)
+        n_classes, n_feats = self.validation_distribution.shape
+
+        def match(prev):
+            prev = np.expand_dims(prev, axis=0)
+            mixture_distribution = (prev @ self.validation_distribution).flatten()
+            return divergence(test_distribution, mixture_distribution)
+
+        # the initial point is set as the uniform distribution
+        uniform_distribution = np.full(fill_value=1 / n_classes, shape=(n_classes,))
+
+        # solutions are bounded to those contained in the unit-simplex
+        bounds = tuple((0, 1) for x in range(n_classes))  # values in [0,1]
+        constraints = ({'type': 'eq', 'fun': lambda x: 1 - sum(x)})  # values summing up to 1
+        r = optimize.minimize(match, x0=uniform_distribution, method='SLSQP', bounds=bounds, constraints=constraints)
+        return r.x
+
+
+
+class KDExML(BaseQuantifier, KDEBase):
+
+    def __init__(self, bandwidth=0.1, standardize=False):
+        self._check_bandwidth(bandwidth)
+        self.bandwidth = bandwidth
+        self.standardize = standardize
+
+    def fit(self, X, y):
+        classes = sorted(np.unique(y))
+
+        if self.standardize:
+            self.scaler = StandardScaler()
+            X = self.scaler.fit_transform(X)
+
+        if issparse(X):
+            X = X.toarray()
+
+        self.mix_densities = self.get_mixture_components(X, y, classes, self.bandwidth)
+        return self
+
+    def predict(self, X):
+        """
+        Searches for the mixture model parameter (the sought prevalence values) that maximizes the likelihood
+        of the data (i.e., that minimizes the negative log-likelihood)
+
+        :param X: instances in the sample
+        :return: a vector of class prevalence estimates
+        """
+        epsilon = 1e-10
+        if issparse(X):
+            X = X.toarray()
+        n_classes = len(self.mix_densities)
+        if self.standardize:
+            X = self.scaler.transform(X)
+        test_densities = [self.pdf(kde_i, X) for kde_i in self.mix_densities]
+
+        def neg_loglikelihood(prev):
+            test_mixture_likelihood = sum(prev_i * dens_i for prev_i, dens_i in zip (prev, test_densities))
+            test_loglikelihood = np.log(test_mixture_likelihood + epsilon)
+            return  -np.sum(test_loglikelihood)
+
+        return F.optim_minimize(neg_loglikelihood, n_classes)
+
+
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+
+    qp.environ['SAMPLE_SIZE'] = 250
+    qp.environ['N_JOBS'] = -1
+    min_df = 10
+    # dataset = 'imdb'
+    repeats = 10
+    error = 'mae'
+
+    div = 'topsoe'
+
+    # generates tuples (dataset, method, method_name)
+    # (the dataset is needed for methods that process the dataset differently)
+    def gen_methods():
+
+        for dataset in qp.datasets.REVIEWS_SENTIMENT_DATASETS:
+
+            data = qp.datasets.fetch_reviews(dataset, tfidf=False)
+
+            # bernoulli_vectorizer = CountVectorizer(min_df=min_df, binary=True)
+            # dxs = DxS(divergence=div, vectorizer=bernoulli_vectorizer)
+            # yield data, dxs, 'DxS-Bernoulli'
+            #
+            # multinomial_vectorizer = CountVectorizer(min_df=min_df, binary=False)
+            # dxs = DxS(divergence=div, vectorizer=multinomial_vectorizer)
+            # yield data, dxs, 'DxS-multinomial'
+            #
+            # tf_vectorizer = TfidfVectorizer(sublinear_tf=False, use_idf=False, min_df=min_df, norm=None)
+            # dxs = DxS(divergence=div, vectorizer=tf_vectorizer)
+            # yield data, dxs, 'DxS-TF'
+            #
+            # logtf_vectorizer = TfidfVectorizer(sublinear_tf=True, use_idf=False, min_df=min_df, norm=None)
+            # dxs = DxS(divergence=div, vectorizer=logtf_vectorizer)
+            # yield data, dxs, 'DxS-logTF'
+            #
+            # tfidf_vectorizer = TfidfVectorizer(use_idf=True, min_df=min_df, norm=None)
+            # dxs = DxS(divergence=div, vectorizer=tfidf_vectorizer)
+            # yield data, dxs, 'DxS-TFIDF'
+            #
+            # tfidf_vectorizer = TfidfVectorizer(use_idf=True, min_df=min_df, norm='l2')
+            # dxs = DxS(divergence=div, vectorizer=tfidf_vectorizer)
+            # yield data, dxs, 'DxS-TFIDF-l2'
+
+            tsr_vectorizer = TSRweighting(tsr_function=information_gain, min_df=min_df, norm='l2')
+            dxs = DxS(divergence=div, vectorizer=tsr_vectorizer)
+            yield data, dxs, 'DxS-TFTSR-l2'
+
+            data = qp.datasets.fetch_reviews(dataset, tfidf=True, min_df=min_df)
+
+            kdex = KDExML()
+            reduction = TruncatedSVD(n_components=100, random_state=0)
+            red_data = qp.data.preprocessing.instance_transformation(data, transformer=reduction, inplace=False)
+            yield red_data, kdex, 'KDEx'
+
+            hdy = HDy(LogisticRegression())
+            yield data, hdy, 'HDy'
+
+            # dm = DistributionMatchingY(LogisticRegression(), divergence=div, nbins=5)
+            # yield data, dm, 'DM-5b'
+            #
+            # dm = DistributionMatchingY(LogisticRegression(), divergence=div, nbins=10)
+            # yield data, dm, 'DM-10b'
+
+
+
+
+    result_path = 'results.csv'
+    with open(result_path, 'wt') as csv:
+        csv.write(f'Method\tDataset\tMAE\tMRAE\n')
+        for data, quantifier, quant_name in gen_methods():
+            quantifier.fit(*data.training.Xy)
+            report = qp.evaluation.evaluation_report(quantifier, APP(data.test, repeats=repeats), error_metrics=['mae','mrae'], verbose=True)
+            means = report.mean(numeric_only=True)
+            csv.write(f'{quant_name}\t{data.name}\t{means["mae"]:.5f}\t{means["mrae"]:.5f}\n')
+
+    df = pd.read_csv(result_path, sep='\t')
+    # print(df)
+
+    pv = df.pivot_table(index='Method', columns="Dataset", values=["MAE", "MRAE"])
+    print(pv)
+
+
+
+

quapy/__init__.py

@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ from . import model_selection
 from . import classification
 import os
 
-__version__ = '0.2.0'
+__version__ = '0.2.1'
 
 
 def _default_cls():

quapy/data/_lequa.py

@@ -99,6 +99,9 @@ class SamplesFromDir(AbstractProtocol):
             sample, _ = self.load_fn(os.path.join(self.path_dir, f'{id}.txt'))
             yield sample, prevalence
 
+    def total(self):
+        return len(self.true_prevs)
+
 
 class LabelledCollectionsFromDir(AbstractProtocol):
 
@@ -113,6 +116,9 @@ class LabelledCollectionsFromDir(AbstractProtocol):
             lc = LabelledCollection.load(path=collection_path, loader_func=self.load_fn)
             yield lc
 
+    def total(self):
+        return len(self.true_prevs)
+
 
 class ResultSubmission:
 

quapy/data/base.py

@@ -33,7 +33,6 @@ class LabelledCollection:
         else:
             self.instances = np.asarray(instances)
         self.labels = np.asarray(labels)
-        n_docs = len(self)
         if classes is None:
             self.classes_ = F.classes_from_labels(self.labels)
         else:
@@ -41,7 +40,13 @@ class LabelledCollection:
             self.classes_.sort()
             if len(set(self.labels).difference(set(classes))) > 0:
                 raise ValueError(f'labels ({set(self.labels)}) contain values not included in classes_ ({set(classes)})')
-        self.index = {class_: np.arange(n_docs)[self.labels == class_] for class_ in self.classes_}
+        self._index = None
+
+    @property
+    def index(self):
+        if not hasattr(self, '_index') or self._index is None:
+            self._index = {class_: np.arange(len(self))[self.labels == class_] for class_ in self.classes_}
+        return self._index
 
     @classmethod
     def load(cls, path: str, loader_func: callable, classes=None, **loader_kwargs):

quapy/data/datasets.py

@@ -663,8 +663,8 @@ def fetch_UCIMulticlassLabelledCollection(dataset_name, data_home=None, min_clas
     :param dataset_name: a dataset name
     :param data_home: specify the quapy home directory where the dataset will be dumped (leave empty to use the default
         ~/quay_data/ directory)
-    :param min_class_support: minimum number of istances per class. Classes with fewer instances
-        are discarded (deafult is 100)
+    :param min_class_support: integer or float, the minimum number or proportion of istances per class.
+        Classes with fewer instances are discarded (deafult is 100).
     :param standardize: indicates whether the covariates should be standardized or not (default is True). 
     :param verbose: set to True (default is False) to get information (stats) about the dataset
     :return: a :class:`quapy.data.base.LabelledCollection` instance
@@ -674,6 +674,11 @@ def fetch_UCIMulticlassLabelledCollection(dataset_name, data_home=None, min_clas
         f'UCI Machine Learning datasets repository (multiclass). ' \
         f'Valid ones are {UCI_MULTICLASS_DATASETS}'
 
+    assert (min_class_support is None or
+            ((isinstance(min_class_support, int) and min_class_support>=0) or
+            (isinstance(min_class_support, float) and 0. <= min_class_support < 1.))), \
+        f'invalid value for {min_class_support=}; expected non negative integer or float in [0,1)'
+
     if data_home is None:
         data_home = get_quapy_home()
     
@@ -739,26 +744,43 @@ def fetch_UCIMulticlassLabelledCollection(dataset_name, data_home=None, min_clas
 
     file = join(data_home, 'uci_multiclass', dataset_name+'.pkl')
 
+    def dummify_categorical_features(df_features, dataset_id):
+        CATEGORICAL_FEATURES = {
+            158: ["S1", "C1", "S2", "C2", "S3", "C3", "S4", "C4", "S5", "C5"],  # poker_hand
+        }
+
+        categorical = CATEGORICAL_FEATURES.get(dataset_id, [])
+
+        X = df_features.copy()
+        if categorical:
+            X[categorical] = X[categorical].astype("category")
+            X = pd.get_dummies(X, columns=categorical, drop_first=True)
+
+        return X
+
     def download(id, name):
         df = fetch_ucirepo(id=id)
 
-        df.data.features = pd.get_dummies(df.data.features, drop_first=True)
-        X, y = df.data.features.to_numpy(dtype=np.float64), df.data.targets.to_numpy().squeeze()
+        X_df = dummify_categorical_features(df.data.features, id)
+        X = X_df.to_numpy(dtype=np.float64)
+        y = df.data.targets.to_numpy().squeeze()
 
-        assert y.ndim == 1, 'more than one y'
+        assert y.ndim == 1, f'error: the dataset {id=} {name=} has more than one target variable'
 
         classes = np.sort(np.unique(y))
         y = np.searchsorted(classes, y)
         return LabelledCollection(X, y)
 
-    def filter_classes(data: LabelledCollection, min_ipc):
-        if min_ipc is None:
-            min_ipc = 0
+    def filter_classes(data: LabelledCollection, min_class_support):
+        if min_class_support is None or min_class_support == 0.:
+            return data
+        if isinstance(min_class_support, float):
+            min_class_support = int(len(data) * min_class_support)
         classes = data.classes_
-        # restrict classes to only those with at least min_ipc instances
-        classes = classes[data.counts() >= min_ipc]
+        # restrict classes to only those with at least min_class_support instances
+        classes = classes[data.counts() >= min_class_support]
         # filter X and y keeping only datapoints belonging to valid classes
-        filter_idx = np.in1d(data.y, classes)
+        filter_idx = np.isin(data.y, classes)
         X, y = data.X[filter_idx], data.y[filter_idx]
         # map classes to range(len(classes))
         y = np.searchsorted(classes, y)

quapy/data/preprocessing.py

@@ -10,6 +10,37 @@ from quapy.util import map_parallel
 from .base import LabelledCollection
 
 
+def instance_transformation(dataset:Dataset, transformer, inplace=False):
+    """
+    Transforms a :class:`quapy.data.base.Dataset` applying the `fit_transform` and `transform` functions
+    of a (sklearn's) transformer.
+
+    :param dataset: a :class:`quapy.data.base.Dataset` where the instances of training and test collections are
+        lists of str
+    :param transformer: TransformerMixin implementing `fit_transform` and `transform` functions
+    :param inplace: whether or not to apply the transformation inplace (True), or to a new copy (False, default)
+    :return: a new :class:`quapy.data.base.Dataset` with transformed instances (if inplace=False) or a reference to the
+        current Dataset (if inplace=True) where the instances have been transformed
+    """
+    training_transformed = transformer.fit_transform(*dataset.training.Xy)
+    test_transformed = transformer.transform(dataset.test.X)
+    orig_name = dataset.name
+
+    if inplace:
+        dataset.training = LabelledCollection(training_transformed, dataset.training.labels, dataset.classes_)
+        dataset.test = LabelledCollection(test_transformed, dataset.test.labels, dataset.classes_)
+        if hasattr(transformer, 'vocabulary_'):
+            dataset.vocabulary = transformer.vocabulary_
+        return dataset
+    else:
+        training = LabelledCollection(training_transformed, dataset.training.labels.copy(), dataset.classes_)
+        test = LabelledCollection(test_transformed, dataset.test.labels.copy(), dataset.classes_)
+        vocab = None
+        if hasattr(transformer, 'vocabulary_'):
+            vocab = transformer.vocabulary_
+        return Dataset(training, test, vocabulary=vocab, name=orig_name)
+
+
 def text2tfidf(dataset:Dataset, min_df=3, sublinear_tf=True, inplace=False, **kwargs):
     """
     Transforms a :class:`quapy.data.base.Dataset` of textual instances into a :class:`quapy.data.base.Dataset` of
@@ -29,18 +60,7 @@ def text2tfidf(dataset:Dataset, min_df=3, sublinear_tf=True, inplace=False, **kw
     __check_type(dataset.test.instances, np.ndarray, str)
 
     vectorizer = TfidfVectorizer(min_df=min_df, sublinear_tf=sublinear_tf, **kwargs)
-    training_documents = vectorizer.fit_transform(dataset.training.instances)
-    test_documents = vectorizer.transform(dataset.test.instances)
-
-    if inplace:
-        dataset.training = LabelledCollection(training_documents, dataset.training.labels, dataset.classes_)
-        dataset.test = LabelledCollection(test_documents, dataset.test.labels, dataset.classes_)
-        dataset.vocabulary = vectorizer.vocabulary_
-        return dataset
-    else:
-        training = LabelledCollection(training_documents, dataset.training.labels.copy(), dataset.classes_)
-        test = LabelledCollection(test_documents, dataset.test.labels.copy(), dataset.classes_)
-        return Dataset(training, test, vectorizer.vocabulary_)
+    return instance_transformation(dataset, vectorizer, inplace)
 
 
 def reduce_columns(dataset: Dataset, min_df=5, inplace=False):

quapy/error.py

@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@
 import numpy as np
 from sklearn.metrics import f1_score
 import quapy as qp
+from functional import CLRtransformation
 
 
 def from_name(err_name):
@@ -128,6 +129,63 @@ def se(prevs_true, prevs_hat):
     return ((prevs_hat - prevs_true) ** 2).mean(axis=-1)
 
 
+def sre(prevs_true, prevs_hat, prevs_train, eps=0.):
+    """
+    The squared ratio error is defined as
+    :math:`SRE(p,\\hat{p},p^{tr})=\\frac{1}{|\\mathcal{Y}|}\\sum_{i \\in \\mathcal{Y}}(w_i-\\hat{w}_i)^2`,
+    where
+    :math:`w_i=\\frac{p_i}{p^{tr}_i}=\\frac{Q(Y=i)}{P(Y=i)}`,
+    and `\\hat{w}_i` is the estimate obtained by replacing the true test prior with an estimate, and
+     :math:`\\mathcal{Y}` are the classes of interest
+    :param prevs_true: array-like, true prevalence values
+    :param prevs_hat: array-like, estimated prevalence values
+    :param prevs_train: array-like with the training prevalence values, or a single prevalence vector when
+        all the prevs_true and prevs_hat are computed on the same training set.
+    :param eps: float, for smoothing the prevalence values. It is 0 by default (no smoothing), meaning the
+        training prevalence is expected to be >0 everywhere.
+    :return: the squared ratio error
+    """
+    prevs_true = np.asarray(prevs_true)
+    prevs_hat = np.asarray(prevs_hat)
+    prevs_train = np.asarray(prevs_train)
+    assert prevs_true.shape == prevs_hat.shape, f'wrong shape {prevs_true.shape=} vs {prevs_hat.shape=}'
+    assert prevs_true.shape[-1]==prevs_train.shape[-1], 'wrong shape for training prevalence'
+    if prevs_true.ndim == 2 and prevs_train.ndim == 1:
+        prevs_train = np.tile(prevs_train, reps=(prevs_true.shape[0], 1))
+    if eps>0:
+        prevs_true = smooth(prevs_true, eps)
+        prevs_hat = smooth(prevs_hat, eps)
+        prevs_train = smooth(prevs_train, eps)
+
+    N = prevs_true.shape[-1]
+    w = prevs_true / prevs_train
+    w_hat = prevs_hat / prevs_train
+    return (1./N) * np.sum((w - w_hat)**2., axis=-1)
+
+
+def msre(prevs_true, prevs_hat, prevs_train, eps=0.):
+    """
+    Returns the mean :function:`sre` across all experiments.
+
+    :param prevs_true: array-like, true prevalence values of shape (n_experiments, n_classes,) or (n_classes,)
+    :param prevs_hat: array-like, estimated prevalence values of shape equal to prevs_true
+    :param prevs_train: array-like, training prevalence values of  (n_experiments, n_classes,) or (n_classes,)
+    :param eps: float, for smoothing the prevalence values. It is 0 by default (no smoothing), meaning the
+        training prevalence is expected to be >0 everywhere.
+    :return: the squared ratio error
+    """
+    return np.mean(squared_ratio_error(prevs_true, prevs_hat, prevs_train, eps))
+
+
+def dist_aitchison(prevs_true, prevs_hat):
+    clr = CLRtransformation()
+    return np.linalg.norm(clr(prevs_true) - clr(prevs_hat), axis=-1)
+
+
+def mean_dist_aitchison(prevs_true, prevs_hat):
+    return np.mean(dist_aitchison(prevs_true, prevs_hat))
+
+
 def mkld(prevs_true, prevs_hat, eps=None):
     """Computes the mean Kullback-Leibler divergence (see :meth:`quapy.error.kld`) across the
     sample pairs. The distributions are smoothed using the `eps` factor
@@ -374,8 +432,8 @@ def __check_eps(eps=None):
 
 
 CLASSIFICATION_ERROR = {f1e, acce}
-QUANTIFICATION_ERROR = {mae, mnae, mrae, mnrae, mse, mkld, mnkld}
-QUANTIFICATION_ERROR_SINGLE = {ae, nae, rae, nrae, se, kld, nkld}
+QUANTIFICATION_ERROR = {mae, mnae, mrae, mnrae, mse, mkld, mnkld, msre, mean_dist_aitchison}
+QUANTIFICATION_ERROR_SINGLE = {ae, nae, rae, nrae, se, kld, nkld, sre, dist_aitchison}
 QUANTIFICATION_ERROR_SMOOTH = {kld, nkld, rae, nrae, mkld, mnkld, mrae}
 CLASSIFICATION_ERROR_NAMES = {func.__name__ for func in CLASSIFICATION_ERROR}
 QUANTIFICATION_ERROR_NAMES = {func.__name__ for func in QUANTIFICATION_ERROR}
@@ -387,6 +445,7 @@ ERROR_NAMES = \
 f1_error = f1e
 acc_error = acce
 mean_absolute_error = mae
+squared_ratio_error = sre
 absolute_error = ae
 mean_relative_absolute_error = mrae
 relative_absolute_error = rae

quapy/functional.py

@@ -1,10 +1,15 @@
 import warnings
+from abc import ABC, abstractmethod
 from collections import defaultdict
+from functools import lru_cache
 from typing import Literal, Union, Callable
 from numpy.typing import ArrayLike
 
 import scipy
 import numpy as np
+from scipy.special import softmax
+
+import quapy as qp
 
 
 # ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
@@ -277,7 +282,7 @@ def l1_norm(prevalences: ArrayLike) -> np.ndarray:
     """
     n_classes = prevalences.shape[-1]
     accum = prevalences.sum(axis=-1, keepdims=True)
-    prevalences = np.true_divide(prevalences, accum, where=accum > 0)
+    prevalences = np.true_divide(prevalences, accum, where=accum > 0, out=None)
     allzeros = accum.flatten() == 0
     if any(allzeros):
         if prevalences.ndim == 1:
@@ -583,8 +588,8 @@ def solve_adjustment(
     """
     Function that tries to solve for :math:`p` the equation :math:`q = M p`, where :math:`q` is the vector of
     `unadjusted counts` (as estimated, e.g., via classify and count) with :math:`q_i` an estimate of
-    :math:`P(\hat{Y}=y_i)`, and where :math:`M` is the matrix of `class-conditional rates` with :math:`M_{ij}` an
-    estimate of :math:`P(\hat{Y}=y_i|Y=y_j)`.
+    :math:`P(\\hat{Y}=y_i)`, and where :math:`M` is the matrix of `class-conditional rates` with :math:`M_{ij}` an
+    estimate of :math:`P(\\hat{Y}=y_i|Y=y_j)`.
 
     :param class_conditional_rates: array of shape `(n_classes, n_classes,)` with entry `(i,j)` being the estimate
         of :math:`P(\hat{Y}=y_i|Y=y_j)`, that is, the probability that an instance that belongs to class :math:`y_j`
@@ -649,3 +654,96 @@ def solve_adjustment(
         raise ValueError(f'unknown {solver=}')
 
 
+# ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Transformations from Compositional analysis
+# ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+class CompositionalTransformation(ABC):
+    """
+    Abstract class of transformations from compositional data.
+    Basically, callable functions with an "inverse" function.
+    """
+    @abstractmethod
+    def __call__(self, X): ...
+
+    @abstractmethod
+    def inverse(self, Z): ...
+
+    EPSILON=1e-6
+
+
+class CLRtransformation(CompositionalTransformation):
+    """
+    Centered log-ratio (CLR), from compositional analysis
+    """
+    def __call__(self, X):
+        """
+        Applies the CLR function to X thus mapping the instances, which are contained in `\\mathcal{R}^{n}` but
+        actually lie on a `\\mathcal{R}^{n-1}` simplex, onto an unrestricted space in :math:`\\mathcal{R}^{n}`
+
+        :param X: np.ndarray of (n_instances, n_dimensions) to be transformed
+        :param epsilon: small float for prevalence smoothing
+        :return: np.ndarray of (n_instances, n_dimensions), the CLR-transformed points
+        """
+        X = np.asarray(X)
+        X = qp.error.smooth(X, self.EPSILON)
+        G = np.exp(np.mean(np.log(X), axis=-1, keepdims=True))  # geometric mean
+        return np.log(X / G)
+
+    def inverse(self, Z):
+        """
+        Inverse function. However, clr.inverse(clr(X)) does not exactly coincide with X due to smoothing.
+
+        :param Z: np.ndarray of (n_instances, n_dimensions) to be transformed
+        :return: np.ndarray of (n_instances, n_dimensions), the CLR-transformed points
+        """
+        return scipy.special.softmax(Z, axis=-1)
+
+
+class ILRtransformation(CompositionalTransformation):
+    """
+    Isometric log-ratio (ILR), from compositional analysis
+    """
+    def __call__(self, X):
+        X = np.asarray(X)
+        X = qp.error.smooth(X, self.EPSILON)
+        k = X.shape[-1]
+        V = self.get_V(k)  # (k-1, k)
+        logp = np.log(X)
+        return logp @ V.T
+
+    def inverse(self, Z):
+        Z = np.asarray(Z)
+        # get dimension
+        k_minus_1 = Z.shape[-1]
+        k = k_minus_1 + 1
+        V = self.get_V(k)  # (k-1, k)
+        logp = Z @ V
+        p = np.exp(logp)
+        p = p / np.sum(p, axis=-1, keepdims=True)
+        return p
+
+    @lru_cache(maxsize=None)
+    def get_V(self, k):
+        def helmert_matrix(k):
+            """
+            Returns the (k x k) Helmert matrix.
+            """
+            H = np.zeros((k, k))
+            for i in range(1, k):
+                H[i, :i] = 1
+                H[i, i] = -(i)
+                H[i] = H[i] / np.sqrt(i * (i + 1))
+            # row 0 stays zeros; will be discarded
+            return H
+
+        def ilr_basis(k):
+            """
+            Constructs an orthonormal ILR basis using the Helmert submatrix.
+            Output shape: (k-1, k)
+            """
+            H = helmert_matrix(k)
+            V = H[1:, :]  # remove first row of zeros
+            return V
+
+        return ilr_basis(k)

quapy/method/__init__.py

@@ -29,6 +29,7 @@ AGGREGATIVE_METHODS = {
     aggregative.KDEyHD,
     # aggregative.OneVsAllAggregative,
     confidence.BayesianCC,
+    confidence.PQ,
 }
 
 BINARY_METHODS = {
@@ -40,6 +41,7 @@ BINARY_METHODS = {
     aggregative.MAX,
     aggregative.MS,
     aggregative.MS2,
+    confidence.PQ,
 }
 
 MULTICLASS_METHODS = {

quapy/method/_bayesian.py

@@ -1,13 +1,21 @@
 """
 Utility functions for `Bayesian quantification <https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.09159>`_ methods.
 """
+import contextlib
+import os
+import sys
+
 import numpy as np
+import importlib.resources
 
 try:
     import jax
     import jax.numpy as jnp
     import numpyro
     import numpyro.distributions as dist
+    import stan
+    import logging
+    import stan.common
 
     DEPENDENCIES_INSTALLED = True
 except ImportError:
@@ -15,6 +23,7 @@ except ImportError:
     jnp = None
     numpyro = None
     dist = None
+    stan = None
 
     DEPENDENCIES_INSTALLED = False
 
@@ -24,7 +33,7 @@ P_TEST_C: str = "P_test(C)"
 P_C_COND_Y: str = "P(C|Y)"
 
 
-def model(n_c_unlabeled: np.ndarray, n_y_and_c_labeled: np.ndarray) -> None:
+def model_bayesianCC(n_c_unlabeled: np.ndarray, n_y_and_c_labeled: np.ndarray, temperature:float, alpha: np.ndarray) -> None:
     """
     Defines a probabilistic model in `NumPyro <https://num.pyro.ai/>`_.
 
@@ -38,21 +47,52 @@ def model(n_c_unlabeled: np.ndarray, n_y_and_c_labeled: np.ndarray) -> None:
     K = len(n_c_unlabeled)
     L = len(n_y_labeled)
 
-    pi_ = numpyro.sample(P_TEST_Y, dist.Dirichlet(jnp.ones(L)))
+    pi_ = numpyro.sample(P_TEST_Y, dist.Dirichlet(jnp.asarray(alpha, dtype=jnp.float32)))
     p_c_cond_y = numpyro.sample(P_C_COND_Y, dist.Dirichlet(jnp.ones(K).repeat(L).reshape(L, K)))
 
+    if temperature==1:
+        # original implementation
         with numpyro.plate('plate', L):
             numpyro.sample('F_yc', dist.Multinomial(n_y_labeled, p_c_cond_y), obs=n_y_and_c_labeled)
 
         p_c = numpyro.deterministic(P_TEST_C, jnp.einsum("yc,y->c", p_c_cond_y, pi_))
         numpyro.sample('N_c', dist.Multinomial(jnp.sum(n_c_unlabeled), p_c), obs=n_c_unlabeled) 
+    else:
+        # with temperature modification
+        with numpyro.plate('plate_y', L):
+            logp_F = dist.Multinomial(
+                n_y_labeled,
+                p_c_cond_y
+            ).log_prob(n_y_and_c_labeled)
+
+        numpyro.factor(
+            'F_yc_loglik',
+            jnp.sum(logp_F) / temperature
+        )
+        p_c = numpyro.deterministic(
+            P_TEST_C,
+            jnp.einsum("yc,y->c", p_c_cond_y, pi_)
+        )
+
+        # Likelihood datos no etiquetados
+        logp_N = dist.Multinomial(
+            jnp.sum(n_c_unlabeled),
+            p_c
+        ).log_prob(n_c_unlabeled)
+
+        numpyro.factor(
+            'N_c_loglik',
+            logp_N / temperature
+        )
 
 
-def sample_posterior(
+def sample_posterior_bayesianCC(
         n_c_unlabeled: np.ndarray,
         n_y_and_c_labeled: np.ndarray,
         num_warmup: int,
         num_samples: int,
+        alpha: np.ndarray,
+        temperature = 1.,
         seed: int = 0,
 ) -> dict:
     """
@@ -65,15 +105,86 @@ def sample_posterior(
         with entry `(y, c)` being the number of instances labeled as class `y` and predicted as class `c`.
     :param num_warmup: the number of warmup steps.
     :param num_samples: the number of samples to draw.
+    :param alpha: a `np.ndarray` of shape `(n_classes,)` with the alpha parameters of the
+        Dirichlet prior
     :seed: the random seed.
     :return: a `dict` with the samples. The keys are the names of the latent variables.
     """
+
     mcmc = numpyro.infer.MCMC(
-        numpyro.infer.NUTS(model),
+        numpyro.infer.NUTS(model_bayesianCC),
         num_warmup=num_warmup,
         num_samples=num_samples,
         progress_bar=False
     )
     rng_key = jax.random.PRNGKey(seed)
-    mcmc.run(rng_key, n_c_unlabeled=n_c_unlabeled, n_y_and_c_labeled=n_y_and_c_labeled)
+    mcmc.run(rng_key, n_c_unlabeled=n_c_unlabeled, n_y_and_c_labeled=n_y_and_c_labeled, temperature=temperature, alpha=alpha)
     return mcmc.get_samples()
+
+
+
+def load_stan_file():
+    return importlib.resources.files('quapy.method').joinpath('stan/pq.stan').read_text(encoding='utf-8')
+
+
+@contextlib.contextmanager
+def _suppress_stan_logging():
+    with open(os.devnull, "w") as devnull:
+        old_stderr = sys.stderr
+        sys.stderr = devnull
+        try:
+            yield
+        finally:
+            sys.stderr = old_stderr
+
+
+def pq_stan(stan_code, n_bins, pos_hist, neg_hist, test_hist, number_of_samples, num_warmup, stan_seed):
+    """
+    Perform Bayesian prevalence estimation using a Stan model for probabilistic quantification.
+
+    This function builds and samples from a Stan model that implements a bin-based Bayesian
+    quantifier. It uses the class-conditional histograms of the classifier
+    outputs for positive and negative examples, along with the test histogram, to estimate
+    the posterior distribution of prevalence in the test set.
+
+    Parameters
+    ----------
+    stan_code : str
+        The Stan model code as a string. 
+    n_bins : int
+        Number of bins used to build the histograms for positive and negative examples.
+    pos_hist : array-like of shape (n_bins,)
+        Histogram counts of the classifier outputs for the positive class.
+    neg_hist : array-like of shape (n_bins,)
+        Histogram counts of the classifier outputs for the negative class.
+    test_hist : array-like of shape (n_bins,)
+        Histogram counts of the classifier outputs for the test set, binned using the same bins.
+    number_of_samples : int
+        Number of post-warmup samples to draw from the Stan posterior.
+    num_warmup : int
+        Number of warmup iterations for the sampler.
+    stan_seed : int
+        Random seed for Stan model compilation and sampling, ensuring reproducibility.
+
+    Returns
+    -------
+    prev_samples : numpy.ndarray
+        An array of posterior samples of the prevalence (`prev`) in the test set.
+        Each element corresponds to one draw from the posterior distribution.
+    """
+
+    logging.getLogger("stan.common").setLevel(logging.ERROR)
+
+    stan_data = {
+            'n_bucket': n_bins,
+            'train_neg': neg_hist.tolist(),
+            'train_pos': pos_hist.tolist(),
+            'test': test_hist.tolist(),
+            'posterior': 1
+        }
+
+    with _suppress_stan_logging():
+        stan_model = stan.build(stan_code, data=stan_data, random_seed=stan_seed)
+        fit = stan_model.sample(num_chains=1, num_samples=number_of_samples,num_warmup=num_warmup)
+
+    return fit['prev']

quapy/method/_kdey.py

@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ from sklearn.neighbors import KernelDensity
 import quapy as qp
 from quapy.method.aggregative import AggregativeSoftQuantifier
 import quapy.functional as F
-
+from scipy.special import logsumexp
 from sklearn.metrics.pairwise import rbf_kernel
 
 
@@ -15,9 +15,11 @@ class KDEBase:
     """
 
     BANDWIDTH_METHOD = ['scott', 'silverman']
+    KERNELS = ['gaussian', 'aitchison', 'ilr']
+
 
     @classmethod
-    def _check_bandwidth(cls, bandwidth):
+    def _check_bandwidth(cls, bandwidth, kernel):
         """
         Checks that the bandwidth parameter is correct
 
@@ -27,32 +29,61 @@ class KDEBase:
         assert bandwidth in KDEBase.BANDWIDTH_METHOD or isinstance(bandwidth, float), \
             f'invalid bandwidth, valid ones are {KDEBase.BANDWIDTH_METHOD} or float values'
         if isinstance(bandwidth, float):
-            assert 0 < bandwidth < 1,  \
-                "the bandwith for KDEy should be in (0,1), since this method models the unit simplex"
+            #assert kernel!='gaussian' or (0 < bandwidth < 1),  \
+            #    ("the bandwidth for a Gaussian kernel in KDEy should be in (0,1), "
+            #     "since this method models the unit simplex")
+            pass
         return bandwidth
 
-    def get_kde_function(self, X, bandwidth):
+    @classmethod
+    def _check_kernel(cls, kernel):
+        """
+        Checks that the kernel parameter is correct
+
+        :param kernel: str
+        :return: the validated kernel
+        """
+        assert kernel in KDEBase.KERNELS, f'unknown {kernel=}'
+        return kernel
+
+    def get_kde_function(self, X, bandwidth, kernel):
         """
         Wraps the KDE function from scikit-learn.
 
         :param X: data for which the density function is to be estimated
         :param bandwidth: the bandwidth of the kernel
+        :param kernel: the kernel (valid ones are in KDEBase.KERNELS)
         :return: a scikit-learn's KernelDensity object
         """
+        if kernel == 'aitchison':
+            X = self.clr_transform(X)
+        elif kernel == 'ilr':
+            X = self.ilr_transform(X)
+
         return KernelDensity(bandwidth=bandwidth).fit(X)
 
-    def pdf(self, kde, X):
+    def pdf(self, kde, X, kernel, log_densities=False):
         """
         Wraps the density evalution of scikit-learn's KDE. Scikit-learn returns log-scores (s), so this
         function returns :math:`e^{s}`
 
         :param kde: a previously fit KDE function
         :param X: the data for which the density is to be estimated
+        :param kernel: the kernel (valid ones are in KDEBase.KERNELS)
         :return: np.ndarray with the densities
         """
-        return np.exp(kde.score_samples(X))
+        if kernel == 'aitchison':
+            X = self.clr_transform(X)
+        elif kernel == 'ilr':
+            X = self.ilr_transform(X)
 
-    def get_mixture_components(self, X, y, classes, bandwidth):
+        log_density = kde.score_samples(X)
+        if log_densities:
+            return log_density
+        else:
+            return np.exp(log_density)
+
+    def get_mixture_components(self, X, y, classes, bandwidth, kernel):
         """
         Returns an array containing the mixture components, i.e., the KDE functions for each class.
 
@@ -60,15 +91,29 @@ class KDEBase:
         :param y: the class labels
         :param n_classes: integer, the number of classes
         :param bandwidth: float, the bandwidth of the kernel
+        :param kernel: the kernel (valid ones are in KDEBase.KERNELS)
         :return: a list of KernelDensity objects, each fitted with the corresponding class-specific covariates
         """
         class_cond_X = []
         for cat in classes:
             selX = X[y==cat]
             if selX.size==0:
+                print(f'WARNING: empty class {cat}')
+                raise ValueError(f'WARNING: empty class {cat}')
                 selX = [F.uniform_prevalence(len(classes))]
+
             class_cond_X.append(selX)
-        return [self.get_kde_function(X_cond_yi, bandwidth) for X_cond_yi in class_cond_X]
+        return [self.get_kde_function(X_cond_yi, bandwidth, kernel) for X_cond_yi in class_cond_X]
+
+    def clr_transform(self, X):
+        if not hasattr(self, 'clr'):
+            self.clr = F.CLRtransformation()
+        return self.clr(X)
+
+    def ilr_transform(self, X):
+        if not hasattr(self, 'ilr'):
+            self.ilr = F.ILRtransformation()
+        return self.ilr(X)
 
 
 class KDEyML(AggregativeSoftQuantifier, KDEBase):
@@ -107,17 +152,19 @@ class KDEyML(AggregativeSoftQuantifier, KDEBase):
         are to be generated in a `k`-fold cross-validation manner (with this integer indicating the value
         for `k`); or as a tuple (X,y) defining the specific set of data to use for validation.
     :param bandwidth: float, the bandwidth of the Kernel
+    :param kernel: kernel of KDE, valid ones are in KDEBase.KERNELS
     :param random_state: a seed to be set before fitting any base quantifier (default None)
     """
 
-    def __init__(self, classifier: BaseEstimator=None, fit_classifier=True, val_split=5, bandwidth=0.1,
+    def __init__(self, classifier: BaseEstimator=None, fit_classifier=True, val_split=5, bandwidth=0.1, kernel='gaussian',
                  random_state=None):
         super().__init__(classifier, fit_classifier, val_split)
-        self.bandwidth = KDEBase._check_bandwidth(bandwidth)
+        self.bandwidth = KDEBase._check_bandwidth(bandwidth, kernel)
+        self.kernel = self._check_kernel(kernel)
         self.random_state=random_state
 
     def aggregation_fit(self, classif_predictions, labels):
-        self.mix_densities = self.get_mixture_components(classif_predictions, labels, self.classes_, self.bandwidth)
+        self.mix_densities = self.get_mixture_components(classif_predictions, labels, self.classes_, self.bandwidth, self.kernel)
         return self
 
     def aggregate(self, posteriors: np.ndarray):
@@ -129,12 +176,24 @@ class KDEyML(AggregativeSoftQuantifier, KDEBase):
         :return: a vector of class prevalence estimates
         """
         with qp.util.temp_seed(self.random_state):
-            epsilon = 1e-10
+            epsilon = 1e-12
             n_classes = len(self.mix_densities)
-            test_densities = [self.pdf(kde_i, posteriors) for kde_i in self.mix_densities]
+            if n_classes>=30:
+                # new version: improves numerical stability with logsumexp, at the cost of optimization efficiency.
+                # needed if the number of classes is large (approx >= 30) because densities tend to grow exponentially
+                test_log_densities = [self.pdf(kde_i, posteriors, self.kernel, log_densities=True) for kde_i in self.mix_densities]
 
                 def neg_loglikelihood(prev):
-                test_mixture_likelihood = sum(prev_i * dens_i for prev_i, dens_i in zip (prev, test_densities))
+                    prev = np.clip(prev, epsilon, 1.0)
+                    test_loglikelihood = logsumexp(np.log(prev)[:,None] + test_log_densities, axis=0)
+                    return -np.sum(test_loglikelihood)
+            else:
+                # original implementation
+                test_densities = [self.pdf(kde_i, posteriors, self.kernel) for kde_i in self.mix_densities]
+
+                def neg_loglikelihood(prev):
+                   # prev = np.clip(prev, epsilon, 1.0)
+                   test_mixture_likelihood = prev @ test_densities
                    test_loglikelihood = np.log(test_mixture_likelihood + epsilon)
                    return -np.sum(test_loglikelihood)
 
@@ -191,7 +250,7 @@ class KDEyHD(AggregativeSoftQuantifier, KDEBase):
 
         super().__init__(classifier, fit_classifier, val_split)
         self.divergence = divergence
-        self.bandwidth = KDEBase._check_bandwidth(bandwidth)
+        self.bandwidth = KDEBase._check_bandwidth(bandwidth, kernel='gaussian')
         self.random_state=random_state
         self.montecarlo_trials = montecarlo_trials
 
@@ -278,7 +337,7 @@ class KDEyCS(AggregativeSoftQuantifier):
 
     def __init__(self, classifier: BaseEstimator=None, fit_classifier=True, val_split=5, bandwidth=0.1):
         super().__init__(classifier, fit_classifier, val_split)
-        self.bandwidth = KDEBase._check_bandwidth(bandwidth)
+        self.bandwidth = KDEBase._check_bandwidth(bandwidth, kernel='gaussian')
 
     def gram_matrix_mix_sum(self, X, Y=None):
         # this adapts the output of the rbf_kernel function (pairwise evaluations of Gaussian kernels k(x,y))

quapy/method/aggregative.py

@@ -163,6 +163,7 @@ class AggregativeQuantifier(BaseQuantifier, ABC):
 
         :param X: array-like of shape `(n_samples, n_features)`, the training instances
         :param y: array-like of shape `(n_samples,)`, the labels
+        :return: a tuple (predictions, labels)
         """
         self._check_classifier(adapt_if_necessary=self.fit_classifier)
 
@@ -673,7 +674,7 @@ class PACC(AggregativeSoftQuantifier):
 class EMQ(AggregativeSoftQuantifier):
     """
     `Expectation Maximization for Quantification <https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/6789744>`_ (EMQ),
-    aka `Saerens-Latinne-Decaestecker` (SLD) algorithm.
+    aka `Saerens-Latinne-Decaestecker` (SLD) algorithm, or `Maximum Likelihood Label Shif` (MLLS).
     EMQ consists of using the well-known `Expectation Maximization algorithm` to iteratively update the posterior
     probabilities generated by a probabilistic classifier and the class prevalence estimates obtained via
     maximum-likelihood estimation, in a mutually recursive way, until convergence.

quapy/method/confidence.py

@@ -1,19 +1,24 @@
+from numbers import Number
+from typing import Iterable
+
 import numpy as np
+from joblib import Parallel, delayed
 from sklearn.base import BaseEstimator
 from sklearn.metrics import confusion_matrix
 
 import quapy as qp
 import quapy.functional as F
+from quapy.functional import CompositionalTransformation, CLRtransformation, ILRtransformation
 from quapy.method import _bayesian
-from quapy.method.aggregative import AggregativeCrispQuantifier
 from quapy.data import LabelledCollection
-from quapy.method.aggregative import AggregativeQuantifier
+from quapy.method.aggregative import AggregativeQuantifier, AggregativeCrispQuantifier, AggregativeSoftQuantifier, BinaryAggregativeQuantifier
 from scipy.stats import chi2
 from sklearn.utils import resample
 from abc import ABC, abstractmethod
-from scipy.special import softmax, factorial
+from scipy.special import factorial
 import copy
 from functools import lru_cache
+from tqdm import tqdm
 
 """
 This module provides implementation of different types of confidence regions, and the implementation of Bootstrap
@@ -80,28 +85,92 @@ class ConfidenceRegionABC(ABC):
         proportion = np.clip(self.coverage(uniform_simplex), 0., 1.)
         return proportion
 
+    @property
+    @abstractmethod
+    def samples(self):
+        """ Returns internal samples """
+        ...
+
+    def __contains__(self, p):
+        """
+        Overloads in operator, checks if `p` is contained in the region
+
+        :param p: array-like
+        :return: boolean
+        """
+        p = np.asarray(p)
+        assert p.ndim==1, f'unexpected shape for point parameter'
+        return self.coverage(p)==1.
+
+    def closest_point_in_region(self, p, tol=1e-6, max_iter=30):
+        """
+        Finds the closes point to p that belongs to the region. Assumes the region is convex.
+
+        :param p: array-like, the point
+        :param tol: float, error tolerance
+        :param max_iter: int, max number of iterations
+        :returns: array-like, the closes point to p in the segment between p and the center of the region, that
+            belongs to the region
+        """
+        p = np.asarray(p, dtype=float)
+
+        # if p in region, returns p itself
+        if p in self:
+            return p.copy()
+
+        # center of the region
+        c = self.point_estimate()
+
+        # binary search in [0,1], interpolation parameter
+        # low=closest to p, high=closest to c
+        low, high = 0.0, 1.0
+        for _ in range(max_iter):
+            mid = 0.5 * (low + high)
+            x = p*(1-mid) + c*mid
+            if x in self:
+                high = mid
+            else:
+                low = mid
+            if high - low < tol:
+                break
+
+        in_boundary = p*(1-high) + c*high
+        return in_boundary
+
 
 class WithConfidenceABC(ABC):
     """
     Abstract class for confidence regions.
     """
-    METHODS = ['intervals', 'ellipse', 'ellipse-clr']
+    REGION_TYPE = ['intervals', 'ellipse', 'ellipse-clr', 'ellipse-ilr']
 
     @abstractmethod
-    def quantify_conf(self, instances, confidence_level=None) -> (np.ndarray, ConfidenceRegionABC):
+    def predict_conf(self, instances, confidence_level=0.95) -> (np.ndarray, ConfidenceRegionABC):
         """
-        Adds the method `quantify_conf` to the interface. This method returns not only the point-estimate, but
+        Adds the method `predict_conf` to the interface. This method returns not only the point-estimate, but
         also the confidence region around it.
 
         :param instances: a np.ndarray of shape (n_instances, n_features,)
-        :confidence_level: float in (0, 1)
+        :param confidence_level: float in (0, 1), default is 0.95
         :return: a tuple (`point_estimate`, `conf_region`), where `point_estimate` is a np.ndarray of shape
             (n_classes,) and  `conf_region` is an object from :class:`ConfidenceRegionABC`
         """
         ...
 
+    def quantify_conf(self, instances, confidence_level=0.95) -> (np.ndarray, ConfidenceRegionABC):
+        """
+        Alias to `predict_conf`. This method returns not only the point-estimate, but
+        also the confidence region around it.
+
+        :param instances: a np.ndarray of shape (n_instances, n_features,)
+        :param confidence_level: float in (0, 1), default is 0.95
+        :return: a tuple (`point_estimate`, `conf_region`), where `point_estimate` is a np.ndarray of shape
+            (n_classes,) and  `conf_region` is an object from :class:`ConfidenceRegionABC`
+        """
+        return self.predict_conf(instances=instances, confidence_level=confidence_level)
+
     @classmethod
-    def construct_region(cls, prev_estims, confidence_level=0.95, method='intervals'):
+    def construct_region(cls, prev_estims, confidence_level=0.95, method='intervals')->ConfidenceRegionABC:
         """
         Construct a confidence region given many prevalence estimations.
 
@@ -119,6 +188,8 @@ class WithConfidenceABC(ABC):
             region = ConfidenceEllipseSimplex(prev_estims, confidence_level=confidence_level)
         elif method == 'ellipse-clr':
             region = ConfidenceEllipseCLR(prev_estims, confidence_level=confidence_level)
+        elif method == 'ellipse-ilr':
+            region = ConfidenceEllipseILR(prev_estims, confidence_level=confidence_level)
 
         if region is None:
             raise NotImplementedError(f'unknown method {method}')
@@ -136,7 +207,7 @@ def simplex_volume(n):
     return 1 / factorial(n)
 
 
-def within_ellipse_prop(values, mean, prec_matrix, chi2_critical):
+def within_ellipse_prop__(values, mean, prec_matrix, chi2_critical):
     """
     Checks the proportion of values that belong to the ellipse with center `mean` and precision matrix `prec_matrix`
     at a distance `chi2_critical`.
@@ -169,110 +240,126 @@ def within_ellipse_prop(values, mean, prec_matrix, chi2_critical):
     return within_elipse * 1.0
 
 
-class ConfidenceEllipseSimplex(ConfidenceRegionABC):
+def within_ellipse_prop(values, mean, prec_matrix, chi2_critical):
     """
-    Instantiates a Confidence Ellipse in the probability simplex.
+        Checks the proportion of values that belong to the ellipse with center `mean` and precision matrix `prec_matrix`
+        at a distance `chi2_critical`.
 
-    :param X: np.ndarray of shape (n_bootstrap_samples, n_classes)
-    :param confidence_level: float, the confidence level (default 0.95)
+        :param values: a np.ndarray of shape (n_dim,) or (n_values, n_dim,)
+        :param mean: a np.ndarray of shape (n_dim,) with the center of the ellipse
+        :param prec_matrix: a np.ndarray with the precision matrix (inverse of the
+            covariance matrix) of the ellipse. If this inverse cannot be computed
+            then None must be passed
+        :param chi2_critical: float, the chi2 critical value
+
+        :return: float in [0,1], the fraction of values that are contained in the ellipse
+            defined by the mean (center), the precision matrix (shape), and the chi2_critical value (distance).
+            If `values` is only one value, then either 0. (not contained) or 1. (contained) is returned.
+        """
+    if prec_matrix is None:
+        return 0.
+
+    values = np.atleast_2d(values)
+    diff = values - mean
+    d_M_squared = np.sum(diff @ prec_matrix * diff, axis=-1)
+    within_ellipse = d_M_squared <= chi2_critical
+
+    if len(within_ellipse) == 1:
+        return float(within_ellipse[0])
+    else:
+        return float(np.mean(within_ellipse))
+
+
+def closest_point_on_ellipsoid(p, mean, cov, chi2_critical, tol=1e-9, max_iter=100):
+    """
+    Computes the closest point on the ellipsoid defined by:
+        (x - mean)^T cov^{-1} (x - mean) = chi2_critical
     """
 
-    def __init__(self, X, confidence_level=0.95):
+    p = np.asarray(p)
+    mean = np.asarray(mean)
+    Sigma = np.asarray(cov)
 
-        assert 0. < confidence_level < 1., f'{confidence_level=} must be in range(0,1)'
+    # Precompute precision matrix
+    P = np.linalg.pinv(Sigma)
+    d = P.shape[0]
 
-        X = np.asarray(X)
+    # Define v = p - mean
+    v = p - mean
 
-        self.mean_ = X.mean(axis=0)
-        self.cov_ = np.cov(X, rowvar=False, ddof=1)
+    # If p is inside the ellipsoid, return p itself
+    M_dist = v @ P @ v
+    if M_dist <= chi2_critical:
+        return p.copy()
 
-        try:
-            self.precision_matrix_ = np.linalg.inv(self.cov_)
-        except:
-            self.precision_matrix_ = None
+    # Function to compute x(lambda)
+    def x_lambda(lmbda):
+        A = np.eye(d) + lmbda * P
+        return mean + np.linalg.solve(A, v)
 
-        self.dim = X.shape[-1]
-        self.ddof = self.dim - 1
+    # Function whose root we want: f(lambda) = Mahalanobis distance - chi2
+    def f(lmbda):
+        x = x_lambda(lmbda)
+        diff = x - mean
+        return diff @ P @ diff - chi2_critical
 
-        # critical chi-square value
-        self.confidence_level = confidence_level
-        self.chi2_critical_ = chi2.ppf(confidence_level, df=self.ddof)
+    # Bisection search over lambda >= 0
+    l_low, l_high = 0.0, 1.0
 
-    def point_estimate(self):
-        """
-        Returns the point estimate, the center of the ellipse.
+    # Increase high until f(high) < 0
+    while f(l_high) > 0:
+        l_high *= 2
+        if l_high > 1e12:
+            raise RuntimeError("Failed to bracket the root.")
 
-        :return: np.ndarray of shape (n_classes,)
-        """
-        return self.mean_
+    # Bisection
+    for _ in range(max_iter):
+        l_mid = 0.5 * (l_low + l_high)
+        fm = f(l_mid)
+        if abs(fm) < tol:
+            break
+        if fm > 0:
+            l_low = l_mid
+        else:
+            l_high = l_mid
 
-    def coverage(self, true_value):
-        """
-        Checks whether a value, or a sets of values, are contained in the confidence region. The method computes the
-        fraction of these that are contained in the region, if more than one value is passed. If only one value is
-        passed, then it either returns 1.0 or 0.0, for indicating the value is in the region or not, respectively.
-
-        :param true_value: a np.ndarray of shape (n_classes,) or shape (n_values, n_classes,)
-        :return: float in [0,1]
-        """
-        return within_ellipse_prop(true_value, self.mean_, self.precision_matrix_, self.chi2_critical_)
-
-
-class ConfidenceEllipseCLR(ConfidenceRegionABC):
-    """
-    Instantiates a Confidence Ellipse in the Centered-Log Ratio (CLR) space.
-
-    :param X: np.ndarray of shape (n_bootstrap_samples, n_classes)
-    :param confidence_level: float, the confidence level (default 0.95)
-    """
-
-    def __init__(self, X, confidence_level=0.95):
-        self.clr = CLRtransformation()
-        Z = self.clr(X)
-        self.mean_ = np.mean(X, axis=0)
-        self.conf_region_clr = ConfidenceEllipseSimplex(Z, confidence_level=confidence_level)
-
-    def point_estimate(self):
-        """
-        Returns the point estimate, the center of the ellipse.
-
-        :return: np.ndarray of shape (n_classes,)
-        """
-        # The inverse of the CLR does not coincide with the true mean, because the geometric mean
-        # requires smoothing the prevalence vectors and this affects the softmax (inverse);
-        # return self.clr.inverse(self.mean_) # <- does not coincide
-        return self.mean_
-
-    def coverage(self, true_value):
-        """
-        Checks whether a value, or a sets of values, are contained in the confidence region. The method computes the
-        fraction of these that are contained in the region, if more than one value is passed. If only one value is
-        passed, then it either returns 1.0 or 0.0, for indicating the value is in the region or not, respectively.
-
-        :param true_value: a np.ndarray of shape (n_classes,) or shape (n_values, n_classes,)
-        :return: float in [0,1]
-        """
-        transformed_values = self.clr(true_value)
-        return self.conf_region_clr.coverage(transformed_values)
+    l_opt = l_mid
+    return x_lambda(l_opt)
 
 
 class ConfidenceIntervals(ConfidenceRegionABC):
     """
     Instantiates a region based on (independent) Confidence Intervals.
 
-    :param X: np.ndarray of shape (n_bootstrap_samples, n_classes)
+    :param samples: np.ndarray of shape (n_bootstrap_samples, n_classes)
     :param confidence_level: float, the confidence level (default 0.95)
+    :param bonferroni_correction: bool (default False), if True, a Bonferroni correction
+        is applied to the significance level (`alpha`) before computing confidence intervals.
+        The correction consists of replacing `alpha` with `alpha/n_classes`. When
+        `n_classes=2` the correction is not applied because there is only one verification test
+        since the other class is constrained. This is not necessarily true for n_classes>2.
     """
-    def __init__(self, X, confidence_level=0.95):
+    def __init__(self, samples, confidence_level=0.95, bonferroni_correction=False):
         assert 0 < confidence_level < 1, f'{confidence_level=} must be in range(0,1)'
+        assert samples.ndim == 2, 'unexpected shape; must be (n_bootstrap_samples, n_classes)'
 
-        X = np.asarray(X)
+        samples = np.asarray(samples)
 
-        self.means_ = X.mean(axis=0)
+        self.means_ = samples.mean(axis=0)
         alpha = 1-confidence_level
+        if bonferroni_correction:
+            n_classes = samples.shape[-1]
+            if n_classes>2:
+                alpha = alpha/n_classes
         low_perc = (alpha/2.)*100
         high_perc = (1-alpha/2.)*100
-        self.I_low, self.I_high = np.percentile(X, q=[low_perc, high_perc], axis=0)
+        self.I_low, self.I_high = np.percentile(samples, q=[low_perc, high_perc], axis=0)
+        self._samples = samples
+        self.alpha = alpha
+
+    @property
+    def samples(self):
+        return self._samples
 
     def point_estimate(self):
         """
@@ -297,33 +384,275 @@ class ConfidenceIntervals(ConfidenceRegionABC):
 
         return proportion
 
+    def coverage_soft(self, true_value):
+        within_intervals = np.logical_and(self.I_low <= true_value, true_value <= self.I_high)
+        return np.mean(within_intervals.astype(float))
 
-class CLRtransformation:
-    """
-    Centered log-ratio, from component analysis
-    """
-    def __call__(self, X, epsilon=1e-6):
-        """
-        Applies the CLR function to X thus mapping the instances, which are contained in `\\mathcal{R}^{n}` but
-        actually lie on a `\\mathcal{R}^{n-1}` simplex, onto an unrestricted space in :math:`\\mathcal{R}^{n}`
+    def __repr__(self):
+        return '['+', '.join(f'({low:.4f}, {high:.4f})' for (low,high) in zip(self.I_low, self.I_high))+']'
 
-        :param X: np.ndarray of (n_instances, n_dimensions) to be transformed
-        :param epsilon: small float for prevalence smoothing
-        :return: np.ndarray of (n_instances, n_dimensions), the CLR-transformed points
-        """
-        X = np.asarray(X)
-        X = qp.error.smooth(X, epsilon)
-        G = np.exp(np.mean(np.log(X), axis=-1, keepdims=True))  # geometric mean
-        return np.log(X / G)
+    @property
+    def n_dim(self):
+        return len(self.I_low)
 
-    def inverse(self, X):
-        """
-        Inverse function. However, clr.inverse(clr(X)) does not exactly coincide with X due to smoothing.
+    def winkler_scores(self, true_prev, alpha=None, add_ae=False):
+        true_prev = np.asarray(true_prev)
+        assert true_prev.ndim == 1, 'unexpected dimensionality for true_prev'
+        assert len(true_prev)==self.n_dim, \
+            f'unexpected number of dimensions; found {true_prev.ndim}, expected {self.n_dim}'
 
-        :param X: np.ndarray of (n_instances, n_dimensions) to be transformed
-        :return: np.ndarray of (n_instances, n_dimensions), the CLR-transformed points
+        def winkler_score(low, high, true_val, alpha, center):
+            amp = high-low
+            scale_cost = 2./alpha
+            cost = np.max([0, low-true_val], axis=0) + np.max([0, true_val-high], axis=0)
+            err = 0
+            if add_ae:
+                err = abs(true_val - center)
+            return amp + scale_cost*cost + err
+
+        alpha = alpha or self.alpha
+        return np.asarray(
+            [winkler_score(low_i, high_i, true_v, alpha, center)
+                for (low_i, high_i, true_v, center) in zip(self.I_low, self.I_high, true_prev, self.point_estimate())]
+        )
+
+    def mean_winkler_score(self, true_prev, alpha=None, add_ae=False):
+        return np.mean(self.winkler_scores(true_prev, alpha=alpha, add_ae=add_ae))
+
+
+
+class ConfidenceEllipseSimplex(ConfidenceRegionABC):
     """
-        return softmax(X, axis=-1)
+    Instantiates a Confidence Ellipse in the probability simplex.
+
+    :param samples: np.ndarray of shape (n_bootstrap_samples, n_classes)
+    :param confidence_level: float, the confidence level (default 0.95)
+    """
+
+    def __init__(self, samples, confidence_level=0.95):
+
+        assert 0. < confidence_level < 1., f'{confidence_level=} must be in range(0,1)'
+
+        samples = np.asarray(samples)
+
+        self.mean_ = samples.mean(axis=0)
+        self.cov_ = np.cov(samples, rowvar=False, ddof=1)
+
+        try:
+            self.precision_matrix_ = np.linalg.pinv(self.cov_)
+        except:
+            self.precision_matrix_ = None
+
+        self.dim = samples.shape[-1]
+        self.ddof = self.dim - 1
+
+        # critical chi-square value
+        self.confidence_level = confidence_level
+        self.chi2_critical_ = chi2.ppf(confidence_level, df=self.ddof)
+        self._samples = samples
+        self.alpha = 1.-confidence_level
+
+    @property
+    def samples(self):
+        return self._samples
+
+    def point_estimate(self):
+        """
+        Returns the point estimate, the center of the ellipse.
+
+        :return: np.ndarray of shape (n_classes,)
+        """
+        return self.mean_
+
+    def coverage(self, true_value):
+        """
+        Checks whether a value, or a sets of values, are contained in the confidence region. The method computes the
+        fraction of these that are contained in the region, if more than one value is passed. If only one value is
+        passed, then it either returns 1.0 or 0.0, for indicating the value is in the region or not, respectively.
+
+        :param true_value: a np.ndarray of shape (n_classes,) or shape (n_values, n_classes,)
+        :return: float in [0,1]
+        """
+        return within_ellipse_prop(true_value, self.mean_, self.precision_matrix_, self.chi2_critical_)
+
+    def closest_point_in_region(self, p, tol=1e-6, max_iter=30):
+        return closest_point_on_ellipsoid(
+            p,
+            mean=self.mean_,
+            cov=self.cov_,
+            chi2_critical=self.chi2_critical_
+        )
+
+
+class ConfidenceEllipseTransformed(ConfidenceRegionABC):
+    """
+    Instantiates a Confidence Ellipse in a transformed space.
+
+    :param samples: np.ndarray of shape (n_bootstrap_samples, n_classes)
+    :param confidence_level: float, the confidence level (default 0.95)
+    """
+
+    def __init__(self, samples, transformation: CompositionalTransformation, confidence_level=0.95):
+        samples = np.asarray(samples)
+        self.transformation = transformation
+        Z = self.transformation(samples)
+        self.mean_ = np.mean(samples, axis=0)
+        # self.mean_ = self.transformation.inverse(np.mean(Z, axis=0))
+        self.conf_region_z = ConfidenceEllipseSimplex(Z, confidence_level=confidence_level)
+        self._samples = samples
+        self.alpha = 1.-confidence_level
+
+    @property
+    def samples(self):
+        return self._samples
+
+    def point_estimate(self):
+        """
+        Returns the point estimate, the center of the ellipse.
+
+        :return: np.ndarray of shape (n_classes,)
+        """
+        # The inverse of the CLR does not coincide with the true mean, because the geometric mean
+        # requires smoothing the prevalence vectors and this affects the softmax (inverse);
+        # return self.clr.inverse(self.mean_) # <- does not coincide
+        return self.mean_
+
+    def coverage(self, true_value):
+        """
+        Checks whether a value, or a sets of values, are contained in the confidence region. The method computes the
+        fraction of these that are contained in the region, if more than one value is passed. If only one value is
+        passed, then it either returns 1.0 or 0.0, for indicating the value is in the region or not, respectively.
+
+        :param true_value: a np.ndarray of shape (n_classes,) or shape (n_values, n_classes,)
+        :return: float in [0,1]
+        """
+        transformed_values = self.transformation(true_value)
+        return self.conf_region_z.coverage(transformed_values)
+
+    def closest_point_in_region(self, p, tol=1e-6, max_iter=30):
+        p_prime = self.transformation(p)
+        b_prime = self.conf_region_z.closest_point_in_region(p_prime, tol=tol, max_iter=max_iter)
+        b = self.transformation.inverse(b_prime)
+        return b
+
+
+class ConfidenceEllipseCLR(ConfidenceEllipseTransformed):
+    """
+    Instantiates a Confidence Ellipse in the Centered-Log Ratio (CLR) space.
+
+    :param samples: np.ndarray of shape (n_bootstrap_samples, n_classes)
+    :param confidence_level: float, the confidence level (default 0.95)
+    """
+    def __init__(self, samples, confidence_level=0.95):
+        super().__init__(samples, CLRtransformation(), confidence_level=confidence_level)
+
+
+class ConfidenceEllipseILR(ConfidenceEllipseTransformed):
+    """
+    Instantiates a Confidence Ellipse in the Isometric-Log Ratio (CLR) space.
+
+    :param samples: np.ndarray of shape (n_bootstrap_samples, n_classes)
+    :param confidence_level: float, the confidence level (default 0.95)
+    """
+    def __init__(self, samples, confidence_level=0.95):
+        super().__init__(samples, ILRtransformation(), confidence_level=confidence_level)
+
+
+
+class ConfidenceIntervalsTransformed(ConfidenceRegionABC):
+    """
+    Instantiates a Confidence Interval region in a transformed space.
+
+    :param samples: np.ndarray of shape (n_bootstrap_samples, n_classes)
+    :param confidence_level: float, the confidence level (default 0.95)
+    :param bonferroni_correction: bool (default False), if True, a Bonferroni correction
+        is applied to the significance level (`alpha`) before computing confidence intervals.
+        The correction consists of replacing `alpha` with `alpha/n_classes`. When
+        `n_classes=2` the correction is not applied because there is only one verification test
+        since the other class is constrained. This is not necessarily true for n_classes>2.
+    """
+
+    def __init__(self, samples, transformation: CompositionalTransformation, confidence_level=0.95, bonferroni_correction=False):
+        samples = np.asarray(samples)
+        self.transformation = transformation
+        Z = self.transformation(samples)
+        self.mean_ = np.mean(samples, axis=0)
+        # self.mean_ = self.transformation.inverse(np.mean(Z, axis=0))
+        self.conf_region_z = ConfidenceIntervals(Z, confidence_level=confidence_level, bonferroni_correction=bonferroni_correction)
+        self._samples = samples
+        self.alpha = 1.-confidence_level
+
+    @property
+    def samples(self):
+        return self._samples
+
+    def point_estimate(self):
+        """
+        Returns the point estimate, the center of the ellipse.
+
+        :return: np.ndarray of shape (n_classes,)
+        """
+        # The inverse of the CLR does not coincide with the true mean, because the geometric mean
+        # requires smoothing the prevalence vectors and this affects the softmax (inverse);
+        # return self.clr.inverse(self.mean_) # <- does not coincide
+        return self.mean_
+
+    def coverage(self, true_value):
+        """
+        Checks whether a value, or a sets of values, are contained in the confidence region. The method computes the
+        fraction of these that are contained in the region, if more than one value is passed. If only one value is
+        passed, then it either returns 1.0 or 0.0, for indicating the value is in the region or not, respectively.
+
+        :param true_value: a np.ndarray of shape (n_classes,) or shape (n_values, n_classes,)
+        :return: float in [0,1]
+        """
+        transformed_values = self.transformation(true_value)
+        return self.conf_region_z.coverage(transformed_values)
+
+    def coverage_soft(self, true_value):
+        transformed_values = self.transformation(true_value)
+        return self.conf_region_z.coverage_soft(transformed_values)
+
+    def winkler_scores(self, true_prev, alpha=None, add_ae=False):
+        transformed_values = self.transformation(true_prev)
+        return self.conf_region_z.winkler_scores(transformed_values, alpha=alpha, add_ae=add_ae)
+
+    def mean_winkler_score(self, true_prev, alpha=None, add_ae=False):
+        transformed_values = self.transformation(true_prev)
+        return self.conf_region_z.mean_winkler_score(transformed_values, alpha=alpha, add_ae=add_ae)
+
+
+class ConfidenceIntervalsCLR(ConfidenceIntervalsTransformed):
+    """
+    Instantiates a Confidence Intervals in the Centered-Log Ratio (CLR) space.
+
+    :param samples: np.ndarray of shape (n_bootstrap_samples, n_classes)
+    :param confidence_level: float, the confidence level (default 0.95)
+    :param bonferroni_correction: bool (default False), if True, a Bonferroni correction
+        is applied to the significance level (`alpha`) before computing confidence intervals.
+        The correction consists of replacing `alpha` with `alpha/n_classes`. When
+        `n_classes=2` the correction is not applied because there is only one verification test
+        since the other class is constrained. This is not necessarily true for n_classes>2.
+    """
+    def __init__(self, samples, confidence_level=0.95, bonferroni_correction=False):
+        super().__init__(samples, CLRtransformation(), confidence_level=confidence_level, bonferroni_correction=bonferroni_correction)
+
+
+class ConfidenceIntervalsILR(ConfidenceIntervalsTransformed):
+    """
+    Instantiates a Confidence Intervals in the Isometric-Log Ratio (CLR) space.
+
+    :param samples: np.ndarray of shape (n_bootstrap_samples, n_classes)
+    :param confidence_level: float, the confidence level (default 0.95)
+    :param bonferroni_correction: bool (default False), if True, a Bonferroni correction
+        is applied to the significance level (`alpha`) before computing confidence intervals.
+        The correction consists of replacing `alpha` with `alpha/n_classes`. When
+        `n_classes=2` the correction is not applied because there is only one verification test
+        since the other class is constrained. This is not necessarily true for n_classes>2.
+    """
+    def __init__(self, samples, confidence_level=0.95, bonferroni_correction=False):
+        super().__init__(samples, ILRtransformation(), confidence_level=confidence_level, bonferroni_correction=bonferroni_correction)
+
 
 
 class AggregativeBootstrap(WithConfidenceABC, AggregativeQuantifier):
@@ -339,6 +668,12 @@ class AggregativeBootstrap(WithConfidenceABC, AggregativeQuantifier):
 
     During inference, the bootstrap repetitions are applied to the pre-classified test instances.
 
+    See
+    `Moreo, A., Salvati, N.
+    An Efficient Method for Deriving Confidence Intervals in Aggregative Quantification.
+    Learning to Quantify: Methods and Applications (LQ 2025), co-located at ECML-PKDD 2025.
+    pp 12-33 <https://lq-2025.github.io/proceedings/CompleteVolume.pdf>`_
+
     :param quantifier: an aggregative quantifier
     :para n_train_samples: int, the number of training resamplings (defaults to 1, set to > 1 to activate a
         model-based bootstrap approach)
@@ -357,7 +692,8 @@ class AggregativeBootstrap(WithConfidenceABC, AggregativeQuantifier):
                  n_test_samples=500,
                  confidence_level=0.95,
                  region='intervals',
-                 random_state=None):
+                 random_state=None,
+                 verbose=False):
 
         assert isinstance(quantifier, AggregativeQuantifier), \
             f'base quantifier does not seem to be an instance of {AggregativeQuantifier.__name__}'
@@ -374,15 +710,28 @@ class AggregativeBootstrap(WithConfidenceABC, AggregativeQuantifier):
         self.confidence_level = confidence_level
         self.region = region
         self.random_state = random_state
+        self.verbose = verbose
 
     def aggregation_fit(self, classif_predictions, labels):
-        data = LabelledCollection(classif_predictions, labels, classes=self.classes_)
+
         self.quantifiers = []
         if self.n_train_samples==1:
             self.quantifier.aggregation_fit(classif_predictions, labels)
             self.quantifiers.append(self.quantifier)
+        else:
+            if classif_predictions is None or labels is None:
+                # The entire dataset was consumed for classifier training, implying there is no need for training
+                # an aggregation function. If the bootstrap method was configured to train different aggregators
+                # (i.e., self.n_train_samples>1), then an error is raise. Otherwise, the method ends.
+                if self.n_train_samples > 1:
+                    raise ValueError(
+                        f'The underlying quantifier ({self.quantifier.__class__.__name__}) has consumed, all training '
+                        f'data, meaning the aggregation function needs none, but {self.n_train_samples=} is > 1, which '
+                        f'is inconsistent.'
+                    )
             else:
                 # model-based bootstrap (only on the aggregative part)
+                data = LabelledCollection(classif_predictions, labels, classes=self.classes_)
                 n_examples = len(data)
                 full_index = np.arange(n_examples)
                 with qp.util.temp_seed(self.random_state):
@@ -399,7 +748,7 @@ class AggregativeBootstrap(WithConfidenceABC, AggregativeQuantifier):
         prev_mean, self.confidence = self.aggregate_conf(classif_predictions)
         return prev_mean
 
-    def aggregate_conf(self, classif_predictions: np.ndarray, confidence_level=None):
+    def aggregate_conf_sequential__(self, classif_predictions: np.ndarray, confidence_level=None):
         if confidence_level is None:
             confidence_level = self.confidence_level
 
@@ -407,7 +756,7 @@ class AggregativeBootstrap(WithConfidenceABC, AggregativeQuantifier):
         prevs = []
         with qp.util.temp_seed(self.random_state):
             for quantifier in self.quantifiers:
-                for i in range(self.n_test_samples):
+                for i in tqdm(range(self.n_test_samples), desc='resampling', total=self.n_test_samples, disable=not self.verbose):
                     sample_i = resample(classif_predictions, n_samples=n_samples)
                     prev_i = quantifier.aggregate(sample_i)
                     prevs.append(prev_i)
@@ -417,13 +766,33 @@ class AggregativeBootstrap(WithConfidenceABC, AggregativeQuantifier):
 
         return prev_estim, conf
 
+    def aggregate_conf(self, classif_predictions: np.ndarray, confidence_level=None):
+        confidence_level = confidence_level or self.confidence_level
+
+
+        n_samples = classif_predictions.shape[0]
+        prevs = []
+        with qp.util.temp_seed(self.random_state):
+            for quantifier in self.quantifiers:
+                results = Parallel(n_jobs=-1)(
+                    delayed(bootstrap_once)(i, classif_predictions, quantifier, n_samples)
+                    for i in range(self.n_test_samples)
+                )
+                prevs.extend(results)
+
+        prevs = np.array(prevs)
+        conf = WithConfidenceABC.construct_region(prevs, confidence_level, method=self.region)
+        prev_estim = conf.point_estimate()
+
+        return prev_estim, conf
+
     def fit(self, X, y):
         self.quantifier._check_init_parameters()
         classif_predictions, labels = self.quantifier.classifier_fit_predict(X, y)
         self.aggregation_fit(classif_predictions, labels)
         return self
 
-    def quantify_conf(self, instances, confidence_level=None) -> (np.ndarray, ConfidenceRegionABC):
+    def predict_conf(self, instances, confidence_level=None) -> (np.ndarray, ConfidenceRegionABC):
         predictions = self.quantifier.classify(instances)
         return self.aggregate_conf(predictions, confidence_level=confidence_level)
 
@@ -435,9 +804,16 @@ class AggregativeBootstrap(WithConfidenceABC, AggregativeQuantifier):
         return self.quantifier._classifier_method()
 
 
+def bootstrap_once(i, classif_predictions, quantifier, n_samples):
+    idx = np.random.randint(0, len(classif_predictions), n_samples)
+    sample = classif_predictions[idx]
+    prev = quantifier.aggregate(sample)
+    return prev
+
+
 class BayesianCC(AggregativeCrispQuantifier, WithConfidenceABC):
     """
-    `Bayesian quantification <https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.09159>`_ method,
+    `Bayesian quantification <https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.09159>`_ method (by Albert Ziegler and Paweł Czyż),
     which is a variant of :class:`ACC` that calculates the posterior probability distribution
     over the prevalence vectors, rather than providing a point estimate obtained
     by matrix inversion.
@@ -464,6 +840,8 @@ class BayesianCC(AggregativeCrispQuantifier, WithConfidenceABC):
     :param region: string, set to `intervals` for constructing confidence intervals (default), or to
         `ellipse` for constructing an ellipse in the probability simplex, or to `ellipse-clr` for
         constructing an ellipse in the Centered-Log Ratio (CLR) unconstrained space.
+    :param prior: an array-list with the alpha parameters of a Dirichlet prior, or the string 'uniform'
+        for a uniform, uninformative prior (default)
     """
     def __init__(self,
                  classifier: BaseEstimator=None,
@@ -473,12 +851,17 @@ class BayesianCC(AggregativeCrispQuantifier, WithConfidenceABC):
                  num_samples: int = 1_000,
                  mcmc_seed: int = 0,
                  confidence_level: float = 0.95,
-                 region: str = 'intervals'):
+                 region: str = 'intervals',
+                 temperature = 1., 
+                 prior = 'uniform'):
 
         if num_warmup <= 0:
             raise ValueError(f'parameter {num_warmup=} must be a positive integer')
         if num_samples <= 0:
             raise ValueError(f'parameter {num_samples=} must be a positive integer')
+        assert ((isinstance(prior, str) and prior == 'uniform') or
+                (isinstance(prior, Iterable) and all(isinstance(v, Number) for v in prior))), \
+            f'wrong type for {prior=}; expected "uniform" or an array-like of real values'
 
         if _bayesian.DEPENDENCIES_INSTALLED is False:
             raise ImportError("Auxiliary dependencies are required. "
@@ -490,6 +873,8 @@ class BayesianCC(AggregativeCrispQuantifier, WithConfidenceABC):
         self.mcmc_seed = mcmc_seed
         self.confidence_level = confidence_level
         self.region = region
+        self.temperature = temperature
+        self.prior = prior
 
         # Array of shape (n_classes, n_predicted_classes,) where entry (y, c) is the number of instances
         # labeled as class y and predicted as class c.
@@ -520,11 +905,19 @@ class BayesianCC(AggregativeCrispQuantifier, WithConfidenceABC):
 
         n_c_unlabeled = F.counts_from_labels(classif_predictions, self.classifier.classes_).astype(float)
 
-        self._samples = _bayesian.sample_posterior(
+        n_classes = len(self.classifier.classes_)
+        if isinstance(self.prior, str) and self.prior == 'uniform':
+            alpha = np.asarray([1.] * n_classes)
+        else:
+            alpha = np.asarray(self.prior)
+
+        self._samples = _bayesian.sample_posterior_bayesianCC(
             n_c_unlabeled=n_c_unlabeled,
             n_y_and_c_labeled=self._n_and_c_labeled,
             num_warmup=self.num_warmup,
             num_samples=self.num_samples,
+            alpha=alpha,
+            temperature=self.temperature,
             seed=self.mcmc_seed,
         )
         return self._samples
@@ -543,9 +936,115 @@ class BayesianCC(AggregativeCrispQuantifier, WithConfidenceABC):
         samples = self.sample_from_posterior(classif_predictions)[_bayesian.P_TEST_Y]
         return np.asarray(samples.mean(axis=0), dtype=float)
 
-    def quantify_conf(self, instances, confidence_level=None) -> (np.ndarray, ConfidenceRegionABC):
+    def predict_conf(self, instances, confidence_level=None) -> (np.ndarray, ConfidenceRegionABC):
+        if confidence_level is None:
+            confidence_level = self.confidence_level
         classif_predictions = self.classify(instances)
         point_estimate = self.aggregate(classif_predictions)
         samples = self.get_prevalence_samples()  # available after calling "aggregate" function
-        region = WithConfidenceABC.construct_region(samples, confidence_level=self.confidence_level, method=self.region)
+        region = WithConfidenceABC.construct_region(samples, confidence_level=confidence_level, method=self.region)
         return point_estimate, region
+    
+
+class PQ(AggregativeSoftQuantifier, BinaryAggregativeQuantifier):
+    """
+    `Precise Quantifier: Bayesian distribution matching quantifier <https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.06061>,
+    which is a variant of :class:`HDy` that calculates the posterior probability distribution
+    over the prevalence vectors, rather than providing a point estimate.
+
+    This method relies on extra dependencies, which have to be installed via:
+    `$ pip install quapy[bayes]`
+
+    :param classifier: a scikit-learn's BaseEstimator, or None, in which case the classifier is taken to be
+        the one indicated in `qp.environ['DEFAULT_CLS']`
+    :param val_split:  specifies the data used for generating classifier predictions. This specification
+        can be made as float in (0, 1) indicating the proportion of stratified held-out validation set to
+        be extracted from the training set; or as an integer (default 5), indicating that the predictions
+        are to be generated in a `k`-fold cross-validation manner (with this integer indicating the value
+        for `k`); or as a tuple `(X,y)` defining the specific set of data to use for validation. Set to
+        None when the method does not require any validation data, in order to avoid that some portion of
+        the training data be wasted.
+    :param num_warmup: number of warmup iterations for the STAN sampler (default 500)
+    :param num_samples: number of samples to draw from the posterior (default 1000)
+    :param stan_seed: random seed for the STAN sampler (default 0)
+    :param region: string, set to `intervals` for constructing confidence intervals (default), or to
+        `ellipse` for constructing an ellipse in the probability simplex, or to `ellipse-clr` for
+        constructing an ellipse in the Centered-Log Ratio (CLR) unconstrained space.
+    """
+    def __init__(self,
+                 classifier: BaseEstimator=None,
+                 fit_classifier=True,
+                 val_split: int = 5,
+                 nbins: int = 4,
+                 fixed_bins: bool = False,
+                 num_warmup: int = 500,
+                 num_samples: int = 1_000,
+                 stan_seed: int = 0,
+                 confidence_level: float = 0.95,
+                 region: str = 'intervals'):
+
+        if num_warmup <= 0:
+            raise ValueError(f'parameter {num_warmup=} must be a positive integer')
+        if num_samples <= 0:
+            raise ValueError(f'parameter {num_samples=} must be a positive integer')
+
+        if not _bayesian.DEPENDENCIES_INSTALLED:
+            raise ImportError("Auxiliary dependencies are required. "
+                              "Run `$ pip install quapy[bayes]` to install them.")
+
+        super().__init__(classifier, fit_classifier, val_split)
+        
+        self.nbins = nbins
+        self.fixed_bins = fixed_bins
+        self.num_warmup = num_warmup
+        self.num_samples = num_samples
+        self.stan_seed = stan_seed
+        self.stan_code = _bayesian.load_stan_file()
+        self.confidence_level = confidence_level
+        self.region = region
+
+    def aggregation_fit(self, classif_predictions, labels):
+        y_pred = classif_predictions[:, self.pos_label]
+
+        # Compute bin limits
+        if self.fixed_bins:
+            # Uniform bins in [0,1]
+            self.bin_limits = np.linspace(0, 1, self.nbins + 1)
+        else:
+            # Quantile bins
+            self.bin_limits = np.quantile(y_pred, np.linspace(0, 1, self.nbins + 1))
+
+        # Assign each prediction to a bin
+        bin_indices = np.digitize(y_pred, self.bin_limits[1:-1], right=True)
+
+        # Positive and negative masks
+        pos_mask = (labels == self.pos_label)
+        neg_mask = ~pos_mask
+
+        # Count positives and negatives per bin
+        self.pos_hist = np.bincount(bin_indices[pos_mask], minlength=self.nbins)
+        self.neg_hist = np.bincount(bin_indices[neg_mask], minlength=self.nbins)
+
+    def aggregate(self, classif_predictions):
+        Px_test = classif_predictions[:, self.pos_label]
+        test_hist, _ = np.histogram(Px_test, bins=self.bin_limits)
+        prevs = _bayesian.pq_stan(
+            self.stan_code, self.nbins, self.pos_hist, self.neg_hist, test_hist,
+            self.num_samples, self.num_warmup, self.stan_seed
+        ).flatten()
+        self.prev_distribution = np.vstack([1-prevs, prevs]).T
+        return self.prev_distribution.mean(axis=0)
+
+    def aggregate_conf(self, predictions, confidence_level=None):
+        if confidence_level is None:
+            confidence_level = self.confidence_level
+        point_estimate = self.aggregate(predictions)
+        samples = self.prev_distribution
+        region = WithConfidenceABC.construct_region(samples, confidence_level=confidence_level, method=self.region)
+        return point_estimate, region
+
+    def predict_conf(self, instances, confidence_level=None) -> (np.ndarray, ConfidenceRegionABC):
+        predictions = self.classify(instances)
+        return self.aggregate_conf(predictions, confidence_level=confidence_level)
+
+

quapy/method/non_aggregative.py

@@ -1,11 +1,17 @@
-from typing import Union, Callable
+from itertools import product
+from tqdm import tqdm
+from typing import Union, Callable, Counter
 import numpy as np
 from sklearn.feature_extraction.text import CountVectorizer
+from sklearn.utils import resample
+from sklearn.preprocessing import normalize
 
+from quapy.method.confidence import WithConfidenceABC, ConfidenceRegionABC
 from quapy.functional import get_divergence
-from quapy.data import LabelledCollection
 from quapy.method.base import BaseQuantifier, BinaryQuantifier
 import quapy.functional as F
+from scipy.optimize import lsq_linear
+from scipy import sparse
 
 
 class MaximumLikelihoodPrevalenceEstimation(BaseQuantifier):
@@ -149,53 +155,164 @@ class DMx(BaseQuantifier):
         return F.argmin_prevalence(loss, n_classes, method=self.search)
 
 
-# class ReadMe(BaseQuantifier):
-#
-#     def __init__(self, bootstrap_trials=100, bootstrap_range=100, bagging_trials=100, bagging_range=25, **vectorizer_kwargs):
-#         raise NotImplementedError('under development ...')
-#         self.bootstrap_trials = bootstrap_trials
-#         self.bootstrap_range = bootstrap_range
-#         self.bagging_trials = bagging_trials
-#         self.bagging_range = bagging_range
-#         self.vectorizer_kwargs = vectorizer_kwargs
-#
-#     def fit(self, data: LabelledCollection):
-#         X, y = data.Xy
-#         self.vectorizer = CountVectorizer(binary=True, **self.vectorizer_kwargs)
-#         X = self.vectorizer.fit_transform(X)
-#         self.class_conditional_X = {i: X[y==i] for i in range(data.classes_)}
-#
-#     def predict(self, X):
-#         X = self.vectorizer.transform(X)
-#
-#         # number of features
-#         num_docs, num_feats = X.shape
-#
-#         # bootstrap
-#         p_boots = []
-#         for _ in range(self.bootstrap_trials):
-#             docs_idx = np.random.choice(num_docs, size=self.bootstra_range, replace=False)
-#             class_conditional_X = {i: X[docs_idx] for i, X in self.class_conditional_X.items()}
-#             Xboot = X[docs_idx]
-#
-#             # bagging
-#             p_bags = []
-#             for _ in range(self.bagging_trials):
-#                 feat_idx = np.random.choice(num_feats, size=self.bagging_range, replace=False)
-#                 class_conditional_Xbag = {i: X[:, feat_idx] for i, X in class_conditional_X.items()}
-#                 Xbag = Xboot[:,feat_idx]
-#                 p = self.std_constrained_linear_ls(Xbag, class_conditional_Xbag)
-#                 p_bags.append(p)
-#             p_boots.append(np.mean(p_bags, axis=0))
-#
-#         p_mean = np.mean(p_boots, axis=0)
-#         p_std  = np.std(p_bags, axis=0)
-#
-#         return p_mean
-#
-#
-#     def std_constrained_linear_ls(self, X, class_cond_X: dict):
-#         pass
+
+
+class ReadMe(BaseQuantifier, WithConfidenceABC):
+    """
+    ReadMe is a non-aggregative quantification system proposed by
+    `Daniel Hopkins and Gary King, 2007. A method of automated nonparametric content analysis for
+    social science. American Journal of Political Science, 54(1):229–247.
+    <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00428.x>`_.
+    The idea is to estimate `Q(Y=i)` directly from:
+
+    :math:`Q(X)=\\sum_{i=1} Q(X|Y=i) Q(Y=i)`
+
+    via least-squares regression, i.e., without incurring the cost of computing posterior probabilities.
+    However, this poses a very difficult representation in which the vector `Q(X)` and the matrix `Q(X|Y=i)`
+    can be of very high dimensions. In order to render the problem tracktable, ReadMe performs bagging in
+    the feature space. ReadMe also combines bagging with bootstrap in order to derive confidence intervals
+    around point estimations.
+
+    We use the same default parameters as in the official
+    `R implementation <https://github.com/iqss-research/ReadMeV1/blob/master/R/prototype.R>`_.
+
+    :param prob_model: str ('naive', or 'full'), selects the modality in which the probabilities `Q(X)` and
+        `Q(X|Y)` are to be modelled. Options include "full", which corresponds to the original formulation of
+        ReadMe, in which X is constrained to be a binary matrix (e.g., of term presence/absence) and in which
+        `Q(X)` and `Q(X|Y)` are modelled, respectively, as matrices of `(2^K, 1)` and `(2^K, n)` values, where
+        `K` is the number of columns in the data matrix (i.e., `bagging_range`), and `n` is the number of classes.
+        Of course, this approach is computationally prohibited for large `K`, so the computation is restricted to data
+        matrices with `K<=25` (although we recommend even smaller values of `K`). A much faster model is "naive", which
+        considers the `Q(X)` and `Q(X|Y)` be multinomial distributions under the `bag-of-words` perspective. In this
+        case, `bagging_range` can be set to much larger values. Default is "full" (i.e., original ReadMe behavior).
+    :param bootstrap_trials: int, number of bootstrap trials (default 300)
+    :param bagging_trials: int, number of bagging trials (default 300)
+    :param bagging_range: int, number of features to keep for each bagging trial (default 15)
+    :param confidence_level: float, a value in (0,1) reflecting the desired confidence level (default 0.95)
+    :param region: str in 'intervals', 'ellipse', 'ellipse-clr'; indicates the preferred method for
+        defining the confidence region (see :class:`WithConfidenceABC`)
+    :param random_state: int or None, allows replicability (default None)
+    :param verbose: bool, whether to display information during the process (default False)
+    """
+
+    MAX_FEATURES_FOR_EMPIRICAL_ESTIMATION = 25
+    PROBABILISTIC_MODELS = ["naive", "full"]
+
+    def __init__(self,
+                 prob_model="full",
+                 bootstrap_trials=300,
+                 bagging_trials=300,
+                 bagging_range=15,
+                 confidence_level=0.95,
+                 region='intervals',
+                 random_state=None,
+                 verbose=False):
+        assert prob_model in ReadMe.PROBABILISTIC_MODELS, \
+            f'unknown {prob_model=}, valid ones are {ReadMe.PROBABILISTIC_MODELS=}'
+        self.prob_model = prob_model
+        self.bootstrap_trials = bootstrap_trials
+        self.bagging_trials = bagging_trials
+        self.bagging_range = bagging_range
+        self.confidence_level = confidence_level
+        self.region = region
+        self.random_state = random_state
+        self.verbose = verbose
+
+    def fit(self, X, y):
+        self._check_matrix(X)
+
+        self.rng = np.random.default_rng(self.random_state)
+        self.classes_ = np.unique(y)
+
+
+        Xsize = X.shape[0]
+
+        # Bootstrap loop
+        self.Xboots, self.yboots = [], []
+        for _ in range(self.bootstrap_trials):
+            idx = self.rng.choice(Xsize, size=Xsize, replace=True)
+            self.Xboots.append(X[idx])
+            self.yboots.append(y[idx])
+
+        return self
+
+    def predict_conf(self, X, confidence_level=0.95) -> (np.ndarray, ConfidenceRegionABC):
+        self._check_matrix(X)
+
+        n_features = X.shape[1]
+        boots_prevalences = []
+        for Xboots, yboots in tqdm(
+                zip(self.Xboots, self.yboots),
+                desc='bootstrap predictions', total=self.bootstrap_trials, disable=not self.verbose
+        ):
+            bagging_estimates = []
+            for _ in range(self.bagging_trials):
+                feat_idx = self.rng.choice(n_features, size=self.bagging_range, replace=False)
+                Xboots_bagging = Xboots[:, feat_idx]
+                X_boots_bagging = X[:, feat_idx]
+                bagging_prev = self._quantify_iteration(Xboots_bagging, yboots, X_boots_bagging)
+                bagging_estimates.append(bagging_prev)
+
+            boots_prevalences.append(np.mean(bagging_estimates, axis=0))
+
+        conf = WithConfidenceABC.construct_region(boots_prevalences, confidence_level, method=self.region)
+        prev_estim = conf.point_estimate()
+
+        return prev_estim, conf
+
+    def predict(self, X):
+        prev_estim, _ = self.predict_conf(X)
+        return prev_estim
+
+    def _quantify_iteration(self, Xtr, ytr, Xte):
+        """Single ReadMe estimate."""
+        PX_given_Y = np.asarray([self._compute_P(Xtr[ytr == c]) for i,c in enumerate(self.classes_)])
+        PX = self._compute_P(Xte)
+
+        res = lsq_linear(A=PX_given_Y.T, b=PX, bounds=(0, 1))
+        pY = np.maximum(res.x, 0)
+        return pY / pY.sum()
+
+    def _check_matrix(self, X):
+        """the "full" model requires estimating empirical distributions; due to the high computational cost,
+                this function is only made available for binary matrices"""
+        if self.prob_model == 'full' and not self._is_binary_matrix(X):
+            raise ValueError('the empirical distribution can only be computed efficiently on binary matrices')
+
+    def _is_binary_matrix(self, X):
+        data = X.data if sparse.issparse(X) else X
+        return np.all((data == 0) | (data == 1))
+
+    def _compute_P(self, X):
+        if self.prob_model == 'naive':
+            return self._multinomial_distribution(X)
+        elif self.prob_model == 'full':
+            return self._empirical_distribution(X)
+        else:
+            raise ValueError(f'unknown {self.prob_model}; valid ones are {ReadMe.PROBABILISTIC_MODELS=}')
+
+    def _empirical_distribution(self, X):
+
+        if X.shape[1] > self.MAX_FEATURES_FOR_EMPIRICAL_ESTIMATION:
+            raise ValueError(f'the empirical distribution can only be computed efficiently for dimensions '
+                             f'less or equal than {self.MAX_FEATURES_FOR_EMPIRICAL_ESTIMATION}')
+
+        # we convert every binary row (e.g., 0 0 1 0 1) into the equivalent number (e.g., 5)
+        K = X.shape[1]
+        binary_powers = 1 << np.arange(K-1, -1, -1)  # (2^K, ..., 32, 16, 8, 4, 2, 1)
+        X_as_binary_numbers = X @ binary_powers
+
+        # count occurrences and compute probs
+        counts = np.bincount(X_as_binary_numbers, minlength=2 ** K).astype(float)
+        probs = counts / counts.sum()
+        return probs
+
+    def _multinomial_distribution(self, X):
+        PX = np.asarray(X.sum(axis=0))
+        PX = normalize(PX, norm='l1', axis=1)
+        return PX.ravel()
+
+
 
 
 def _get_features_range(X):

quapy/method/stan/pq.stan

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+data {
+  int<lower=0> n_bucket;
+  array[n_bucket] int<lower=0> train_pos;
+  array[n_bucket] int<lower=0> train_neg;
+  array[n_bucket] int<lower=0> test;
+  int<lower=0,upper=1> posterior;
+}
+
+transformed data{
+  row_vector<lower=0>[n_bucket] train_pos_rv;
+  row_vector<lower=0>[n_bucket] train_neg_rv;
+  row_vector<lower=0>[n_bucket] test_rv;
+  real n_test;
+
+  train_pos_rv = to_row_vector( train_pos );
+  train_neg_rv = to_row_vector( train_neg );
+  test_rv      = to_row_vector( test );
+  n_test       = sum( test );
+}
+
+parameters {
+  simplex[n_bucket] p_neg;
+  simplex[n_bucket] p_pos;
+  real<lower=0,upper=1> prev_prior;
+}
+
+model {
+  if( posterior ) {
+    target += train_neg_rv * log( p_neg );
+    target += train_pos_rv * log( p_pos );
+    target += test_rv * log( p_neg * ( 1 - prev_prior) + p_pos * prev_prior );
+  }
+}
+
+generated quantities {
+  real<lower=0,upper=1> prev;
+  prev = sum( binomial_rng(test, 1 / ( 1 + (p_neg./p_pos) *(1-prev_prior)/prev_prior ) ) ) / n_test;
+}
+

quapy/model_selection.py

@@ -410,7 +410,7 @@ def group_params(param_grid: dict):
     """
     classifier_params, quantifier_params = {}, {}
     for key, values in param_grid.items():
-        if key.startswith('classifier__') or key == 'val_split':
+        if 'classifier__' in key or key == 'val_split':
             classifier_params[key] = values
         else:
             quantifier_params[key] = values

quapy/protocol.py

@@ -171,7 +171,7 @@ class AbstractStochasticSeededProtocol(AbstractProtocol):
         return sample
 
 
-class OnLabelledCollectionProtocol:
+class OnLabelledCollectionProtocol(AbstractStochasticSeededProtocol):
     """
     Protocols that generate samples from a :class:`qp.data.LabelledCollection` object.
     """
@@ -229,8 +229,17 @@ class OnLabelledCollectionProtocol:
         elif return_type=='index':
             return lambda lc,params:params
 
+    def sample(self, index):
+        """
+        Realizes the sample given the index of the instances.
 
-class APP(AbstractStochasticSeededProtocol, OnLabelledCollectionProtocol):
+        :param index: indexes of the instances to select
+        :return: an instance of :class:`qp.data.LabelledCollection`
+        """
+        return self.data.sampling_from_index(index)
+
+
+class APP(OnLabelledCollectionProtocol):
     """
     Implementation of the artificial prevalence protocol (APP).
     The APP consists of exploring a grid of prevalence values containing `n_prevalences` points (e.g.,
@@ -311,15 +320,6 @@ class APP(AbstractStochasticSeededProtocol, OnLabelledCollectionProtocol):
             indexes.append(index)
         return indexes
 
-    def sample(self, index):
-        """
-        Realizes the sample given the index of the instances.
-
-        :param index: indexes of the instances to select
-        :return: an instance of :class:`qp.data.LabelledCollection`
-        """
-        return self.data.sampling_from_index(index)
-
     def total(self):
         """
         Returns the number of samples that will be generated
@@ -329,7 +329,7 @@ class APP(AbstractStochasticSeededProtocol, OnLabelledCollectionProtocol):
         return F.num_prevalence_combinations(self.n_prevalences, self.data.n_classes, self.repeats)
 
 
-class NPP(AbstractStochasticSeededProtocol, OnLabelledCollectionProtocol):
+class NPP(OnLabelledCollectionProtocol):
     """
     A generator of samples that implements the natural prevalence protocol (NPP). The NPP consists of drawing
     samples uniformly at random, therefore approximately preserving the natural prevalence of the collection.
@@ -365,15 +365,6 @@ class NPP(AbstractStochasticSeededProtocol, OnLabelledCollectionProtocol):
             indexes.append(index)
         return indexes
 
-    def sample(self, index):
-        """
-        Realizes the sample given the index of the instances.
-
-        :param index: indexes of the instances to select
-        :return: an instance of :class:`qp.data.LabelledCollection`
-        """
-        return self.data.sampling_from_index(index)
-
     def total(self):
         """
         Returns the number of samples that will be generated (equals to "repeats")
@@ -383,7 +374,7 @@ class NPP(AbstractStochasticSeededProtocol, OnLabelledCollectionProtocol):
         return self.repeats
 
 
-class UPP(AbstractStochasticSeededProtocol, OnLabelledCollectionProtocol):
+class UPP(OnLabelledCollectionProtocol):
     """
     A variant of :class:`APP` that, instead of using a grid of equidistant prevalence values,
     relies on the Kraemer algorithm for sampling unit (k-1)-simplex uniformly at random, with
@@ -423,14 +414,53 @@ class UPP(AbstractStochasticSeededProtocol, OnLabelledCollectionProtocol):
             indexes.append(index)
         return indexes
 
-    def sample(self, index):
+    def total(self):
         """
-        Realizes the sample given the index of the instances.
+        Returns the number of samples that will be generated (equals to "repeats")
 
-        :param index: indexes of the instances to select
-        :return: an instance of :class:`qp.data.LabelledCollection`
+        :return: int
         """
-        return self.data.sampling_from_index(index)
+        return self.repeats
+
+
+class DirichletProtocol(OnLabelledCollectionProtocol):
+    """
+    A protocol that establishes a prior Dirichlet distribution for the prevalence of the samples.
+    Note that providing an all-ones vector of Dirichlet parameters is equivalent to invoking the
+    APP protocol (although each protocol will generate a different series of samples given a
+    fixed seed, since the implementation is different).
+
+    :param data: a `LabelledCollection` from which the samples will be drawn
+    :param alpha: an array-like of shape (n_classes,) with the parameters of the Dirichlet distribution
+    :param sample_size: integer, the number of instances in each sample; if None (default) then it is taken from
+        qp.environ["SAMPLE_SIZE"]. If this is not set, a ValueError exception is raised.
+    :param repeats: the number of samples to generate. Default is 100.
+    :param random_state: allows replicating samples across runs (default 0, meaning that the sequence of samples
+        will be the same every time the protocol is called)
+    :param return_type: set to "sample_prev" (default) to get the pairs of (sample, prevalence) at each iteration, or
+        to "labelled_collection" to get instead instances of LabelledCollection
+    """
+
+    def __init__(self, data: LabelledCollection, alpha, sample_size=None, repeats=100, random_state=0,
+                 return_type='sample_prev'):
+        assert len(alpha)>1, 'wrong parameters: alpha must be an array-like of shape (n_classes,)'
+        super(DirichletProtocol, self).__init__(random_state)
+        self.data = data
+        self.alpha = alpha
+        self.sample_size = qp._get_sample_size(sample_size)
+        self.repeats = repeats
+        self.random_state = random_state
+        self.collator = OnLabelledCollectionProtocol.get_collator(return_type)
+
+    def samples_parameters(self):
+        """
+        Return all the necessary parameters to replicate the samples.
+
+        :return: a list of indexes that realize the sampling
+        """
+        prevs = np.random.dirichlet(self.alpha, size=self.repeats)
+        indexes = [self.data.sampling_index(self.sample_size, *prevs_i) for prevs_i in prevs]
+        return indexes
 
     def total(self):
         """
@@ -450,7 +480,7 @@ class DomainMixer(AbstractStochasticSeededProtocol):
     :param sample_size: integer, the number of instances in each sample; if None (default) then it is taken from
         qp.environ["SAMPLE_SIZE"]. If this is not set, a ValueError exception is raised.
     :param repeats: int, number of samples to draw for every mixture rate
-    :param prevalence: the prevalence to preserv along the mixtures. If specified, should be an array containing
+    :param prevalence: the prevalence to preserve along the mixtures. If specified, should be an array containing
         one prevalence value (positive float) for each class and summing up to one. If not specified, the prevalence
         will be taken from the domain A (default).
     :param mixture_points: an integer indicating the number of points to take from a linear scale (e.g., 21 will

quapy/tests/test_methods.py

@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ import unittest
 
 from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression
 
+import BayesianKDEy.commons
 import quapy as qp
 from quapy.method.aggregative import ACC
 from quapy.method.meta import Ensemble
@@ -47,7 +48,7 @@ class TestMethods(unittest.TestCase):
             learner.fit(*dataset.training.Xy)
 
             for model in AGGREGATIVE_METHODS:
-                if not dataset.binary and model in BINARY_METHODS:
+                if not BayesianKDEy.commons.binary and model in BINARY_METHODS:
                     print(f'skipping the test of binary model {model.__name__} on multiclass dataset {dataset.name}')
                     continue
 
@@ -61,7 +62,7 @@ class TestMethods(unittest.TestCase):
         for dataset in TestMethods.datasets:
 
             for model in NON_AGGREGATIVE_METHODS:
-                if not dataset.binary and model in BINARY_METHODS:
+                if not BayesianKDEy.commons.binary and model in BINARY_METHODS:
                     print(f'skipping the test of binary model {model.__name__} on multiclass dataset {dataset.name}')
                     continue
 
@@ -76,7 +77,7 @@ class TestMethods(unittest.TestCase):
 
         base_quantifier = ACC(LogisticRegression())
         for dataset, policy in itertools.product(TestMethods.datasets, Ensemble.VALID_POLICIES):
-            if not dataset.binary and policy == 'ds':
+            if not BayesianKDEy.commons.binary and policy == 'ds':
                 print(f'skipping the test of binary policy ds on non-binary dataset {dataset}')
                 continue
 

quapy/tests/test_protocols.py

@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ import unittest
 import numpy as np
 
 import quapy.functional
+from protocol import DirichletProtocol
 from quapy.data import LabelledCollection
 from quapy.protocol import APP, NPP, UPP, DomainMixer, AbstractStochasticSeededProtocol
 
@@ -138,6 +139,31 @@ class TestProtocols(unittest.TestCase):
 
         self.assertNotEqual(samples1, samples2)
 
+    def test_dirichlet_replicate(self):
+        data = mock_labelled_collection()
+        p = DirichletProtocol(data, alpha=[1,2,3,4], sample_size=5, repeats=10, random_state=42)
+
+        samples1 = samples_to_str(p)
+        samples2 = samples_to_str(p)
+
+        self.assertEqual(samples1, samples2)
+
+        p = DirichletProtocol(data, alpha=[1,2,3,4], sample_size=5, repeats=10, random_state=0)
+
+        samples1 = samples_to_str(p)
+        samples2 = samples_to_str(p)
+
+        self.assertEqual(samples1, samples2)
+
+    def test_dirichlet_not_replicate(self):
+        data = mock_labelled_collection()
+        p = DirichletProtocol(data, alpha=[1,2,3,4], sample_size=5, repeats=10, random_state=None)
+
+        samples1 = samples_to_str(p)
+        samples2 = samples_to_str(p)
+
+        self.assertNotEqual(samples1, samples2)
+
     def test_covariate_shift_replicate(self):
         dataA = mock_labelled_collection('domA')
         dataB = mock_labelled_collection('domB')

result_table

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Subproject commit 9d433e3e35b4d111a3914a1e7d3257a8fcf24a9b

setup.py

@@ -111,6 +111,12 @@ setup(
     #
     packages=find_packages(include=['quapy', 'quapy.*']),  # Required
 
+    package_data={
+        # For the 'quapy.method' package, include all files
+        # in the 'stan' subdirectory that end with .stan
+        'quapy.method': ['stan/*.stan']
+    },
+
     python_requires='>=3.8, <4',
 
     install_requires=['scikit-learn', 'pandas', 'tqdm', 'matplotlib', 'joblib', 'xlrd', 'abstention', 'ucimlrepo', 'certifi'],
@@ -124,7 +130,7 @@ setup(
     # Similar to `install_requires` above, these must be valid existing
     # projects.
     extras_require={  # Optional
-       'bayes': ['jax', 'jaxlib', 'numpyro'],
+       'bayes': ['jax', 'jaxlib', 'numpyro', 'pystan'],
        'neural': ['torch'],
        'tests': ['certifi'],
        'docs' : ['sphinx-rtd-theme', 'myst-parser'],